Rooting for the Cleveland Indians and Team Entropy

Here's hoping Carlos Santana and the Tribe can make things interesting.

It's been a rather weird baseball season thus far. The game's twin giants, the Red Sox and Yankees, are among the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Texas Rangers, a popular pick to win the American League pennant, have the worst record in all of baseball.

On the positive side of the ledger, the Baltimore Orioles have surprised everyone all year, building a commanding 7-game lead in the AL East with nobody mounting much of a threat to knock them off their perch. They've bewildered analysts by succeeding despite a subpar pitching rotation and limited contributions from key players like Matt Wieters (elbow injury, out for the year), Manny Machado (knee injury, done for the year), and Chris Davis (healthy but batting .194 following his breakout year in 2013). Their formula has been defense, homeruns, and a strong bullpen. With all the other AL East contenders faltering, that's been enough for them build up a big lead.

The Oakland A's were the most dominant team in the game for much of the year but they've experienced a sudden rapid descent in the past month after executing a daring trade that sent one of their most imposing hitters, Yoenis Cespedes, to the Red Sox for pitching ace Jon Lester. The A's were leading the AL West division for most of the season, but they're now looking up at the Angels and a possibly insurmountable 4.5-game deficit. Alas, the Wild Card safety net virtually assures they'll be playing October.

In the Midwest, Detroit and Milwaukee have also both relinquished division leads they'd been holding onto for much of the year. The Tigers have played below expectations as they often tend to. A blockbuster trade for David Price merely patched some holes in their rotation where Anibal Sanchez is hurt and Justin Verlander ineffective. Detroit hasn't fallen into any prolonged funk though, they were simply overtaken by a surging Royals team who are, like the Orioles, succeeding despite major flaws. Kansas City's offense is among the worst in the American League. Their success has been predicated on the league's best defense and a shutdown bullpen.

The Brew Crew got off to a great start, hung around atop the NL Central while their rivals struggled to figure things out, and now have gone 22-30 since the beginning of July. The wheels appear to be falling off for them as they've now lost 8 games in a row and their best player Carlos Gomez is out with a wrist injury.

Neither league looks to have much of a thrilling playoff chase in the works as the contenders are pretty clear. In the NL, the Nats, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Giants are virtual locks for the postseason with the Braves, Brewers, and Pirates fighting for the final wild card spot. In the AL it's the Orioles, Angels, and A's with the Royals, Tigers, and Mariners fighting for the other 2 spots. The Yankees are also technically in the mix but I have zero faith in them to stay there.

There's one other AL team on the outside looking in that I find highly intriguing though, and that's the Cleveland Indians.

2013 MLB Season Preview Part 2: AL Central

Snoop Lion in the house.

Continuing our quick rundown of each division...

AL Central

1. Tigers
PECOTA: 90
My pick: Even

They spent most of last season figuring things out, not solidifying first place until late September despite being the odds-on favorites to run away with the division. Once they settled in (and patched a major hole at second base), they were dominant on their way to the AL pennant.

With free agent Torii Hunter and a recovered Victor Martinez joining the star trio of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson, this is a much deeper lineup than they've had in recent years. Despite the Triple Crown performance by Cabrera, the team only put up 726 runs last year, their lowest total since 2005. They should easily exceed 800 runs this year.

The rotation is loaded, led by last year's top 2 strikeout pitchers in the American League with three above-average starters behind them. This could easily be the best starting staff in the AL. The bullpen situation is unsettled but there are enough good arms (Coke, Dotel, Albuerquerque, Benoit) to get by. They should run away with the division from the start this time and compete again for the AL championship.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 2: AL Central

Continuing our rapid run through baseball's six divisions to see what we can expect this year. 

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
PECOTA: 86 wins
My take: Over

This is the only team in any division that is a virtual lock to win its division this year. Even if they perform at the low end of the expected-potential spectrum, they'll still be superior to anyone else in this perpetually unexciting division.

Miguel Cabrera and his new teammate Prince Fielder are not only two of the most powerful and consistent hitters in baseball, they're both extremely durable. These big boys don't miss games. Predictions and projections carry so much variability but counting on Cabrera and Fielder to form one of the most potent power-hitting combos in league history is something of a foregone conclusion. Yes, that means between right now and the end of the season we'll most likely get to watch a pair of sluggers mash at Ruth-Gehrig levels.

The Wave that Washed Your Meals Away

The excitement of the 2011 major league baseball season suddenly burst into supernova recently. It all began late Tuesday night in Atlanta.

After the 3rd inning, the Pirates and Braves were locked in a 3-3 tie. Nobody managed to put across another run for the next 16 innings. They nearly played the equivalent of two full baseball games without scoring a run. I tuned into the MLB.tv feed around the 13th inning and the matchup just seemed far too boring so I skipped to a different game. Once I saw that they were headed to the 16th, I realized this could be something special. The kind of game where managers actually have to start putting their thinking caps on (both skippers confused their thinking caps with dunce caps, though, as evidenced by their long line of stupid maneuvers).

The game got to the bottom of the 19th inning when things finally got interesting. The Braves put two runners aboard with one out. Julio Lugo, who I had only recently realized was still in the majors, stood at third base. The Braves had run out of position players so they let Scott Proctor, a crappy pitcher and an even worse hitter, step to the plate. He managed to make pretty solid contact but he hit a ground ball directly at the third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Lugo took off from third towards home plate and while Alvarez hurled a perfect throw to the catcher I remember thinking that this is one of the things I love to see in baseball, a tense moment with the game on the line and a fielder executing a perfect throw to home plate to keep the game alive.

