2013 MLB Season Preview Part 6: NL East

 

The expected ascent of Harper into the Trout-ian stratosphere at age 20 figures to be one of the game's biggest stories this year. (Getty Images.)

1. Nationals
PECOTA: 87 wins
My pick: Over

This 87-win projection is one of the oddest numbers spit out by PECOTA as the consensus among fans and experts is that this is the best all-around team in baseball this year. I'm inclined to agree with the latter as no other team is so well-stocked with talent in every area of the roster (manager included) as this year's Nationals. They won 98 games last year with a good Pythagorean record to back it up (in other words, they weren't especially lucky) and look to have greatly improved in the offseason.
Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, back-to-back #1 picks and two of the planet's true phenoms in any sport, are only now just starting to hit their stride. Harper is an early (and seemingly easy) MVP candidate as he enters just his second season at age 20. Those two are surrounded by an infield of power-hitters who are notably great defensive players, the rotation behind Strasburg is stacked, the bullpen's deep enough to withstand inevitable injuries and/or regression, and oh yeah Bryce Harper could go all Mike Trout on us this year. 90 wins easily, possibly somewhere closer to a 100.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 6: NL East

Watching this guy all year ought to be fun

Finishing up our look at each division as the season starts (for real this time) in Miami tonight.

NL East
Suddenly this division looks a lot like its American League cousin. It will basically be a toss-up between the three top teams and a fourth, the Nationals, should really surprise people. I remain hopeful and optimistic in the chances of my Mets this year, too. Hard to quibble with that lineup of theirs.


1. Miami Marlins
PECOTA: 88 wins
My take: Over

Lots of bright bombast from this newly minted organization with a psychedelic stadium, loud-mouthed manager, and one of the most exciting players in the game signing a big contract. For years I thought this team's crappy on-field decision-makers have cost them wins but Ozzie Guillen has an equal reputation for being a smart tactician and a smartass. Look for him to have a huge impact.

They'll certainly be fun to root against as they'll be pretty damn good and possibly very annoying.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 3: NL East

I feel the need to emphasize that, with the six-month 162-game marathon of a season, there is so much variability in the performance of baseball teams and the outcome of the season that it's almost fruitless to discuss them like this. But, we baseball fiends like to blabber about it anyway.


I bring this up also because you have to keep in mind that even the highly intricate forecasting system whose win numbers I'm using, PECOTA, has huge variance. The number they present is basically an average but it's to be understood that the end result could easily fluctuate 5-7 games in either direction. I just received my ESPN Magazine in the mail today which features Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projections for each team and they even look very different (the Phillies are projected to win 95 games as opposed to PECOTA projecting 90).

So there's a lot of expected variance inherent in all of this. I'm not pretending to be an oracle, just using the win numbers as a springboard. It's inevitable that somebody will get hurt, somebody will slump badly, somebody will unexpectedly turn in a huge season, and that's the fun of actually watching the games. I can tell you with confidence, though, that the Nationals will suck.

NL East
(note that the PECOTA numbers are as of March 25th, 2011. They might have changed a bit by now.)

1. Phillies
PECOTA:  90-72
My take: Over

Having assembled what might be one of the best pitching rotations of all time, the Phillies will try to prolong their dynasty which has seen them make it as far as the League Championship Series three years in a row and an increase in regular season wins for four straight seasons (89, 92, 93, 97). The only thing that could prevent this team from reaching 100 victories this season will be their rapidly declining lineup. The team scored just 772 runs last year, their fewest since 2002, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard missed time with injuries. Jimmy Rollins is no longer a capable hitter and Raul Ibanez turns 39 years old this summer. Having 22-year-old rookie Domonic Brown, one of the best offensive prospects in baseball, step into the starting lineup certainly helps but he's got big shoes to fill as the departed Jayson Werth was the team's best hitter last year with a 145 OPS+.

If the offense manages to muster just league-average production, this team will still win a ton of games because of the pitching staff. Their #4 starter, Cole Hamels, struck out 211 hitters last year. Roy Oswalt showed us is still an elite pitcher, leading the NL in WHIP, recording 193 strikeouts, a 2.76 ERA, and 6th-place finish in the Cy Young voting. That's the #3 starter. The top two guys are arguably two of the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball.

It's a long season and so many of the stars in this lineup are over 30, but I see them winning at least 95 games and possibly heading to another World Series. If they suffer any long-term injuries, though, this next team is just about ready to usurp their hold on the division.

2. Braves
PECOTA: 87-75
My take: Over

I spoke very highly of the Braves in my preview last season and I think they look great again this year. It's all about the pitching. Tommy Hanson is the ace of the staff already at age 24 and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a Cy Young candidate this year. Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are veteran groundball machines and 25-year-old Jair Jurrjens is an excellent pitcher when healthy. The bullpen looks to be a major strength with the young flame-throwing lefty/righty duo of Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel at the back end.

On offense, right-fielder Jason Heyward played a full season in the majors last year at age 20 and not only held his own but had a pretty damn good season (.393 OBP). The team as a whole can get on base, they were one of the top OBP teams in baseball last year and adding a homerun threat like Dan Uggla (30+ homers each of the last four years) into the mix along with highly-regarded rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman makes this an improved lineup.

The one area of concern might be their defense, especially with Dan Uggla taking over at second base. Chipper Jones isn't the best defensive player and that makes two liabilities in the infield with a predominantly groundball staff. Alex Gonzalez is still a great defensive shortstop though and I think this deep pitching staff will be able to succeed despite their second baseman's Uggla-ness. It'll be another 90 win season and a trip to the playoffs for this improving Braves team.  

