2013 MLB Season Preview Part 5: NL Central

Continuing our series of predictions for each division, this time I'll keep the comments short as the season is already under way and these need to get finished.

NL Central
The Astros are no longer around to serve as a punching bag for the rest of the division, but the story here remains the same: a battle for first between the two teams who wear red. 

1. Cardinals
PECOTA: 83 wins
My pick: Over

Yadi shall lead the way for the Cards.

A very strong offensive team with one of the top hitting prospects in baseball (Oscar Taveras) still stuck in the minors waiting for a spot to open up. They'll score plenty, it's just a question of whether the rotation holds up without stalwart Chris Carpenter around. They've got a few young pitchers who'll end up either in key relief roles or starting, I think it'll all work out fine as one of the game's best catchers Yadier Molina will be behind the plate to guide the new blood.

2012 NLCS Preview: Cardinals vs. Giants

The National League Championship Series matches up the last two World Series winners, both of whom were surprise winners at the time. In 2010, the Giants managed to get past the loaded Philadelphia Phillies and went on to knock off a superior Texas Rangers team for the World Series. The Cards also upset the Phillies on their path to the championship, where they too upended the Rangers last year.

Now the two will duke it out for another NL pennant. It's a very tight matchup, closer than I expected before looking at the numbers. The Cardinals are clearly a very deep offensive team, even having lost Albert Pujols they actually scored a few more runs this year (765) than last (762). Carlos Beltran bats 2nd in their lineup and currently has the best career postseason numbers (.375/.488/.817 AVG/OBP/SLG) of any player in history, Babe Ruth et al included. With their middle infielders Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma showing plenty of offensive ability in toppling the Washington Nationals, there really isn't a weak spot in the whole lineup from top to bottom.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 5: NL Central

NL Central

Coming down to the finish line here, I'd like to get this completed before the season begins later tonight. Will thus limit each team's preview to no more than two sentences...

1. Brewers
PECOTA: 86 wins
My take: Even

The top-flight pitching staff is backed up by a much-improved defense. Losing Prince Fielder certainly hurts but the lineup still has plenty of pop.

2. Reds
PECOTA: 85 wins
My take: Even

Solid all-around team in every respect, the addition of Mat Latos keeps them contending all season long. The result, thanks to some inevitable blunders from manager Dusty Baker, will be just short of the postseason.

3. Cardinals
PECOTA: 89 wins
My take: Under

Overall, the team looks surprisingly well-off despite losing one of the best players in team history. Besides Pujols, there's been far too much change here for them to keep up the championship pace, though.

4. Cubs
PECOTA: 74 wins
My take: Even

All eyes are on Theo Epstein and his gang of mighty men to see how they will go about turning this underwhelming group into contenders. If they don't immediately gut the team, the Cubs might surprise some people.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 72 wins
My take: Even

At this point, they've had the worst 20-year stretch of any team in sports history so I'll be pulling for them to improve. Not bloody likely, though.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 62 wins
My take: Way under

How long can the DisAstros go? Certainly less than 50 wins and maybe a shot at the most losses ever.

Satisfying Baseball Fix With Classic Clips

As the baseball season slowly approaches I find myself hungry for actual game footage. The Spring Training highlights are boring so I've found other resources.

The men in charge of Major League Baseball's media department have been notoriously strict about letting any game footage (whether from the past or present) appear on YouTube or anywhere else not owned by them. This is not only a major pain in the ass for devout fans of the game but it's also a huge missed opportunity to promote their product. There are nearly 100 years worth of World Series footage and an unthinkable mass of regular season video material in their vaults and yet nobody ever sees any of it.

Thankfully, YouTube does have a surprising amount of old World Series films. You can see clips of the 1937 Fall Classic between the Yankees and New York Giants; regular TV footage of the 1961 Series with at-bats by Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle, and Yogi Berra; highlights from the '55 World Series when the Brooklyn Dodgers defeated the Yankees; Cardinals legend Bob Gibson defeating the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Game 7 of the 1967 World Series and plenty more similar clips.

(More after the jump...)

World Serious

The story of this blog over the past few months has been that its author can't find the time to write on it. One of the reasons for this has been the exhilarating and absorbing finish to the baseball season, so with the World Series starting tonight I figure I must say a few things about it while I sit here in a coffeeshop/restaurant eating lunch.

Despite the negative feelings for the Cardinals I've expressed a few times on this blog, I will be rooting for them to win what should be an exciting series against the Texas Rangers. Why? Because the unprecedented run this team has been on since the beginning of September and on into the playoffs has swept me up into their bandwagon. And I really don't like the Texas Rangers.

The story for both teams is remarkably similar: high-scoring offense and deep bullpens. Both teams received minimal contributions from their starting pitchers throughout the playoffs, finding themselves calling upon relievers early on then mixing-and-matching throughout the games. Of course, as unpredictable as baseball always is, you can expect the starting pitchers to play the biggest role in this World Series.

Texas boasts an incredibly deep and potent offensive attack, with five straight excellent hitters bunched up in the middle of the lineup. Really, it'd be hard to put together a better lineup than theirs, perhaps the only weakness is that there are so many right-handed hitters (Josh Hamilton and David Murphy being the only lefties) and you can expect Tony LaRussa to exploit that with his slew of hard-throwing righty relievers. The Cardinals also have a terrific offense; they led the National League in runs, on-base percentage, OPS, and tied for the lead in slugging percentage. They are led by the best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols, and as Rany Jazayerli pointed out in his World Series preview, Pujols traditionally plays even better in the playoffs. I'm really looking forward to seeing the Rangers' late game flame-throwers having to face off against Pujols.

On the run-prevention side, the Texas defensive attack (baseball is the only sport where the defense has the ball so "attack" is apt) combines to be much better than the Cardinals. The lineups are so good that they kind of cancel each other out, but it's the run prevention part that separates these two teams so let's look at that real quick:

Rotation
The Rangers possess an extremely rare combination of three southpaw starters who are all capable of throwing in the mid-90s. The other guy, Colby Lewis, is right-handed and doesn't throw very hard but he's still a pretty damn good pitcher. The Cardinals counter with the righty/lefty combo of Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia atop their rotation, both of them succeed by keeping the ball low and generating ground balls. Their third starter Edwin Jackson is a very good pitcher (he has nearly identical strikeout-to-walk numbers compared to Carpenter and Garcia) but he really hasn't shown it lately, and fourth-starter Kyle Lohse isn't anything special at all but if he can keep the game close into the 5th inning, he'll have done his job. The Rangers have the clear advantage here.

Bullpen
General Manager Jon Daniels has assembled an absolutely fearsome bullpen here and they are a major part of why the Rangers are here in the World Series. As I already mentioned, it will be really exciting to watch closer Neftali Feliz pitch against the middle of this St. Louis lineup. The Cardinals also relied heavily on their bullpen on their way here, in fact, their funky bullpen is one of the reasons I've come to like these Cardinals. They've got some characters in there and they can all pitch. Jason Motte is the closer and he's one of the meanest looking guys in baseball with beady eyes and a lumberjack beard, his short-armed, explosive throwing motion and 100-mph heat amplifies his menacing aura. I think the pundits and analysts give the Rangers the advantage here but with LaRussa pushing the buttons and showing a clear willingness to break from conventional bullpen usage (the team's saves leader Fernando Salas pitched in the 3rd inning already in this postseason), the Cardinals have the edge.

Fielding
Not only is Albert Pujols the best hitter on the planet, he's also the best defensive first baseman in baseball and probably one of the best defensive players in all of baseball at any position. Yes, he is that good. The Cardinal catcher Yadier Molina is also one of the best players at his position but the rest of the St. Louis defense is very poor. Nick Punto is a punch-line in sabermetric circles for his poor hitting, but he's a great fielder and if he gets any starts for the Cards he'll certainly improve their D. The Rangers have a clear advantage here as they've got a great defense. The keystone combo of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler will certainly make some highlight reel double plays in this series and third baseman Adrian Beltre is one of my favorite players to watch in the field.