3. Marlins
PECOTA: 84-78
My take: Under

Another NL team with a deep rotation, the Marlins will once again have to settle for floating on the peripheries of contention this year because of some weak spots in the lineup. While having Mike Stanton, projected to bash upwards of 30 homeruns, batting behind Hanley Ramirez all year will certainly put some runs up on the board, giving at bats to hitters like Emilio Bonifacio, Donnie Murphy and Matt Dominguez is badly detrimental to the team's success. The same goes for their decision to put Chris Coghlan, a mediocre left fielder, in charge of covering the vast center field pastures in LandShark Stadium (is that really the name of their stadium these days?). The bullpen also looks to be suspect.

A great rotation will make up for this team's shortcomings and keep them a game or two over .500. I expect a big season from Javier Vazquez who clearly doesn't enjoy pitching in the spotlight and should be content to do his duty in front of a mostly empty home ballpark in Miami. Josh Johnson is a perennial Cy Young candidate, he won the ERA title last year, and Ricky Nolasco continues to be unlucky and unheralded while posting great peripherals (4.45 K/BB ratio last season).


Because they always seem to be in the playoff mix even with a low payroll, no fans, and a jerky owner, I usually enjoy seeing this team succeed. But this year I don't think they'll come close to the Braves or Phils and the lowly Mets might even overtake them.



4. Mets
PECOTA:  78-84
My take: Over

The bumbling, clumsy ol' Mets...

As a Mets fan, at least I can say this: it's more fun to root for a team with imperfections. Even after they revamped their front office with some of the best minds in baseball, the Mets are still the butt of everyone's jokes because their owners got burned by the biggest Ponzi scheme in history and now have to borrow money from the league office in order to make payroll. Things don't look so great on the field either. Most projection systems forecast them to finish in fourth place, their rotation looks like crap and they've got a ton of injury risks in the lineup.

There is room for optimism, though. If there are no injuries, this is the best lineup in the whole division. The top seven hitters can all get on base at an above-average clip and even their new second baseman, rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus (whose name is pronounced exactly like the name of Odysseus' swineherd "Eumaeus") is projected for a solid .330 OBP. David Wright is one of the best hitters in baseball and, when he's at full strength, so is Carlos Beltran though nobody really knows what to expect from him this year after a bunch of knee injuries. Jason Bay had a power-outage (career-low .402 slugging) last year before the lights went out in his skull after smashing it into a fence. He's another roll of the dice. When healthy he's a great hitter. Same with Jose Reyes. With good health, the offense alone could push this team over .500.

The pitching looks to be a fun adventure ride. Each of the top three starters relies exclusively on one pitch. Mike Pelfrey has a sinker, Jon Niese a cutter, and R.A. Dickey a whacky knuckleball. If they could combine those three pitches into a single repetoire, they'd get a lot of people out. Otherwise, they'll struggle to post league average numbers. The rest of the staff doesn't look so good either, although I do think Chris Young can be a very effective pitcher if he's healthy. In the bullpen, they've got so many new faces that I really don't know what to expect.

Every aspect of this team is pretty nebulous, really, nobody knows what to expect out of them this year. It does seem like their ceiling is no more than probably 85 or 86 wins but they could just as easily win 70 games and it wouldn't shock anyone. I think they'll provide plenty of excitement as well as frustration on the way to an 83-win season. And that should be considered a success.

5. Nationals
PECOTA: 71-91
My take: Under

Two Zimmermans and a Werth won't be enough to make this team reach 70 victories. The lineup is bereft of OBP and the pitching staff, aside from Jordan Zimmermann, looks like vintage Pittsburgh Pirates material. I do have a soft spot for Livan Hernandez because his strike zone craftwork is so fun to watch but he got very lucky last year with balls in play and is a good candidate to implode this year. They've got some promising prospects, sure, but they won't be playing any seriously competitive baseball until 2012 at the earliest.

Warmups: Stadium Stories

Baseball season is on its way. Opening Day is a week from tomorrow and, before I start posting my previews for each division, I'd like to first get a little warmed up for baseball writing with a few posts on various things related to baseball. First up is an inventory of all the major league ballparks I've ever been to.

Doubtless, there are better places to spend summer days, summer nights, than in ballparks. Doubtless.
Nevertheless, decades after a person has stopped collecting bubble-gum cards, he can still discover himself collecting ballparks. And not just the stadiums, but their surrounding neighborhoods, their smells, their special seasons and moods.--Thomas Boswell, How Life Imitates the World Series

1. Yankee Stadium
It was here that I attended my first baseball game ever on July 21, 1995. My brother John brought me to a game as a birthday present (it was a few days after my 10th birthday) and the annual outing to Yankee Stadium would become a birthday staple over the next few years until I defiantly renounced my Yankee fanhood right around the same time everybody started jumping on the bandwagon. My favorite player growing up was Jim Leyrtiz, the bat-spinning back-up catcher and first baseman (who was obscure in those days but went on to become a World Series hero). Each year, John would choose the perfect game to attend, somehow always knowing which games Leyritz would be starting. That first game in '95 Leyritz actually started at first base against the Texas Rangers' lefty Kenny Rogers (Leyritz was replaced by Don Mattingly later in the game). The Yanks won 8-3 and the winning pitcher was Dave Eiland who went on to become the Yankees' pitching coach for these last three years.

I saw a bunch of games here over the years with various people: John and I went to Game 1 of the World Series in 1996 when the Yanks got shellacked by the Braves (though I got to see Jim Leyritz catch the whole game); during the summer of my first job in 1999, working as a messenger for the company both my mom and John worked for in lower Manhattan, a co-worker named Lou decided one day that we should skip work and go watch an afternoon Yanks-Blue Jays game from the bleachers; Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe brought me along to an ALDS game against the Tigers in 2006; and I got to say my last goodbyes in an early season game against the Rays in 2008, right before moving to San Diego (that was the Yankees' last season in the old stadium).

2. Veterans Stadium
My Aunt Jeanie brought my brother Billy and I to a game here in '95 or '96. It was Billy's first game ever and it was the Phillies against the San Diego Padres, an interesting augur because ten years later Billy would take up residence across the country in San Diego (which led to me moving out there too). That night, Billy caught a foul ball in his hat (!) that was lined off the bat of Pads' outfielder Melvin Nieves. I remember the stadium was enormous and imposing.

3. Shea Stadium

Shea Stadium in 2003

Although I can't recall my very first visit to this lovable old dump, it was here that I would watch more games than anyplace else over the years. After the Yankees started throwing money around (and dumping players like my old fave Jim Leyritz who went on to lead the Padres to the World Series) I grew sick of them and jumped on the bandwagon of my father's team: the Mets. This was during the years of Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura so it was a fun team to follow. I've been a diehard Mets fan ever since and I get maudlin and misty-eyed thinking about this place because, even though the building was a dump, I had so many great memories here. A few that stick out in my mind are these:

• A Saturday night interleague game against the Angels (John's favorite team) in which the Mets rallied twice in the late innings and won. Marlon Anderson tied the game in the bottom of the ninth with an inside-the-park homerun (!) against current Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. After surrendering a run in the top of the 10th, the Mets put two guys on base with their best hitters, Carlos Beltran and Piazza, coming up. They both struck out. It was all up to Cliff Floyd. He worked a full count, fouled off about a hundred pitches, then struck a monster homerun to win the game. Floyd was hurt so much in his career and is retired now but he provided a bunch of great evenings for Mets fans during a two year stretch. This was probably the most exciting game I've ever witnessed in person. I was sitting with John and his wife Kristina in one of my favorite spots in Shea: near the foul pole in fair territory out in left field.
• A Friday night game against the Phillies that was rain-delayed for about 3 or 4 hours before getting under way. I was at the game with John, Kristina, and my little sister Emily. John and Kristina left early because it was late, wet, and freezing. Me and Em stayed til the bitter end and got to see Carlos Beltran launch a walk-off bomb which had us jumping up and down and screaming with our cheap ponchos on.
• Witnessed the last two games in Montreal Expos history as they played two meaningless matches against the Mets on the last weekend of the season at Shea. The Mets and Expos both stunk that year and I lucked into having tickets to both of the last two games fall into my lap. For the final game, I remember Todd Zeile started at catcher for the Mets in his own last game before retirement. I watched that last game with three of my siblings on a crisp, sunny October afternoon as the Mets won 8-1 and the Montreal squad tossed a bunch of memorabilia to a group of devoted fans gathered above their dugout.

4. Stade Olympique
When it first looked like the Montreal Expos were going to be no more (the league was seriously talking about cutting two teams, they'd eventually settle for moving the Expos to Washington), my brother John, ever ambitious to go on a baseball trip (a trait he instilled in me, thankfully) drove us up to Montreal for a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Expos were a pretty good team in those days and we saw two entertaining games in that funky old stadium including a Sunday afternoon battle won on a walk-off smite by the 'Spos.

5. Toronto's SkyDome *
I'll use a * to indicate the stadiums I visited without getting to see a game there. My old Staten Island pal Joe and his mom brought me up to Toronto and Niagra Falls one year and we stayed in the hotel inside of the Blue Jays' home stadium. It was the offseason, though, so nothing was going on but we did sleep within the stadium and could see everything just outside our window.

6. Turner Field
Went to a game here while visiting my sister Laurie in Atlanta years back. I don't remember much about the game except that we sat in dead center, right next to the Braves bullpen (which has three mounds) and a few relievers, Paul Byrd chiefly among them, threw unopened sunflower seed packs to me and Billy after the game.

7. PNC Park

Another weekend baseball roadtrip with brother John. It was a beautiful, scenic drive through Pennsylvania and the stadium is one of the nicest I've ever seen, situated right at the intersection of Pittsburgh's three rivers. The Pirates played the Dodgers in a couple of forgettable games but the beauty of the stadium and the city sticks out in my mind the most. After the first game there was a fireworks show that was surreal---it incorporated not only the three yellow bridges beyond the outfield wall, but even the skyscrapers across the river. Best fireworks show I've ever seen.

8. Citizens Bank Park
When it first opened I took the train one day by myself (I was 18) and watched a game between the Phils and Tigers. The Tigers were atrocious in those days and the Phillies killed them. Over the years, I went to a handful of games here with my brother James and his three sons. In a homerun derby type of game against the Brewers, the guy sitting directly next to us caught a homerun on a line-drive (and we were in the second deck).