We saw what happened to the Brewers and their crappy defense in the NLCS, so it's certainly possible that the Cardinals might lose some games by not catching the ball. The Rangers as a team struck out fewer than anyone else in their league and the Cardinal pitchers usually don't strike out too many hitters anyway so there should be plenty of balls in play and plenty of opportunities for Lance Berkman to make a mess of things out in right field.

With the Cardinals having home field advantage (due to the National League winning the All-Star Game, if that makes any sense), a tactically superior manager, and the Albert Pujols factor, I think they make up for their shortcomings against an extremely well-rounded Texas team. The Rangers are favored to win and they look like a superior team on paper, but there's something about these Cardinals that reminds me of the 2004 Red Sox, a team that just looked like you could put them out on the field against anybody in any atmosphere and they would tough it out and find a way to win. Those Red Sox actually beat the Cardinals in the World Series that year in another matchup of powerhouse (the Cards won 105 games that year) versus Wild Card underdog, and the Red Sox steamrolled the birds in a sweep.

I think this shapes up to be one of the best World Series matchups we've seen in a long time and I would put my money on the Cardinals to win in a long series with many tough battles. My pick: Cardinals in 7.

(One last note: the title of this post comes from my old boss in San Diego. He had a very heavy Croatian accent despite three decades living here in the U.S. and he always pronounced World Series "World Serious." Also, it's common for people to think that American Major League Baseball is being conceited by calling its championship round the "world series" but the way I see it, the MLB teams feature the greatest players from all around the world competing against each other. That's why players from Japan and everywhere else come here to play in the major leagues. Just wanted to point that out.)

Pennant Picks

Baseball events often serve as a time marker for me. I can look back at past exciting or historic events happening in baseball games and recall where I was at the time, what was going on in my life or in the world at large.

I watched the first game of the Yankees-Mets Subway Series in 2000 on a little portable television in the back of a car while my dad drove me and some friends home from a Saturday evening hockey game in Long Island. When the Yanks and Red Sox started their marathon Game 7 in 2003 (eventually won by Aaron Boone's walkoff homer) I was playing a roller hockey game for my college team at an outdoor rink in Chelsea Piers. I saw the White Sox win the World Series in 2005 at Mickey Mantle's restaurant near Central Park while on a date with a girl from Italy. 

The last two Octobers I watched from the living room of my San Diego apartment and now I've witnessed the excitement of this year's pennant chase here in Austin. The classic deciding game Friday night between the Phillies and Cardinals will forever be etched in my memory as I watched it unfold in amazement while eating baked ziti and sipping beer at an overpriced bar/restaurant down the road. (I attempted to watch the first game of that series at another restaurant last week but once the Texas Longhorns game started, every television in the bar was switched to that crappy meaningless game against Iowa State and I was screwed. Will certainly always remember that, too.)

I wasn't alive in the late 1960s but from watching Ken Burns' baseball documentary over and over again, I've come to associate the baseball events going at that time with the social upheavals and global events going on at the same time. In that documentary series, each decade gets its own lengthy treatment and the 60s is by far my favorite. The Civil Rights movement, Vietnam, the assassination of JFK (and RFK, Malcolm X, and MLK) aren't ignored, in fact they are perfectly weaved in to the baseball events in that decade as Bob Gibson's Cardinals dominated the era, Carl Yastrzemski carried the Sox in '67, the Orioles built a powerhouse and Washington DC nearly burnt to the ground after rioting in response to the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Protesters burned their draft cards and choppers flew over the jungles of Saigon.

As incredible as the crescendo of this baseball season has been, it will always be associated in my mind with the movement springing up in downtown Manhattan (my former stomping grounds) and spreading across the nation, the peaceful uprising and dissent against oppressive oligarchy and austerity measures. I confess to being a severe baseball addict, but as exciting and engaging as it has all been this year, the Occupy Wall Street news has been competing for my attention since it began in mid-September. The baseball games have often absorbed me in transfixion but at the same time my thoughts are constantly with the people out sleeping on the cement in the cold New York autumn.

Now, on to the baseball...

It seemed like nothing could touch the melodrama and excitement of the regular season's conclusion, but then we witnessed a Divison Series that featured four tightly fought matchups, three of which went down to the final game, and two of which saw huge upsets. The Rays series only lasted four games but the last three of those were all nail-biters. Now the smoke has cleared and we're left with just four teams in matchups that look to be just as competitive and entertaining as anything we've seen all year. Here are some thoughts on the two series we will watch over the next week.

National League Championship Series
Cardinals (90-72) vs. Brewers (96-66)

The Brewers were a popular World Series pick but I don't think anybody imagined they would be in this position, facing their sworn enemies for the NL pennant. The Cardinals don't belong here. They lost their best pitcher before the season began, were written off as a contender in Spring Training, and were trailing the final playoff spot by 9 games in early September. When they managed to climb all the way back into it and win on the final day, that only guaranteed them a match against the best team in the major leagues, the 102-win Phillies. Well, they've slayed yet another dragon and here they are.

This looks to be an extremely close and exciting series. These two teams genuinely don't like each other, they had some bean ball incidents this summer, lots of trash talk, and they represent two different poles on the spectrum---the Cards are the gritty, scrappy veterans and the Brewers are young, loud-mouthed and here for the first time. The Cardinals have been doing this for a good 12 years now, this is their 6th appearance in an LCS during that span while the Brewers organization had not won a playoff series since 1982. At that time they were still in the American League, led by manager Harvey Keunn, they were known as "Harvey's Wallbangers" and they went all the way to the World Series where they lost to... the Cardinals! (Dan Okrent's great book 9 Innings covers those Brewers at length.)

On the field, the teams are closely matched in the rotation, bullpen, defense, and lineup. While the Brewers boast a superb top-three starting pitchers in Yovani Gallardo, Zack Grienke, and Shaun Marcum, the Cardinals' top-three are no slouches and perfectly capable of matching up against the much more heralded Milwaukee trio. Chris Carpenter leads the St. Louis bunch with his alliterative appellation and strike zone carving repertoire, young lefty Jaime Garcia put up basically the same numbers as Carpenter in fewer innings, and Edwin Jackson is capable of matching zeroes with anybody the Brewers have. Both teams run deep in the bullpen, too.

Both teams pack high-octane offenses mostly led, again, by superior trios. For Milwaukee it's Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks in the heart of the lineup while St. Louis relies on Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. Combined, those trios match up pretty well although maybe the Cards have a very slight edge. Outside of those, the role players seem to tilt in the Cardinals' favor. Third baseman David Freese would be a household name by now if he could ever stay healthy because the boy can hit. Yadier Molina emerged as one of the better hitting catchers in baseball this year, shortstop Rafael Furcal has looked like his old self in this postseason, and the Cardinals even boast a pretty strong bench (that micromanager Tony LaRussa loves to employ).

In comparison, the Brewers have a few more liabilities on offense. Guys like Casey McGehee, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jonathan Lucroy can pop out a homerun every now and then but they had poor seasons overall. Neither team is any good defensively, although I think analysts are sometimes a bit too overzealous in dismissing the Brewers in that respect.

Really, the teams are so closely matched that there's no way to pinpoint a particular weakness that will decide the series. It should be one for the ages, perhaps the best LCS since the Red Sox and Yankees in 2004. I prefer to see the Brewers win and they are my pick because they have homefield advantage but I think it will go all 7 games and feature plenty of fireworks.

American League Championship Series
Tigers (95-67) vs. Rangers (96-66)

This matchup, to me, looks closer than it really is. The Rangers are a far superior team, in fact, they were probably the best team in all of baseball this year (Baseball Prospectus has a rather complicated extraction that bears this out). Jon Daniels deserves a lot of credit, he was the youngest general manager in baseball history when he stepped into the role for the Rangers in 2005 at the age of 28, and he has built this team into a well-rounded, deep powerhouse.