9. U.S. Cellular Field (aka new Comiskey Park)
When my brother Billy finished Navy bootcamp in June 2006, my whole family went over to Chicago for the graduation ceremony. After seeing him for a very short time, we had the whole night to ourselves in Chicago. Of course, I wanted to go see a baseball game and the Dodgers were in town for an interleague game with the Sox. Unfortunately, nobody in my family would join me but I took up my dad's offer to drop me off in the South Side and went to the game by myself. It was a lovely June evening and they were commemorating the 1959 World Series between the Sox and Dodgers. The Pale Hose won behind a great game from Mark Buehrle and I somehow ended up with a White Sox towel and then a White Sox credit card which I used for a few years.


10. Wrigley Field *
The next day after the White Sox game, my dad and I went to Wrigley and took a guided tour of the whole stadium. Great experience and, interestingly enough, the Cubbies were in New York playing the Yankees at the time. When I passed through Chicago on my way to California in the summer of '08, my brother Billy and I walked a lap or two around the outside of the stadium while the Cubbies were playing in...San Diego.

11. Petco Park

Oh Petco, how I love thee. After my first visit in 2006 (a memorably explosive game against the Braves) for my 21st birthday, I saw probably 25 games there over the next four years. I absolutely love this place and have so many good memories from there. Thankfully, many of them are preserved on this very blog but I really, really miss going to games there and hopefully will be back in San Diego one day. When I first moved there I got to live my dream: I was living in a rinky-dink studio apartment only two miles from the stadium so, on more than one occasion, I walked from my house to a baseball game. I could go on forever about this place but I'll stop now.

12. Fenway Park
First, did a stadium tour in the summer of 2007 while in Boston for my cousin Mary's wedding. Then, less than a year later, spent a weekend with Mary and her husband and they took me to a game. We sat out in the bleachers and watched the Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers trade bombs all day. The Sox won 11-7. I've been itching to get back there ever since.

13. Miller Park
During the 2008 cross-country road trip, one of the main stops was in Milwaukee so we could see a baseball game. They played the Arizona Diamondbacks with the roof closed (it was raining outside) and smoked 'em. After the game, Billy and I got to walk along the field because it was Senior Citizens Day and the elderly couple seated next to us said "come with us, you can pretend we're your parents." The people of Milwaukee are great.

14. AT&T Park

Another blurry photo from my clunky old camera.

In August of 2008 I visited San Francisco to look at a grad school I planned to attend, the California Institute of Integral Studies. The school was nice although far too expensive for me but I did get to go see a game while up there. It was an absolutely frigid, cloudy night in August and the Giants played the Braves in a meaningless game when both teams were out of the race. Yet, the stadium was packed and rowdy. This was a rare instance where I didn't stay for the entire game because I was just too cold, didn't prepare for winter weather in August.


15. Citi Field *
Got to do a full tour of the stadium, including dugout and clubhouses while the teams were present. Even spoke to Howard Johnson while he was on an elliptical machine. Did it all while posing as an electrician, hard hat and everything. Amazing and memorable experience, though I won't reveal how I ended up having the opportunity. Don't want to get anyone in trouble.


16. Angel Stadium
Fun, rowdy place. Went there this past summer with my girlfriend for my 25th birthday. Fun time though it was sweltering until the sun finally went down. We sat in the absolute last row of the stadium along the first base line and yet the view of the field was actually pretty good. Our view of the mountain range beyond the stadium was even better.

17. Dodger Stadium

An absolutely gorgeous stadium that seems like it was plopped down in the middle of a dense verdant forest. Went with bro Billy for a September matchup between the classic old New York rivals, the Giants and Dodgers. Sat very close to the field but was annoyed most of the people around us didn't seem to care that much about the game. When the game was over we got to walk right onto the outfield grass and watch a fireworks show, though.

Now that I've listed everything, I realize that during my three years living in California I went to every major league baseball stadium in the state except the Coliseum in Oakland. It's known as one of the worst facilities in professional sports but still, the A's are one of my favorite teams. All the more reason to go back there.

I'm currently situated in the middle of Texas, at least three hours from a pro baseball team but, as a diehard seamhead, I will definitely be taking the long drive to both Houston and Arlington to add those to my list.

Previewing the 2010 NLCS: Phillies vs Giants

Right away the greatest thing about this series (and perhaps of the entire playoffs) is the Game 1 pitching match-up between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum.

Last week, in his first playoff game ever, Halladay threw a no-hitter (joining Don Larsen atop that seemingly unreachable mountain peak) and the next night Lincecum threw a game that somehow might have actually been better, striking out 14 and only allowing 2 hits in a complete game shutout.

Something's gotta give in this terrific match-up and, as the two supreme aces figuratively cancel each other out with their awesomeness, it's the batters that have to step up and outdo each other. While Lincecum might strike out 23 guys and Halladay, if he needed to, could efficiently cruise into the early east coast morning without allowing too many baserunners, one of the lineups has to eventually put up a run on the board in order to win.

I'll take the Phillies to do that. And, in a battle between two teams with excellent pitching staffs, the Phillies' superior lineup should prove to be the difference.

Let's take a look at each team's four best hitters, ranking them by a Baseball Prospectus stat called True Average (it looks like batting average but it's a combination of all their offensive production--power, walks, even steals--in one number).

Phillies: RF Jayson Werth (.322 TAv)
vs
Giants: 1B Aubrey Huff (.316 TAv)

Huff had the best year of his career at 33 and has really seemed to find his happy place in San Francisco, while Werth has been a major part of this new Phillies dynasty since he arrived in 2007, posting his best numbers this season in the last year of his contract. I love Werth's hitting ability, he's all-around awesome with plenty of doubles, homers, walks, and steals and (really going out on a limb here) I anticipate some sort of heroics and fireworks from him in this series as it could be his last go-around with the Philly band.