Let me get this out of the way: I live in Texas right now and the team Daniels has assembled is an admirable one, but I'm not a fan of this team at all. Eric over at Pitchers & Poets recently wrote a nice piece about why he's pulling for the Rangers despite their shady associations (George W. Bush being the most prominent one) but I'm not falling for it. I'd certainly like to root for this team because of a guy like Jon Daniels and what he's done here, but I've been to the ballpark, I've watched this team for years as an Oakland A's fan and I just don't like them.

As I wrote earlier this year, the Detroit Tigers are a team that I can root for. They represent a decrepit, broken down and demoralized city that has hosted baseball since the beginning of the American League. Detroit is a rich sports town with a great baseball history. Texas? I couldn't watch a Texas Rangers playoff game at a bar because a fucking Texas-Iowa State college football game was on. I can't root for that kind of stupidity. Anywho...

The Rangers are an all-around powerhouse that can beat up any team and their dad. Adrian Beltre blasted three homeruns in one game the other day and he's probably the third-best hitter on this team (behind Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton). The lineup is absolutely scary. If there's one thing that might be in the Tigers' favor here, it's that there are so many right-handed hitters in the lineup and Detroit has an all-righty pitching staff but the Rangers don't seem to care what hand the pitcher throws with. They'll blast off against anybody. The Detroit offense can put up runs too, most of them will come from Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta is an interesting player not just because of the misplaced "h" in his name but because he seemingly resurrected his career in the Motor City and renewed his status as an offensive threat. Alex Avila, the rookie catcher, had a spectacular season at the plate but so far in the playoffs he hasn't shown up (just 1 hit in 16 at-bats).

Like every other part of this team, the Texas pitching staff runs deep. If five starters were needed in a playoff series, they could throw out five great ones, but they only need four so Alexi Ogando was put into the bullpen and we all saw what he's capable of last night (97 mph fastballs at the corners). This very interesting rotation boasts three tough lefties and a righty who remade himself after a stint in Japan. The Japanese league guy seems to be the only liability here as Colby Lewis followed up his superb 2010 campaign with an up-and-down season this year (he pitched fine, just gave up way too many homers). Detroit depends on their workhorse Justin Verlander, the easy Cy Young choice this season, but he seems to be losing steam this past month or so. They'll need him to pick it up and possibly pitch 3 times in this series if they hope to win. I predicted Max Scherzer would have a huge year for Detroit before the season, but he didn't. He pitched well with plenty of strikeouts but, like Colby Lewis, he surrendered a bunch of homeruns. I worried about that coming into the playoffs but Scherzer pitched great against the Yankees in two appearances so look for him to be a big part of this series.

Joaquin Benoit basically became a national hero with his heroic relief effort for Detroit against the Yankees to seal their demise in the previous round, and the Tigers do have a nice bullpen. But nothing comes close to this Rangers relief group. As I mentioned, they brought Alexi Ogando out of the pen in Game 1 yesterday and he was nearly untouchable. They also have two of the best relievers in baseball over the last few years, Mike Adams and Koeji Uehara, at their disposal and then flame-throwing Neftali Feliz as the final piece. Even their middle-relief or platoon pitching options are solid. It's gonna be really tough to score against the group late in the game.

I really don't like the Rangers but there's no denying how strong they are as a team. While I will be rooting hard for the underdog Detroit to knock them out, I don't realistically see it happening. My pick: Rangers in six.

Baseball's Insufflation

Two weeks without any posts. Not a nice way to treat a perfectly good blog.

As I've indicated a few times recently, my life is pretty hectic right now, at least relative to my past periods of prosperous blog posting. In the slivers of free time that I do have, my writing has been confined to notebook scribbles so as to keep my writing game sharp. I had hoped to start a monumental study and breakdown of Ulysses here at this blog by now but I've got a few things I'd like to get out of the way first and they're moving along very slowly.

Three straight weeks of family visitors certainly threw me off too, though it was nice to see familiar faces. As great as Austin has been to me thus far, I haven't made any real friends because I haven't really socialized all that much. Although, in an incredible example of synchronicity, a good friend of mine from San Diego who I had drifted away from in the months before moving to Austin actually relocated at the exact same time and now lives about 10 minutes up the road from me.

The baseball season's progressively dramatic developments have kept me occupied as well. Weeks ago I had drafted a blogpost about the complete lack of drama and close pennant races in baseball at the time and my conclusion was to be that, no matter how bad things look, somebody would inevitably make things interesting for us. Parallel epic collapses by the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves (whose franchise, incidentally, originated in Boston) plus resiliency on the part of the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have created as exciting a final day of the season that we could have ever possibly hoped for.

As I type this, the Wild Card races in both leagues look like this:

AL Wild Card
Red Sox 90-71
Tampa Bay 90-71

NL Wild Card
Braves 89-72
Cardinals 89-72

All four teams play tonight in four separate games and if the results don't yield a clear winner in both instances, we would see an extra one-game playoff tomorrow to decide the winner. Needless to say, it doesn't get any better than this.

For me, the NL race features two teams I don't like at all. The Braves are mortal enemies of the Mets but that doesn't bother as much as the stupidity of their manager, Fredi Gonzalez. One could write a lengthy piece detailing his numerous managerial transgressions throughout the year but it's enough to mention that he blatantly fails to put his best team on the field often and perpetuates the most idiotic bullpen strategies this side of... Tony LaRussa, the Cardinals manager. The Cardinals are no friends to the Mets either but, again, it's the manager that ticks me off the most. Since the Braves are a beaten down, limping team right now I'll prefer to see the Cardinals surpass them so at least they can be a viable contender in the playoffs.

As for the American League, I was sucked into rooting for the Red Sox during their incredible run in 2004 and had been rooting for them in all of their gargantuan battles with the Yankees over the years. That they employ Bill James and generally follow an intelligent, sabermetric approach to building their team has always appealed to me. Ever since reading Moneyball way back in 2003 (if I ever get to see the movie, I'll certainly share my thoughts on it here) I've had a strong fascination with the A's and other teams that employ statistical measures to team-building and the Red Sox certainly brought all that stuff to its highest peaks with their two championships in four years. But lately they've too closely resembled the Yankees and their distasteful tactic of throwing bags of cash at the best players on the open market.


On the other hand, the Rays, with their minuscule budget, have become a Moneyball East type of operation. Except their task is much more daunting having to play in a division with two deep-pocketed powerhouses and even the perpetually competitive Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays have a number of exciting young players (I'm starting to realize Evan Longoria might be my favorite player in the league) and even an eclectic manager.

I would love to see the Rays win, in fact, I'd love to see them win and then carry on to a World Series victory (perhaps a rematch of the 2008 Fall Classic against the Phillies?) but the scenario I most prefer to see would be both the Rays and Red Sox winning today and then playing an epic one-game playoff on Thursday. Same with the Cards and Braves. To nobody's surprise, all four teams have their best pitcher on the mound for today's game. I'll be watching intently and hoping the season drags the excitement out for as long as possible.

The Beltran Era

His final game in a Mets uniform was a typical Carlos Beltran performance. Two walks, a single, an RBI, and 3 runs scored. He went out in perfect Beltran fashion with a strong all-around game that a pessimistic eye would be blind to. That's how he always went about his business throughout his seven year Mets career and, sadly, during that time many Mets fans adopted the unfairly critical perspective of their Bronx neighbors. "They act like they own you," he would later comment.

After the Mets signed Beltran to a monstrous 7-year $119 million contract (the largest in Mets history) before the 2005 season, the fans had every reason to expect big things from him but the normally shy and reserved centerfielder seemed to wilt underneath the massive New York City sports spotlight. He had a poor year by his own standards, hitting just .266/.330/.414 with 17 homeruns for a Mets team that underachieved and finished in third place. The fans weren't happy.