Phillies: 2B Chase Utley (.306 TAv)
vs
Giants: LF Pat Burrell (.304 TAv)

Utley didn't have his best year because of a thumb injury he had to have surgically repaired which probably effected his hitting, but even in a bit of an off year he still finished #3 among all second basemen in True Average (behind Robinson Cano--almost typed "Canoe"--and Dan Uggla). When at the top of his game, Utley is probably the best hitter in this entire series.

As for Burrell, the former #1-overall pick of the Phillies has enjoyed a renaissance in his twilight. After being dumped off into the trash bin by the Phils last year and then the Rays this year, the Giants scooped him up off the street and he's meshed well with the other early-30s cast offs, putting together his best season at the plate since 2002 by OPS+. Maybe he just didn't like the American League (or having to DH).

Phillies: Catcher Carlos Ruiz (.304 TAv)
vs
Giants: Catcher Buster Posey (.300 TAv)

Cool to see both catchers here. Between catching two no-hitters (and a great pitching staff) this season and also recording his best year with the bat (.400 OBP), Ruiz has been a major part of this Phillies steamroller. He's also becoming something of a postseason star for the Phils as he's put up a .904 OPS in 35 postseason games the last few years. His counterpart here is no slouch, in fact he's pretty awesome and I predict he'll be a local cult figure in San Francisco for years to come. Just like his experienced mitt-mate, Posey has been behind the plate catching for a very successful pitching staff and he's also thwacked. The kid is a line-drive machine, an extremely polished hitter for 22 years old, and he can hit both righties (.832 OPS) and lefties (.955). I'll be very interested to see what he does at the plate against Halladay.

Phillies: 1B Ryan Howard (.299 TAv)
vs
Giants: CF Andres Torres (.293 TAv)

For the Giants, Torres turned in a great season after finally being given a chance to play full-time (at the age of 32) but he's totally collapsed the last month or so. In September he needed an appendectomy and hasn't hit a lick since. Howard gets way too much attention as a "run producer" by the national media but I also think the stat community underrates him a bit. There are few hitters I like to watch more than this guy because there is no one in baseball who annihilates a pitch quite like Ryan Howard. He seems to concentrate his entire 6-4, 255 lb force into the sweet spot of the bat and when he strikes the ball it's as if he can hit it into the next state. Like Utley, he spent some time on the DL and didn't have his best season but I don't expect Howard to have much trouble with either of the Giants' aces (and their strongest weapons) Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Admittedly a small sample size, he's still smashed 7 extra-base hits in 29 at bats against those two combined for his career. I think I see fireworks...

Can the Giants possibly knock off the Phils?
The way they've closed out the season (23-7 since September 1st), the Phillies look like a Harrier jet on autopilot cruising towards a reunion clash with the defending World Series champion Yankees. And so, really, the question going into this series is whether or not the Giants can win. As much as I love Tim Lincecum, I don't think he'll be able to carve through three encounters with this Philly lineup unscathed and neither will Matt Cain. San Francisco's duo of starting lefties, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, pose a threat to the chances of an easy sweep by the Phils and I think it will certainly be an exciting series to watch, but the Phils will take it in 5.

Brief thoughts on the MLB Playoffs

Roy Halladay pitched a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NL Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds today. 'Twas the first postseason no-hitter since Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. In fact, Larsen and Halladay are the only pitchers to ever throw a postseason no-hitter in the entire history of baseball.

This is stunning. We've witnessed history. Though, sadly, I still haven't witnessed it yet because I'm currently watching a DVR recording of the game and I'm only in the 2nd inning.

After a long, fun, exciting and eventful weekend in San Francisco, I haven't had the chance to sit down and write an MLB postseason preview and now a couple of games have already been played. I'm unhappy with myself but, since I didn't get home until Monday night, I really haven't had a chance to analyze the postseason matchups as much as I'd like to. I haven't even been able to read any of my favorite writers' playoff previews.

But I feel the need to say something about it. After all, I've already written so much about baseball on this blog that I can't just neglect to offer some predictions on the final deciding games of the season.

So, here are some thoughts on the first round matchups. (Unfortunately, they're a bit tainted by the timing of this post.)

AL Division Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers
An interesting matchup between two very different teams. The Rays work the count, the Rangers hack the ball all over the place. Cliff Lee's dominance today portends disaster for the Rays as they'll surely have to get through him in another start if they are to win this series. The Rays haven't gotten much from their #2 and 3 starters down the stretch and, while I picked Tampa Bay in the preseason to play against the Phillies in the World Series, I think the Rangers will knock them out in the first round with their extremely powerful and deep lineup.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins
This is a very familiar first round matchup. Previously (in 2003, 2004, and last year) the Twins didn't put up much of a fight against a powerhouse Yankee squad but now the Twins have home field advantage throughout the series and they've also got a much stronger lineup than they had in those days. They'll face a mediocre Yankee pitching staff led by workhorse lefty C.C. Sabathia (134 ERA+) with the same old stalwart Mariano Rivera at the back end. I like this Twins team very much and I think they'll push through the Yanks on their way to their first World Series in 19 years.