Everything would change in the next season as the Mets loaded up in preparation for a run at a title. They brought in Beltran's friend and fellow countryman Carlos Delgado and this certainly seemed to benefit Beltran as he went on to have arguably the greatest offensive season in Mets history. He hit .275/.388/.594 with 95 walks and a team-record 41 homeruns as the Mets went all the way to the National League championship.

It was during that season that I attended more Mets games at Shea Stadium than ever before, I saw probably 15 or 16 regular season games and even went to Game 2 of the NLCS against the Cardinals (wrote about it here). I fondly remember Beltran running down any fly ball that was hit in his vicinity with a long-striding graceful gait that was nevertheless an image of peak athletic performance. During one game against the Angels I saw him not only chase down a ball that was smashed but he even reached up above the tall Shea Stadium fence and stole a homerun. It was one of the best catches I'd ever witnessed in person.

A seemingly perfect player, he became my favorite on the team because of his all-around talent and consistency. David Wright was terrific but he was prone to frustrating lapses in the field, Jose Reyes was as exciting as anybody in the sport but could have some terrible at-bats in those days. Beltran, on the other hand, was the kind of player you'd create in a video game---he had speed, big-time power, a good batting eye, hit the ball all over the field from both sides of the plate, and played a superb center field.

In the '06 NLCS against the Cardinals, Beltran and Delgado carried the team (Beltran scored 8 runs and hit 3 homers) and they battled all the way to a deciding Game 7 at Shea. That was an unforgettable night for me as I know it was for all Mets fans. I'll always remember where I was. I watched the beginning of the game in my kitchen and saw Endy Chavez's legendary catch right as I stepped out the door to join my brother's future wife and her friend for a few drinks at a bar in Brooklyn. The bar was absolutely packed and I hated it, you couldn't walk anywhere without squeezing in between a crowd of inconsiderate people. The game was on TV but not enough people seemed to care. The teams were locked in a 1-1 tie and as it reached the 9th inning, everybody suddenly started paying attention. For a reason I can't fathom now in retrospect, the Mets didn't put their best reliever in the game but went instead with Aaron Heilman who promptly allowed a two-run homerun to the Cards' worst hitter, Yadier Molina.

The Mets went into their final at-bat needing two runs to keep their season alive. They would face rookie pitcher Adam Wainwright. The first two hitters got on base and I can remember that incredible feeling of hope, a particular brand of which seems to be unique to baseball. The tying runs were on base, the opportunity to tie the game existed. But Wainwright was composed amidst the chaotic Shea Stadium scene and retired the next two hitters. My least favorite Met player Paul LoDuca worked a walk and the bases were loaded for the team's best hitter, Carlos Beltran, with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Wainwright threw two fastballs and got two quick strikes on Beltran. The next pitch would live in infamy. Wainwright twirled an absolutely perfect, knee-buckling curveball that started around the height of Beltran's head and promptly dropped down to knee-level for a called strike three. Beltran was fooled by it, couldn't muster a swing, and the game was over. The Cardinals went to the World Series and eventually won the title, defeating the Detroit Tigers. Beltran, for all his subsequent accomplishments, was never forgiven by most Mets fans for not swinging the bat. My dad still brings it up. As I watched it in the bar, I didn't scream or stomp my feet in anger I simply exhaled "fuck..." and felt the same helpless feeling that Beltran must have had. It was an impossible pitch to hit. Wainwright had won the battle fair and square and there was nothing the Mets could do about it.

It should be noted that, despite that memory of Beltran being fooled by a perfect curveball being burned into everyone's minds, that's not why they lost. They were already trailing by 2 and down to their final out, none of that was Beltran's fault. He'd even scored the team's only run in that game. I blamed all the Mets' failures on inept manager Willie Randolph in those days and while the arguments I used to make have faded from my memory over the years, I still think it's safe to say that Randolph's poorly informed decisions are to blame for the Mets not going all the way. 

Beltran didn't let the memory of his strikeout get to him as he went on to post another two huge seasons for the Mets, but in both of those years (2007, 2008) the team collapsed down the stretch and never got back to the playoffs again. Again, Beltran was not the one to blame. In both of those seasons, he put up huge numbers in the final month while the rest of the team faltered. He especially turned it on in the closing month of 2008, hitting .344/.440/.645 in September as the Mets desperately tried to save their season in the final days of Shea Stadium's existence.

These past few years he battled knee problems, had surgery, and missed a lot of games but still hit well in the games he did play. This year he was putting up big numbers again (leading the league in extra-base hits) while playing in right field to give his knees a break, but with his contract expiring he became expendable. He was traded to San Francisco on Wednesday.

I'm sorry to see him go but it's comforting that he's going to a great baseball city where he'll be appreciated for what he brings to the table. He also gets a chance at defending a World Series title so I'll probably be rooting for the Giants the rest of the year with him in the mix. As I learned in my last trip to San Francisco, the love those people show for their team, even through hard times, is enough to make me want to root for them (despite my distaste for their general manager, Brian Sabean).

Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus wrote a nice piece the other day looking at Beltran's performance as a Met, showing that he was actually among the top 5 most productive outfielders in baseball during that time. Nevertheless, he remains under-appreciated by most Mets fans and some still hold the 2006 strikeout against him as his defining moment, conveniently ignoring that Beltran leaves the Mets with numbers that compare favorably to Mike Piazza's output during his time in Queens. Looking at the list of top Mets career performances, Beltran ranks in the franchise's top 10 for on-base percentage, slugging, runs scored, doubles, homeruns, RBI, walks, OPS+, and anything else important.

The guy simply had a great career as a New York Met. I will always remember him for his whip-like swing and the homeruns he crushed (so many of them at crucial moments), the fly balls he ran down, and the way he made it all look so easy. It's a shame that he missed so much time during the two seasons prior, but I see it as representative of the Mets overall organizational decrepitude of that time. His rejuvenation this year coincided with a rejuvenation of the Mets franchise under new management and I'm glad we got to see him go out at the peak of his powers and I wish him all the best in San Francisco.

The Wave that Washed Your Meals Away

The excitement of the 2011 major league baseball season suddenly burst into supernova recently. It all began late Tuesday night in Atlanta.

After the 3rd inning, the Pirates and Braves were locked in a 3-3 tie. Nobody managed to put across another run for the next 16 innings. They nearly played the equivalent of two full baseball games without scoring a run. I tuned into the MLB.tv feed around the 13th inning and the matchup just seemed far too boring so I skipped to a different game. Once I saw that they were headed to the 16th, I realized this could be something special. The kind of game where managers actually have to start putting their thinking caps on (both skippers confused their thinking caps with dunce caps, though, as evidenced by their long line of stupid maneuvers).

The game got to the bottom of the 19th inning when things finally got interesting. The Braves put two runners aboard with one out. Julio Lugo, who I had only recently realized was still in the majors, stood at third base. The Braves had run out of position players so they let Scott Proctor, a crappy pitcher and an even worse hitter, step to the plate. He managed to make pretty solid contact but he hit a ground ball directly at the third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Lugo took off from third towards home plate and while Alvarez hurled a perfect throw to the catcher I remember thinking that this is one of the things I love to see in baseball, a tense moment with the game on the line and a fielder executing a perfect throw to home plate to keep the game alive.

The throw home was perfect, alright. Pirates catcher Michael McHenry, a minor league scrub acquired from the Red Sox organization after a slew of Pittsburgh catchers started falling apart in succession, received the throw from Alvarez and met the oncoming Lugo a few feet in front of home plate. Lugo was out by a mile and he knew it. He didn't even try to bowl the catcher over or knock the ball out of his glove, he simply executed a feeble slide with a look on his face like he didn't want the catcher to be too rough with him. Perhaps McHenry sensed Lugo's hapnophobia because instead of firmly smacking him with the glove, he waved his arm in the vicinity of Lugo's leg.

Lugo stood up from his slide with his body slumped into disappointment when suddenly the umpire gave the signal "SAFE!" and Lugo quickly touched homeplate. The game was over. And "the umpire" was about to lose his relative anonymity. The world of baseball-watchers exploded in anger. I've never enjoyed following the stream of Twitter messages as much as I did that Tuesday night (after 1 AM, mind you). Everybody had been tuning into the game because of how unusually long it was lasting, it seemed like there was a shot at history being made. Well, it was historic alright. Many people called it the worst call they'd ever seen in a baseball game.

In retrospect, the umpire Jerry Meals apologized and admitted he messed up while some have argued that he may have actually made the correct call. Major League Baseball actually issued a statement saying that Meals screwed it up, but they can't take it back. They won't be bringing the two teams back together to re-do everything. It's in the books. Worst of all for the Pirates, who are contending for the first time in some 19 years, this could be the difference between them going to the postseason or not.

*   *   *

All of that stuff was going on around 2 AM eastern time and so the next day figured to be filled with all kinds of reactions once everyone got to gather their thoughts on the incident. Well, a huge wave of Wednesday baseball action suddenly splashed, overtaking and washing away all the Jerry Meals news that had begun to pile up.

With the trade deadline looming, the newswire had begun to buzz with big news: the St. Louis Cardinals were going to trade their young stud centerfielder, Colby Rasmus. The 24-year-old Rasmus, although a world class talent, had been squabbling with the team's manager last year and it spilled over into this season with Rasmus having a bad year to show for it. It certainly didn't help Rasmus' standing with the Cardinals that his father had the attitude of a big-mouthed little league dad constantly interfering with the team's handling of his son. Better yet, it was the Toronto Blue Jays' shrewd young general manager who was swooping in to grab Rasmus and bring him up to the nest in Toronto along with a bunch of other rejected fledglings.

Before that trade was completed, the news wire blew up again: the New York Mets had reached a deal to send Carlos Beltran, the most coveted trade bait in baseball, to the San Francisco Giants. The rumors about Beltran had been swirling around for a few weeks but suddenly the wind jutted violently like a cold day in the Bay Area and Beltran was gone. But the Mets managed to scoop up the Giants' best pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, in return. (Personally, I'm sad to see Beltran go but glad he's headed to a contender defending their championship. I'll have more to say on Beltran and the Mets soon.)

While baseball peeps were still assimilating these two huge events, an afternoon baseball game in Cleveland between the Angels and Indians suddenly demanded everyone's attention. Angels righthander Ervin Santana was pitching a no-hitter. Once everybody (including me, via my iPhone) managed to tune in, Santana cruised through the last two innings and history was made. Suddenly, nobody gave a crap about Jerry Meals. 

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 2: NL Central

My predictions for each team continue...
 
(See Part 1 for a description of the format.)


NL Central
Always a tight division, the Cincinnati Reds finally capitalized on all their potential and outlasted the Cardinals last year. Now, the Brewers have retooled and suddenly look like the favorites especially with the Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright and everybody loves the Cubbies. Here's how I see it all playing out.

1. Brewers
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Even

Ever since I visited Milwaukee in the summer of 2008 and had the chance to observe the city and its baseball team, I've had a personal affection for them. Later on in that '08 season the team acquired corpulent ace C.C. Sabathia who led them into the playoffs but, Sabathia would leave for the Yankees after that season and the Brewers have been a major disappointment ever since. Their failures can be blamed entirely on an inability to pitch or, rather, an inability to put adequate pitchers on the mound (aside from ace Yovani Gallardo).

This past offseason the team traded for Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum and now, suddenly, their rotation looks terrific. The way I see it, Gallardo is still the ace. One of my favorite players in the league, Gallardo has continually been underrated by the general baseball community but the guy simply dominates as evidenced by his top-10 finish in strikeouts the last two seasons. And he's only now coming into his age-25 season. I expect him to be terrific again.

Say it with me now: "Yo-vah-nee Guy-yar-do"

With Greinke and Marcum behind the great Yovani, this is a totally different team. The offensive firepower has always been there and this year they've got at least 5 players capable of bashing 25 homers. Prince Fielder is in the final year of his contract so he'll probably be extra motivated after finishing with "only" 32 homeruns last year and a sub-.500 slugging percentage.

The bullpen appears to be their only weakness as John Axford cannot be relied upon to close all season. He performed admirably last year in 50 appearances but throughout his career he's been prone to give up way too many walks. The addition of Takashi Saito helps and 23-year-old lefty Zach Braddock looks legitimately great but otherwise this isn't a great bullpen. It shouldn't matter nearly as much if their combination of high-powered offense and deep starting pitching creates big enough leads for the relievers to work with.

They're a trendy pick this year and I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. I don't think they'll win 90 games but a playoff appearance and possible championship run seems to be a realistic possibility.

2. Reds
PECOTA: 82-80
My take: Over 

Usually, I find it hard to have confidence in any team managed by bumbling Dusty Baker but this a very talented group. For one thing, they've got last year's MVP in the middle of the lineup, Joey Votto, who might be the second-best hitter on the planet behind Albert Pujols. Votto turns just 27 years old this year and should continue to mash although I'd be shocked if he comes close to last season's .357 True Average. The other player to be excited about on this team is another "V" surname, Edinson Volquez. The young right-hander came back from a year off recovering from surgery to post career-high strikeout and ground-ball numbers last season and as he continues to recover from the surgery, he can be reasonably expected to further improve this year. He reminds me of Pedro Martinez on the mound and I'm excited to see what he'll do this year.

Along with Volquez they've got a wealth of young arms in the rotation plus veteran Bronson Arroyo who continues to get by with a funky arsenal of slop. The bullpen has been a strength of theirs for a couple years now and this year they'll have the Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman coming out of the pen. Chapman came up during the summer last year and was throwing harder than any human being in recorded history, frequently touching 103-mph. He should be ready to step in and usurp the closer job from Francisco Cordero at some point this year though Baker the decision maker has been known for disregarding logic. A perfect example of this is the very presence of Chapman in the pen where he'll pitch probably 70 innings max, instead of in the rotation where he could pitch at least twice as much.

The lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom (although, again, Baker is known for batting slappy out-machines in the leadoff spot) with young outfielders Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs providing plenty of pop behind Votto. They've also got one of the best overall defenses in baseball. Look for them to be in the heart of the battle for the division crown but I don't think they'll reach the heights of last year's 91 wins.

3. Cardinals
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Under

To me, this team has underachieved for a while now. They've got by far the best player in baseball and two of the best pitchers yet they didn't reach 90 wins last year and, though they won the World Series back in 2006 (thanks to the Mets faltering in the NLCS) they haven't won more than 91 games these last five years. I place some of the blame on Tony LaRussa who insists on forcing his convoluted strategies into every game to such an extent that he gets in the way of his team's performance.

At any rate, the lineup this year is the usual stars-and-scrubs variety with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the heart of the order surrounded by mediocre hitters. Centerfielder Colby Rasmus looks like the real deal but LaRussa clashed with him last year so much so that Rasmus supposedly wanted to be traded. If he gets the playing time he deserves, Rasmus might blossom into a star but it seems like he has to do it on Tony LaRussa's terms.

Their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright is out for the season and suddenly the starting rotation doesn't look so great. Chris Carpenter is a great pitcher, although he displayed his disturbing douchebaggery to the whole world last season, and sophomore lefty Jaime Garcia is a good bet to post another solid season but behind the two of them there's not much to be excited about. The bullpen has some nice throwers along with a few of the whackiest beards in baseball and it's a given that LaRussa will employ every single reliever on the roster.

But there's seems to be a lot of outside drama hovering over this team. LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan are getting up there in age and LaRussa especially seems to be growing grumpier. Pujols is signed through the end of this year but after that he's a free agent and so there's the lingering possibility of his imminent departure on everyone's mind. With all of the drama and LaRussa's continued descent into senility, this team will finish around .500 at best. It's sad really, because Pujols deserves better.