NL Division Series

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
I cheated by watching Roy Halladay's no-no already but...I'll take the Phillies. With Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt (three guys who could each be the ace of any major league team), nobody will beat this team. Their lineup is deep, powerful, patient and rugged; they've all been through this before. The Reds have a talented ball club and one of the best hitters in baseball (Joey Votto) but this might even be a sweep for the Phils. Yeah, I'll go with a sweep.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
Sigh...poor Padres. It's amazing that, completely unrelated to their final weekend series to decide the NL West, I found myself in San Francisco for the weekend. A blessing, really, although I didn't get to go see any of the games since they were all completely sold out, standing-room included. It's nice that the Padres made the 162nd game an interesting one but (perhaps this reveals that I'm not a true Padres fan), I think the Giants will be a much more fun team to watch in the postseason. Tim Lincecum alone makes this team a fun one to watch. I rooted for the Padres all year (and went to more of their games than I've ever gone to see any team in my life) but this San Francisco squad belongs in the playoffs. Their pitching is just ridiculously good and their lineup is pretty solid. And the fans actually care, in fact the city was going wild after the Giants won on Sunday. People were driving around beeping their horns and waving flags, excited orange-clad college girls roamed the streets, and I caught a glimpse of a Spanish-language news channel covering the festivities. It's a big deal for the city. San Diego didn't seem to give a shit about the Padres, sadly.

I think this will be the real "wild card" of the postseason and fittingly it's the Wild Card-winning Braves who are involved. This looks like a great matchup to me and I look for an exciting, back-and-forth series that goes the full five games. Jason Heyward will probably do something awesome, we'll undoubtedly have some great pitcher's duels with guys like Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain, Lincecum, Tim Hudson, and even rookie Madison Bumgarner on the mound. It's really gonna be fun. In the end, I'll take the Braves to go to the NLCS for a division rival battle with the Phillies.

Tuesday's Full Moon Augurs Another No-Hitter

Since we've had three straight no-hitters that have all occurred on the night of the full moon (and because no-hit bids are happening often enough) I am predicting that we will see a no-hitter on Tuesday night August 24th which is a full moon. But who will throw it? I've identified some potential candidates out of the moundsmen who are scheduled to pitch that night. We can look at the batting average (since we're talking about a no-hitter, not necessarily a perfect game) of the opposing team and the batting average allowed and overall dominance of the starting pitcher. Keep in mind he'd also have to be a guy who can go the full 9 innings without getting pulled for running up a high pitch count (although that didn't stop Edwin Jackson two full moons ago when he threw 149 pitches).

We've actually got a few strong candidates pitching that night.

Most likely:
Adam Wainwright vs the Pittsburgh Pirates

By far the strongest candidate to throw a no-no on Tuesday, Wainwright is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league right now. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, ranks behind only Roy Halladay with his 5 complete games, and has the 4th most strikeouts in the league. He is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the second-worst batting average in all of baseball.

Other candidates:

Cole Hamels vs Houston Astros

Hamels had a game against St. Louis last month in which he allowed only 2 hits in 8 innings and before his most recent start (a clunker against the Giants) he had a string of 3 consecutive dominant games, striking out nearly ten per game during that span and pitching into the late innings each time. The Astros as a team are batting .246 on the year (ahead of only Pittsburgh in the NL) even though they've actually played a bit better of late. If it's not a no-hitter, it should still be a pretty dominant game for Cole Hamels.

R.A. Dickey vs Marlins, Josh Johnson vs Mets
The knuckleballing sensation known as R.A. Dickey nearly threw the first no-hitter in Mets history last week, giving up only 1 hit (to the pitcher Cole Hamels) while throwing a complete game. The Marlins rank in the bottom third in the majors with a .255 batting average and have been no-hit already this year but they've got plenty of threats in their lineup, particularly Hanley Ramirez. While Ramirez is having a subpar season by his own standards (117 OPS+ after three seasons above 140) he's still an excellent hitter and, as the leadoff man, will be granted at least 3 chances to hit Dickey's knuckler.

Opposing Dickey and the Mets will be the towering (6 foot 7) ace for the Marlins, Josh Johnson. For most of the year Johnson has been nearly untouchable but he's slowed down recently and was even knocked out of a game in the 4th inning by the Reds. The Mets are pretty bad in the batting average department (.248) and in Johnson's 12 innings against them so far this year they've batted just .182 against him. They've been pretty pathetic at the plate lately, culminating in a weak showing in Pittsburgh. They were held to 1 run on 5 hits earlier today against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Should be an interesting pitcher's duel in Queens.


Gio Gonzalez vs Cleveland Indians
He's prone to wildness so he might rack up a high pitch count but he still has the potential to dominate, especially against a flimsy Cleveland lineup (they were the victims in the famous Armando Galarraga perfect game incident). Opposing hitters are batting just .227 against Gonzalez this year.


Not likely but certainly possible:


Josh Beckett vs Seattle Mariners
Beckett hasn't had a good year at all so far. While his strikeout and walk numbers are fine (8 Ks and 2 walks per 9 IP), he's been shelled for an OPS against of .856. But on this night he'll be facing the absolute worst lineup in major league baseball. The Mariners are hitting a pathetic .238 as a team.

Gavin Floyd vs Baltimore Orioles
I see Floyd as the wild card of the group. He's been hit hard in his past two starts and these Baltimore Orioles he'll be facing are playing much better than the lowly O's I saw earlier this year at Petco. Floyd has occasionally put it all together and pitched some dominant games this year including a game at Wrigley in which he had a no-hitter going with two outs in the seventh inning. I don't think he'll get one against Showalter's boys but he belongs on this list as someone who might do it.