4. Cubs
PECOTA: 80-82
My take: Even

Everybody's favorite sleeper team this year. A couple weeks ago I was listening to Jonah Keri's podcast when he had Rob Neyer on as a guest. Neyer was asked for a sleeper pick this year and he was given about 5 minutes to ponder it. While listening, I considered each of the divisions in my mind and realized by a process of elimination that he'd say the Cubs. In my head I was saying "Cubs...Cubs...Cubs" and Neyer finally responded saying "I think the Cubs will surprise people." Jay Jaffe just wrote a piece at Baseball Prospectus analyzing his own intuitive choice of the Cubbies as a sleeper, coming away a bit disappointed after researching their roster this year.

They will definitely be better than last year's 75-87 performance that had them finish a game behind the lowly Astros. The strength of the team is an all-around solid starting rotation that doesn't really have an ace but Ryan Dempster, Crazy Carlos Zambrano, and Matt Garza are all pretty damn good. Randy Wells is a perfect #4 starter, and I mean that as a compliment. Andrew Cashner, a big 24-year-old right-hander will be the 5th starter and, if he can harness his control, he could be something special as he's got great stuff.

Everyone, including me, is excited about young shortstop Starlin Castro and he's a nice player (with a great name) but at age 21 he's still learning how to hit in the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if opposing pitchers have figured him out and he struggles this year. Then again, it also wouldn't be a big shock if he bursts forth with a .330/.380/.440 type season and keeps the Cubs playing exciting, contending baseball all year. He'll be batting in the leadoff spot so what he does will certainly go a long way towards determining the team's offensive output.

Bringing in Carlos Pena to play first after he produced a sub-.200 stinker last year was actually a good move. The 2009 homerun leader should benefit both from playing in dinger-friendly Wrigley Field and getting out of baseball's toughest division, the AL East. If Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy and if Marlon Byrd shows a little more power, this has the makings of a nice lineup but those are pretty big IFs. Byrd and Ramirez are both on the wrong side of 30, they'll be 33 this year just like the team's mildly productive left fielder Alfonso Soriano.

The team's best hitter is probably catcher Geovany Soto but they usually keep him down in the bottom of the batting order for some ridiculous reason. I guess it's because he's a catcher? I don't know. I'm stumped. New manager Mike Quade might be a distant relative of mine (years ago my grandfather briefly changed his name from Quadrino to Quade to bypass prejudice against Italians) and the team played well for him last year but keeping poor OBP hitters like Castro and Byrd at the top of the lineup is not a good way to get the most out of this offense. And, aside from closer Carlos Marmol who is a specimen unlike any in baseball history (his frisbee slider is practically uncontrollable leading to lots of walks but historically awesome strikeout rates) the group of relievers Quade has at his disposal looks a bit shaky.

I think they'll be a more exciting team to watch this year but the end result will be a bit short of .500.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 71-91
My take: Under

They've finished at the bottom of the division five out of the last six seasons and last year was one of their worst years ever. Rock bottom has been struck. Things should really start to change this year as they've established a pretty solid core of young hitters. Andrew McCutchen (24), Pedro Alvarez (24), Jose Tabata (22), and Neil Walker (25) can all hit. Alvarez especially is someone to be excited about as the 2008 #2 overall draft pick displayed some serious power last year with 16 homeruns and 21 doubles in barely half a season. He's a good bet to knock 30 or maybe even 40 homeruns this year.

The huge problem with this team is its rotation. They've got nobody. Well, James McDonald has some potential but besides him, they've got nobody. The organization has two young prospects in Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie who are studs and could be great major league pitchers some day but that's at least a couple years from now. This current pitching staff will undoubtedly struggle.

New manager Clint Hurdle should be able to rile this group up though and I think they'll be much improved from last year's 105-loss stinker. But the ceiling for this group looks to be about 70 wins.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 68-94
My take: waaaaay Under

Along with the Mariners and Royals, this is the worst team in baseball. A college team could outscore this lineup. Their best hitter is Hunter Pence and he neither gets on base enough (.325 OBP last year) nor hits with enough power (.461 slugging) to even be a league-average hitter for his position. Carlos Lee, the team's highest-paid player, absolutely fell off a cliff last season batting .246/.291/.417 and making almost $20 million for it. Formerly known as "El Caballo" (Spanish for "The Horse") the 34-year-old tubby outfielder better fits a description made famous by one of Salvador Dali's essays: "The Rotten Donkey."


The pitching rotation does carry some major-league caliber players and might win them a few games this year. Wandy Rodriguez is a tough little lefty (listed at 5'11" though probably more like 5'9") and Brett Myers, while a terrible person, isn't a terrible pitcher. Bud Norris can rack up some strikeouts (9.3 per 9 innings last year) but he walks too many batters and is prone to giving up homeruns. J.A. Happ is hapless, Nelson Figueroa needs to figure out how to pitch. I'm just being silly now. This team literally boggles the mind. It amazes me that an organization would trot out a group like this and expect customers to pay large amounts of money to see them play baseball. I'd be surprised if the team reaches 60 wins this year.

Tuesday's Full Moon Augurs Another No-Hitter

Since we've had three straight no-hitters that have all occurred on the night of the full moon (and because no-hit bids are happening often enough) I am predicting that we will see a no-hitter on Tuesday night August 24th which is a full moon. But who will throw it? I've identified some potential candidates out of the moundsmen who are scheduled to pitch that night. We can look at the batting average (since we're talking about a no-hitter, not necessarily a perfect game) of the opposing team and the batting average allowed and overall dominance of the starting pitcher. Keep in mind he'd also have to be a guy who can go the full 9 innings without getting pulled for running up a high pitch count (although that didn't stop Edwin Jackson two full moons ago when he threw 149 pitches).

We've actually got a few strong candidates pitching that night.

Most likely:
Adam Wainwright vs the Pittsburgh Pirates

By far the strongest candidate to throw a no-no on Tuesday, Wainwright is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league right now. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, ranks behind only Roy Halladay with his 5 complete games, and has the 4th most strikeouts in the league. He is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the second-worst batting average in all of baseball.

Other candidates:

Cole Hamels vs Houston Astros

Hamels had a game against St. Louis last month in which he allowed only 2 hits in 8 innings and before his most recent start (a clunker against the Giants) he had a string of 3 consecutive dominant games, striking out nearly ten per game during that span and pitching into the late innings each time. The Astros as a team are batting .246 on the year (ahead of only Pittsburgh in the NL) even though they've actually played a bit better of late. If it's not a no-hitter, it should still be a pretty dominant game for Cole Hamels.

R.A. Dickey vs Marlins, Josh Johnson vs Mets
The knuckleballing sensation known as R.A. Dickey nearly threw the first no-hitter in Mets history last week, giving up only 1 hit (to the pitcher Cole Hamels) while throwing a complete game. The Marlins rank in the bottom third in the majors with a .255 batting average and have been no-hit already this year but they've got plenty of threats in their lineup, particularly Hanley Ramirez. While Ramirez is having a subpar season by his own standards (117 OPS+ after three seasons above 140) he's still an excellent hitter and, as the leadoff man, will be granted at least 3 chances to hit Dickey's knuckler.

Opposing Dickey and the Mets will be the towering (6 foot 7) ace for the Marlins, Josh Johnson. For most of the year Johnson has been nearly untouchable but he's slowed down recently and was even knocked out of a game in the 4th inning by the Reds. The Mets are pretty bad in the batting average department (.248) and in Johnson's 12 innings against them so far this year they've batted just .182 against him. They've been pretty pathetic at the plate lately, culminating in a weak showing in Pittsburgh. They were held to 1 run on 5 hits earlier today against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Should be an interesting pitcher's duel in Queens.


Gio Gonzalez vs Cleveland Indians
He's prone to wildness so he might rack up a high pitch count but he still has the potential to dominate, especially against a flimsy Cleveland lineup (they were the victims in the famous Armando Galarraga perfect game incident). Opposing hitters are batting just .227 against Gonzalez this year.