One-In-A-Million Shot Bonus:

Ervin Santana vs Tampa Bay Rays
Nothing against Santana, but this is just kind of a joke because the Rays have already been no-hit twice this year and once last year. In all seriousness though, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the Tampa Bay Rays, who might be the best team in major league baseball (or, at worst, the second-best behind the Yankees), will go hitless in a game for the third time this season. Santana has three complete games already this year and has been pretty stingy in his two most recent starts, giving up 4 hits or less in both games. It would be a memorable and historic event if the Rays were the victims of a no-hitter again but perhaps not as strange as having four consecutive no-hitters occur on the night of a full moon.

Is this also an example of Synchronicity?

Earlier today I posted about tonight's extremely rare lunar eclipse featuring a large (illusively large) moon because of its proximity to the horizon. Funky, weird things are thought to happen during full moons. I think weird full moon occurrences represent a perfect example of what Jung means when he's describing how the concept of synchronicity conflicts with the entire premise of our inherent cause-and-effect perspective on things. The full moon does not cause people to act crazy or weird events to happen, it is instead a coincidental and noticeable pattern in time.

Anyway, I find it very interesting, astounding perhaps, that on a night when we have a full moon and a rare lunar eclipse, we've also had some rare and strange occurrences in the evening's baseball games. I've already mentioned Edwin Jackson's 8-walk 148-pitch no hitter (against a strong offensive team, albeit one that's now been held hitless thrice in the last calendar year) but by far the weirdest thing that happened tonight was the Blue Jays-Phillies game. Nothing particularly strange from the action on the field but the game itself was strange: it was a home game for the Toronto Blue Jays and a road game for the Phillies...but was played at Citizen's Bank Park in Philadelphia. This rarity happened because major league baseball changed the location of the game due to security concerns in Toronto with the G20 summit on global economy taking place.

The Phillies won the game 9-0 led by their ace pitcher Roy Halladay, acquired from (guess who?) the visiting home team Toronto Blue Jays over the winter. Halladay also threw the last (official) no-hitter prior to Edwin Jackson's tonight. Weird.

(And here's the info behind that awesome picture.)

**Edit: One more thing that was crazy (but not exactly unusual) from today's baseball action: Carlos Zambrano's tirade after pitching a miserable one inning and exiting the game versus the White Sox in Chicago.

***Edit Part 2: Looking back at my post from last month, Roy Halladay's no-hitter (and the other wild baseball events that night) occurred with a full moon in the sky.

A Memorialable Baseball Day

What a friggin' day of Baseball. As summer's solstice approaches, the advancing 2010 baseball season reached its apex again today. All sorts of colorful varieties of the summer game were displayed radiantly today, the first day of a three-day weekend. When the sun went down, an orange-tinted waning full moon oversaw our game's second perfect pitching outing of the year already.

A brief overview:

-Roy Halladay threw a perfect game tonight against the Marlins in Miami. It's already the 2nd perfect game pitched in the major leagues this season and third in the last two years although it's only the 20th ever, including two that happened in the 1800s. Joe Posnanski perfectly captured the uniqueness of what we've been witnessed.

-The Mets and Brewers played an action-filled ballgame wearing Negro League throwback uniforms. The Mets were the New York Cubans from the 1930s and the Brewers were the Milwaukee Bears circa 1923. In stark contrast to Halladay's gem, both starting pitchers in this game were knocked out before the 4th inning as there was plenty of offense, 14 runs in all including two homers from Corey Hart with the Brewers beating the Mets 8-6. John Axford, sporting a classic handle-bar mustache, closed out the game for the Brewers.

-After seeing their starting pitcher take an A-Rod missile of a line drive off the side of his head (it hit his skull so hard that it bounced almost 300 feet away), the Cleveland Indians stormed back at Yankee Stadium to beat the Bronx Bombers 13-11 sending their fans home disappointed and unhappy.

-Gabe Gross made this ridiculous catch in the Tigers-A's game. Notice how he couldn't stop smiling afterward. This is a kid's game after all.

-After hitting a walk-off grandslam in the bottom of the 10th inning in Anaheim, Kendry Morales jumped on home plate so hard he broke his leg.

-In the only game that my TV let me watch, the Cubs' Carlos Silva, who was literally dumped on the Cubs after embarrassing himself for two years as a horrible waste of money in Seattle, baffled the Cardinals offense with 11 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings. He's now 7-0 on the year. Salvation thy name is Carlos Silva.

And plenty of other fun stuff happened.

The Stanley Cup Finals also began today with a hard-hitting and exciting 6-5 game won by the Chicago Blackhawks. And the Lakers are going to the NBA Finals again to play the Celtics (again). It is a damn good time to be a sports fan.

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 3: NL East

NL East
Found a cool article over at Baseball Analysts showing the spread of different statistical forecasting systems and how they predict each division to play out. My assessment of the National League East  is right along the lines of what the forecasting systems predict.