Not likely but certainly possible:


Josh Beckett vs Seattle Mariners
Beckett hasn't had a good year at all so far. While his strikeout and walk numbers are fine (8 Ks and 2 walks per 9 IP), he's been shelled for an OPS against of .856. But on this night he'll be facing the absolute worst lineup in major league baseball. The Mariners are hitting a pathetic .238 as a team.

Gavin Floyd vs Baltimore Orioles
I see Floyd as the wild card of the group. He's been hit hard in his past two starts and these Baltimore Orioles he'll be facing are playing much better than the lowly O's I saw earlier this year at Petco. Floyd has occasionally put it all together and pitched some dominant games this year including a game at Wrigley in which he had a no-hitter going with two outs in the seventh inning. I don't think he'll get one against Showalter's boys but he belongs on this list as someone who might do it.

One-In-A-Million Shot Bonus:

Ervin Santana vs Tampa Bay Rays
Nothing against Santana, but this is just kind of a joke because the Rays have already been no-hit twice this year and once last year. In all seriousness though, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the Tampa Bay Rays, who might be the best team in major league baseball (or, at worst, the second-best behind the Yankees), will go hitless in a game for the third time this season. Santana has three complete games already this year and has been pretty stingy in his two most recent starts, giving up 4 hits or less in both games. It would be a memorable and historic event if the Rays were the victims of a no-hitter again but perhaps not as strange as having four consecutive no-hitters occur on the night of a full moon.

MLB 2010 Midseason Thoughts: National League

Standings as of Saturday morning July 10th, 2010.


NL West
San Diego  --
Colorado  2
Los Angeles 2
San Francisco  5
Arizona  17.5

I like the Padres, I go to many of their games (eight this year so far, two in the past two weeks), and I've written about them a bunch of times here already. I'm very happy to see them in first place but as I've mentioned before, the Rockies and Dodgers have really started to play better after slow starts and they've been biting at the Pads' heels for weeks. The question is: are the Padres truly good enough to win this division? With their extremely pitcher-friendly home ballpark, there's been some confusion about the overall quality of this Padre team. Their pitching has been great, but some silly people discredit that as a park illusion (even though their ERA in away games is the best in the majors) and, big ballpark or not, nobody believes in their offense. The park-adjusted statistics (TrueAverage and OPS+) do show that they've got a pretty weak offensive attack with Adrian Gonzalez (.324 TAv) and Nick Hundley (.271 TAv) being the only above-average hitting regulars. Away from the wide expanses of Petco Park, the team hasn't hit very well at all but with their undeniably awesome pitching they've managed to amass the best road record in the National League.

And the offense has actually performed pretty well at home while the pitching has been great:

4.41 runs scored per game at home
3.17 runs allowed per game at home

They are a team of stellar pitching (led by burgeoning rookie Mat Latos in the rotation and a historically great bullpen) and a just-good-enough offense. It's basically Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys who "get the job done." Early in the season it looked like Chase Headley was going to finally bust out as a high-caliber player but he's really slowed down and currently sits at a pretty weak .259 TAv. Thankfully, Nick Hundley has emerged as a good hitter and, despite limited playing time so far, I'm liking what I see from outfielder Aaron Cunningham.

I had great seats for a Padres-Rockies game last week and saw a nice duel between Pads' lefty Wade LeBlanc and Rox righty Jason Hammel. Aside from an extremely impressive homerun launched over the fence in the deepest part of the yard by redhot youngster Carlos Gonzalez, LeBlanc didn't allow much and pitched a great game but it was blown open by the long-ball serving ways of San Diego reliever Edward Mujica. Colorado looked strong and they took 2 out of 3 in that series without their best player (Troy Tulowitzki). The two teams had a great battle in Colorado last night and they're in a close game right now as I type this. Look for a very entertaining race to the finish line between these two teams over the next three months. Obviously I'll be rooting for the Padres.

While I picked the Dodgers to win the division in my preseason picks, their erratic play has me questioning whether they'll even stay in the mix much longer.

NL Central
Cincinnati  --
St. Louis    2
Chicago   10.5
Milwaukee  10.5
Houston   13.5
Pittsburgh   18

Oh boy was I ever wrong about the Brewers. I feel bad for the Milwaukee fans devoting their time, energy, attention, and emotion to this team. On the other hand, the success of the team on the Ohio River in Cincinnati is undoubtedly for real. Their lineup is very deep, especially with Scott Rolen recapturing his glory days (.306 TAv). Joey Votto (.337 TAv, 22 HRs) is having a huge year, Brandon Phillips is having his typical good year, and I think you can expect Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce to continue to get better as the season goes on. They've got talented young pitchers up the wazoo (rookie Travis Wood almost threw a perfect game in Philadelphia today) and I don't think even the clumsy ineptitude of toothpick-chewing Dusty Baker can sink this cruising ship.

On the other hand, did anybody see the ending of that Rockies-Cardinals game the other night? The Rox pulled a miracle comeback, scoring 9 runs in the 9th inning while down by 6 but what in the hell was Tony La Russa thinking playing his outfielders so deep? Yet another example of TLR overmanaging to the detriment of the team. Check out the highlights, it was a 9-7 game with 2 outs and a runner on third, Carlos Gonzalez batting. That run at third was meaningless, the pitcher had to simply get Gonzalez out to win the game. Gonzalez stroked a line drive to right field that would've normally been hit directly at the right fielder but Randy Winn was playing as far back as the warning track. I believe this is called "no doubles" defense but who cares about a double in that situation? It looked like the outfielders were positioned there to be ready to retrieve a homerun from over the fence...which is just insane! La Russa was also largely blamed for (twice in one game) losing that extremely long game to the Mets earlier this season. The Cards are supposed to be the favorites to win this division, their rotation is superb (2nd best ERA behind the Padres), and the lineup is solid but I wouldn't be surprised to see La Russa screw up a few more tight games and lose this division by one or two games in the end.

And I'm amazed the Pirates have played bad enough to fall below the Astros. The Astros are pathetic.

NL East
Atlanta   --
New York  4
Philadelphia  5.5
Florida   10
Washington   12.5

Tim Hudson has been the surprise ace (2.44 ERA) of a strong Atlanta pitching staff and the depth of offensive production they've had is staggering. They have an unbelievable ten (!) hitters with a True Average of at least .270. Nine guys have at least a .280 TAv. Five (!) hitters have at least a .290. I think it's clear that they've got a strong hold on the #1 spot atop this division but don't count the Mets and Phillies out. The 2nd place team here will probably take the Wild Card.

I've been pleasantly surprised with this Mets team all season long. As good as that Braves offense is, the Mets are still right next to them in overall True Average. David Wright has regained his status as the Metsiah. His True Average of .326 leads all major league third basemen, a serious feat considering the next closest is Evan Longoria at .313. Wright also leads all 3B in VORP and is 7th in all of baseball by that stat. Angel Pagan has turned into a nifty player, Jose Reyes is getting his mojo back, Jason Bay hasn't hit homers but is still producing (.293 TAv), and although he's slowed down as of late I still trust in what Ike Davis can do. Don't forget about Carlos Beltran! I worried about the rotation coming into this season but Mike Pelfrey has established himself as a force to be reckoned with after adding a splitter to his arsenal while Johan Santana is showing signs of coming out of his weird slump (which was apparently due to tipping off his vaunted changeup), Jonathon Niese is becoming established as a consistent starter (.541 SNWP or Support-Neutral Winning Percentage), and R.A. Dickey has successfully been a big hairy knuckleballer...what's more fun than that?

The Mets bullpen is what worries me. Are Elmer Dessens and Fernando Nieve reliable? Maybe for now, but I'd be pulling my hair out if they were protecting leads late in the season in a pennant race. Although Rob Neyer sees no discernible difference in his peripheral numbers, K-Rod is worrisome. It'd be fun if the Mets could fight their way to the top and knock off the Braves or beat out the Phillies for the Wild Card but it's easy to foresee some big late game collapses by that Met bullpen.

NL MVP thus far: Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
The San Diego star has had yet another huge season batting in the middle of a lineup without any other major threat (see above) and playing half his games in the worst hitter's park in the majors. Taking a look at his park-adjusted numbers at Baseball Prospectus' site (scroll to the Davenport Translations), Adrian would have 38 homeruns right now if he were in a normal park. The major league leader has just 24. Look at his road numbers for crying out loud: .353/.410/.660 AVG/OBP/SLG. 

NL Cy Young thus far: Josh Johnson, Marlins

There are a few guys in the National League having great pitching seasons. The most talked about is probably Ubaldo Jimenez, but Roy Halladay is having another great year, so is Adam Wainwright and even Mat Latos. Josh Johnson has been better than all of them. His 1.70 ERA is the best in baseball (so is his 1.84 Runs Allowed), he has the most Quality Starts, the best opponents OPS, and he's a hundreth of a point behind Cliff Lee for best WHIP all while throwing more innings than all but five pitchers in the NL. Looking at more advanced stats, he currently leads all major league pitchers in Wins Above Replacement, Support-Neutral Win Percentage, and ERA+. His stature in that last mark is just insane, at 246 it means he's prevented runs at a rate 146-percent better than the league at this point (that number also adjusts for any advantage he may get from his home ballpark). The last pitcher to be in that territory was vintage Pedro. Keep watching!

The Lunar Eclipse and the Large Moon

Something rare and extremely cool is happening tonight/early tomorrow morning: a partial lunar eclipse. For about three hours, beginning around 3:15 AM Pacific Time, the earth's shadow will cover part of the Full Moon. A sunset-colored shadow will overtake approximately 54% of the moon during one point. It should certainly be an amazing sight.

But what makes it all the more amazing is that the moon will appear abnormally large to observers. As this excellent piece explains, the reasons for it aren't understood by scientists, but when the moon is close to the horizon it appears much larger than it actually is. It's completely an illusion, a weird natural trick of the mind, because what we're seeing is exactly the same size glowing disc that we usually see in the sky.

The first time I witnessed and heard about this effect was an evening in October of 2006, sitting in the second to last row of Shea Stadium with my brother John. We were behind (or, rather, far above) home plate watching Game Two of the NLCS between the Mets and the Cardinals.* So Taguchi had smacked a home run to win the game for the Cardinals, the game was over, Mets fans had departed through the cold autumn air. John and I sat there at the very top of Shea Stadium letting the masses below us clear out. Directly behind us, through the chainlink fence that held top row observers from jumping out of the stadium, we could see the glittering New York City skyline. In front of us, past the left field fence and above the Whitestone Bridge we saw a huge yellow moon, partially shadowed (it was a waxing moon, no lunar eclipse) and tilted. John explained to me the phenomenon and its mystery and we chatted for another fifteen minutes or so about the earth's angle being visible in the slanted moon, Stephen King's post-apocalyptic novel The Stand, and the Mets. Then we went home.

*You can read one of my earliest, albeit sloppy, pieces entitled "Say it Ain't So...Taguchi" --- a guest column I wrote for Jay Jaffe's Futility Infielder blog about that Mets-Cardinals game back in 2006.

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 2: NL Central

Continuing our look at each division and how things will stack up...


NL Central
Baseball's only six-team division is also perhaps its weakest. Many consider the Cardinals the easiest bet in baseball to the win their division and I do think they'll come out on top but the Brewers have improved their horrid run prevention from last season and should be a worthy foe.

1. Cardinals
PECOTA: 87-75
My take: Over
Their frontline talent is as good as any team in the game. Baseball Zeus aka Albert Pujols is a lock to be one of the best hitters in baseball, Matt Holliday is a worthy complement, and the Carpenter/Wainwright pitching duo is superb. But have they assembled a good enough team around those guys? I really like Colby Rasmus and believe he will become a major contributor this year both at the plate and in the field. There's also Ryan Ludwick (22 HRs last year) and Yadier Molina who has developed into a pretty damn good hitter. It'll be fun to see if pitching coach Dave Duncan's voodoo on older pitchers can work for Brad Penny and, if it does (and Carpenter/Wainwright can stay healthy--not a given), I think it will all be enough to win a pretty weak division. The Brewers ought to be biting at their heels and I fear Cards' closer Ryan Franklin might turn into a pumpkin this year but Tony LaRussa will figure out how to get this team across the finish line ahead. 89 wins sounds about right.


2. Brewers
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over
Having Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez out there on defense will make a major difference for a team whose pitching staff was terrible last year. I also like the addition of Randy Wolf who should provide a stable presence in a rotation that would otherwise rely on one pitcher. That one pitcher, Yovani Gallardo is an immense talent, though. With the new defense and the wisdom of Wolf (plus Doug Davis who slots in as a worthy #3 starter), this looks like a totally different team as far as run prevention and, with their lineup of mashers, they have a shot to lead the NL in run scored. It's a nice mix and I'll be rooting for them to topple the Cards but it will be a very close race.

3. Cubs
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Over
This is a .500 team. I'm saying Over on PECOTA's forecast but not by much. They've got a nice pitching staff but the offense has already reached its heights. They're lineup is relying on older players who can't be counted on to match their past performances...and that's IF they can even stay healthy enough to play! But, I'm sympathetic towards the Cubbies. I don't know why, maybe it's their cute ballpark, but I like to see them do well. With optimism, one can envision their offensive core which carried them to two straight division titles (leading the NL in runs in '08) giving it's one last gush of life this year to support a deep rotation but, even if that does happen, I see them falling short of the Cards and Brew Crew with a record right around their 83-win finish from last year.

4. Reds
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Even
Always an intriguing team because of their young players, it is expected (once again) that maybe they just might put it together this season and be a contender. I'm with PECOTA which sees them as having a nice pitching staff in 2010 but not quite enough in the run-scoring department. You can see the potential for contendership, though: if Jay Bruce finally puts it all together and lives up to his former #1 prospect status, if Scott Rolen stays healthy and performs like he's expected to, if Drew Stubbs is the strong leadoff hitter many think he is, they'll score plenty of runs (assuming Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips continue to mash) and the pitching will be there to back it up. I think they'll be a fun team to watch and follow, they should stay in the mix of the things for a bit but they'll finish a few steps behind the Cubs and Brewers in the race for the division crown. Not quite the breakout team many hope for, but still it's a step in the right direction.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 70-92
My take: Over
The dark clouds above PNC Park (one of the nicest ballparks I've ever been to) are finally, ever so slowly starting to fade. The youth movement is on in full force with Andrew McCutchen leading a band of ditched ex-prospects aiming for respect. I'm interested to see what firstbaseman Jeff Clement can do now that he's finally getting a chance after being trapped in Triple-A dungeon by the Mariners for so long. McCutchen and Lastings Milledge have the makings of a special duo and there's plenty of other intrigue in their lineup but the starting rotation doesn't look very good at all. It will be interesting to see what they can do this season with so many players who should be motivated to prove they belong (Andy LaRoche, I'm looking at you) and they should have a nice bullpen, but 75 wins will be a huge year for them. I think they'll get there.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Under
Once a perennial contender, they've turned into a sideshow (with a perfect bells-and-whistles mallpark as its setting) as the men running the team have refused to let their old hopes die. Instead of blowing things up, destroying and rebuilding, they've continued to add mediocre veterans and are looking more and more like the National League's version of the Royals. Now their major league team sucks and their farm system is the worst in baseball. Their answer was to add bullpen mediocrities Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom (5.89 ERA last year) to pitch the late innings and former wife-boxer Brett Myers to fill out the rotation.

The outfield is respectable, Michael Bourn (.354 OBP and 61 steals) has turned into a nice little player, Carlos Lee will bop a few homers, and Hunter Pence can play. Lance Berkman is still a great hitter when he's healthy but everybody else in the lineup kind of sucks and in the rotation it's pretty much the same story. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez are pretty good but the rest...not so much. They're burrowing down to the bottom of a weak division and will unseat the Pirates for 6th place this season.