1. Phillies
PECOTA: 90-72
My take: Over
They won 93 games and the National League pennant last year playing with a bad bullpen and a so-so starting rotation. And, according to Baseball Prospectus' WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) stat, Jimmy Rollins was less than half as valuable as he was in 2008 (2.5 wins down from 5.9 the year before). PECOTA forecasts a bounce back season from Rollins (a .284/.342/.467 batting line) and they have upgraded their only real glaring offensive hole at thirdbase, signing Placido Polanco to replace punchless Pedro Feliz. They didn't have Cliff Lee for a full season last year but now they'll have an even better pitcher, possibly the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay presumably for the whole season (pending an injury of course but he's been extremely durable). With Halladay and another bounce-back candidate in Cole Hamels (horrible luck last season) atop a rotation that also features stalwart moundsman Joe Blanton and lefty J.A. Happ, they should be able to match-up with just about anybody. The bullpen was a nightmare last season but it's hard to imagine they'll keep letting Brad Lidge take the ball in the 9th inning if he continues to suck. In the end, I see them matching last year's 93 wins and returning to the NL Championship. And they just might face these guys:

2. Braves
PECOTA: 86-76
My take: Over
I've thought about this team alot lately. They're a popular pick to dethrone the Phillies and deliver Bobby Cox a division title in his final season in the dugout and the more I read about this team, ponder them, and look over their projections, the more I like them. First off, they had terrific pitching last year. By FIP or Fielding-Independent Pitching (a stat that filters out the defense's contribution to pitching performance) they were the best team in all of baseball. They traded away Javier Vazquez who was great for them last year but the rotation is still loaded. Jair Jurrjens (what a wonderful name) has established himself as an ace and they'll have a full season of Tommy Hanson, their best pitching prospect whom PECOTA projects to have a 3.39 ERA in 192 innings this year. They lost some important bullpen contributors in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano but their replacements (Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito) should step in ably and they still have the bespectacled submariner from down under, Peter Moylan.
The lineup doesn't seem to have any weaknesses (unless Troy Glaus gets hurt or doesn't hit), Baseball Prospectus' #2 prospect Jason Heyward is stepping into the mix this year at age 20, and they've even got a nice-looking bench. Because of all that, they are my pick for the NL Wild Card and I know they will provide many exciting games playing against the Phils who won't relinquish their crown without a fight. I'll say: Phillies 93 wins, Braves 92.

3. Marlins
PECOTA: 80-82
My take: Over
I guess it's about time I divulge my rooting interests. Well, it's complicated. I've already mentioned my proximity to the place where the Padres play their baseball games and I do like to see them succeed. At heart I'm a Mets fan but I also consider myself a serious fan of the Oakland Athletics (mainly because of Billy Beane) and I root for the Red Sox as well as the Padres. The pattern (aside from the Mets) is an interest in the teams that highly value sabermetrics and objective analysis and use that as a main tool in team planning and game strategy. The Marlins do not have a reputation for relying or emphasizing statistics in their evaluations of players and decision-making but, as a team with a cheap douchebag owner that often has to let its expensive star players leave (Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, AJ Burnett), playing in a football stadium where nobody comes to see their games, they nevertheless seem to stay in the mix every single year. I find it hard not to like them because, despite their disadvantages, the people in the front office seem to know what they're doing. 

They feature perhaps the most exciting player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez as well as a few sluggers in Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and Cody Ross (a 5-foot-9 extremely rare lefty-throwing/righty-hitting outfielder whose main strength is his popgun homerun swing) in a what could be a pretty strong lineup with sophomore sensation Chris Coghlan leading off. They scored 4.95 runs per game when he batted leadoff last year (106 games)--a rate that would've been 3rd in the NL if he'd been penciled in there all year. The rotation is led by two 27-year-olds coming into their prime: certified ace Josh Johnson and the extremely underrated Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco had a fluky year last year, he struck out 195 while only walking 44 (only two NL pitchers had a better ratio) but ended up with a 5.06 ERA and had to spend some time in the minors to collect himself. I expect him to have a huge year in 2010 and help lead the Marlins to be a factor in the annual late-season Wild Card chase, falling short to stronger teams like the Braves and Rockies in the end.


4. Mets
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Even

Ah, the Mets. The team of my youth, the team I used to go see at Shea Stadium a dozen times a year back when things looked promising for their future. Now they're once again a laughingstock. As indicated in Baseball Prospectus 2010, they spent $43 million dollars (35% of their payroll!) on players who sat out with injuries last season. They're already starting off this season next week with their starting centerfielder, shortstop, and firstbaseman all on the shelf and even with those guys in the lineup they're not projected to do well anyway because of a terrible pitching staff. It's pretty sad, although such a state of crapitude seems to be the overlying theme for the Mets in their history. Steve Phillips then Jim Duquette. Now, Omar Minaya has brought us here. Where are we? Well, some scattered remains of a once-hopeful contender can be seen in the rubbish: an ace (Johan Santana), a duo of young superstars (Wright and Reyes), a highly-paid Hall of Fame centerfielder (Carlos Beltran), some prospects-turned-projects (John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey). Throw in Jason Bay to knock in a few runs and this might be a playoff contender, but half or all of those guys might get hurt and perpetuate the New York City tabloid circus. I'm with PECOTA, although it wouldn't surprise me to see them around the 80-82 record CHONE predicts for them. With some luck they'll be in the playoff mix but I imagine the baseball gods will avoid coming anywhere near this dung heap.

5. Nationals
PECOTA: 74-88
My take: Even
They're inching closer toward respectability. They only won 59 games last year but their run totals suggested they were closer to a 70-win team and such huge discrepancies don't tend to carry over from one year to the next. The Nats are led by a legitimately good offense with Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman both good for 30+ homeruns and Josh Willingham offering solid production. But it just about ends there. Their pitching is absolutely putrid. They tried 30 different pitchers last year and gave up 56 more runs than any other team in the NL. Aside from Mound Messiah Stephen Strasburg who should be playing for them at some point this season, their only bright spot is supposed to be John Lannan, the guy who struck out fewer batters per 9 innings than any other qualified pitcher last year (162 innings needed to qualify).
Their offense will win them some games before the Strasburg Era officially begins and then it's all chaos from there.