The throw home was perfect, alright. Pirates catcher Michael McHenry, a minor league scrub acquired from the Red Sox organization after a slew of Pittsburgh catchers started falling apart in succession, received the throw from Alvarez and met the oncoming Lugo a few feet in front of home plate. Lugo was out by a mile and he knew it. He didn't even try to bowl the catcher over or knock the ball out of his glove, he simply executed a feeble slide with a look on his face like he didn't want the catcher to be too rough with him. Perhaps McHenry sensed Lugo's hapnophobia because instead of firmly smacking him with the glove, he waved his arm in the vicinity of Lugo's leg.

Lugo stood up from his slide with his body slumped into disappointment when suddenly the umpire gave the signal "SAFE!" and Lugo quickly touched homeplate. The game was over. And "the umpire" was about to lose his relative anonymity. The world of baseball-watchers exploded in anger. I've never enjoyed following the stream of Twitter messages as much as I did that Tuesday night (after 1 AM, mind you). Everybody had been tuning into the game because of how unusually long it was lasting, it seemed like there was a shot at history being made. Well, it was historic alright. Many people called it the worst call they'd ever seen in a baseball game.

In retrospect, the umpire Jerry Meals apologized and admitted he messed up while some have argued that he may have actually made the correct call. Major League Baseball actually issued a statement saying that Meals screwed it up, but they can't take it back. They won't be bringing the two teams back together to re-do everything. It's in the books. Worst of all for the Pirates, who are contending for the first time in some 19 years, this could be the difference between them going to the postseason or not.

*   *   *

All of that stuff was going on around 2 AM eastern time and so the next day figured to be filled with all kinds of reactions once everyone got to gather their thoughts on the incident. Well, a huge wave of Wednesday baseball action suddenly splashed, overtaking and washing away all the Jerry Meals news that had begun to pile up.

With the trade deadline looming, the newswire had begun to buzz with big news: the St. Louis Cardinals were going to trade their young stud centerfielder, Colby Rasmus. The 24-year-old Rasmus, although a world class talent, had been squabbling with the team's manager last year and it spilled over into this season with Rasmus having a bad year to show for it. It certainly didn't help Rasmus' standing with the Cardinals that his father had the attitude of a big-mouthed little league dad constantly interfering with the team's handling of his son. Better yet, it was the Toronto Blue Jays' shrewd young general manager who was swooping in to grab Rasmus and bring him up to the nest in Toronto along with a bunch of other rejected fledglings.

Before that trade was completed, the news wire blew up again: the New York Mets had reached a deal to send Carlos Beltran, the most coveted trade bait in baseball, to the San Francisco Giants. The rumors about Beltran had been swirling around for a few weeks but suddenly the wind jutted violently like a cold day in the Bay Area and Beltran was gone. But the Mets managed to scoop up the Giants' best pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, in return. (Personally, I'm sad to see Beltran go but glad he's headed to a contender defending their championship. I'll have more to say on Beltran and the Mets soon.)

While baseball peeps were still assimilating these two huge events, an afternoon baseball game in Cleveland between the Angels and Indians suddenly demanded everyone's attention. Angels righthander Ervin Santana was pitching a no-hitter. Once everybody (including me, via my iPhone) managed to tune in, Santana cruised through the last two innings and history was made. Suddenly, nobody gave a crap about Jerry Meals. 

A Tony Sipp Soliloquy

Here's a little lyric I wrote up while watching the exciting ending to last night's Tigers-Indians ballgame. In the top of the 13th, the Tigers hit two deep shots in a row that looked like homeruns but were caught at the wall in centerfield.

Tied in extra innings, long night in Cleveland
              Indians and Tigers toil.
Detroit thumps bombs, roaring bereavement:
            warning track catch, runs foiled.
Tony Sipp zips overhand heat,
            deep fly balls ensue.
Prospectus reference sought for statspeak,
           on Cleveland: he's Tony who???
Sipp with two P's, the capsule reads...

"power southpaw reliever" with strikeout stuff
If to deep flies the wall catches up,
           he'll last in this league a decade or up.
Good enough.

Early Season Baseball Ponderings

The baseball season is barely one-tenth of the way through, still far too early to make any solid judgments but there's been plenty of interesting developments to watch thus far. In the three full weeks of watching games (I haven't been able to watch any of the NHL or NBA playoff games so I've settled for absorbing tons of baseball on MLB.tv) I've caught a bunch of interesting observations.

Though I'm often clicking through various concurrent games depending on the situation, competitiveness, team interest level, etc of each one, I do often find myself deciding to stay put and watch one baseball game in its entirety. It's often said that you see something new any time you watch a baseball game---in other words, no matter how many games you've watched, something will occur that you've never seen and it's often something memorable. A couple weeks ago, I was watching a Saturday afternoon game between the Tampa Bay Rays (a team I'm quickly becoming a fan of) and the Chicago White Sox. In the bottom of the 4th inning, Tampa starter Wade Davis got himself into a jam walking the bases loaded with two outs. Lucky for him, the batter he was facing was the #9 hitter in the White Sox lineup.

He thew a biting fastball up and in shattering the bat of Brett Morel who followed through with his splintered lumber and managed to pop the ball up just barely over the pitcher's head and beyond the mound at such a perfect and unintentionally soft velocity that it plopped down onto the grass untouched by the onrushing middle infielders. I've never seen such an occurrence, a perfectly lucky little blip in the expected outcome of things. It was like a pinball that manages to get lodged into some perfectly unreachable, almost structurally defective spot in a pinball machine. And a run scored on the play which loaded the bases once again, this time with the leadoff batter coming up for the White Sox. Alas, the Sox counterproductively put one of the worst hitters in baseball at the very top of their lineup so up steps slappy out-machine Juan Pierre to presumably kill his team's big rally and let the opposing pitcher escape unscathed. That's what I thought would happen.

Instead, Pierre took a mighty swing at the first pitch he saw and clocked a liner to right field that looked to possibly be a homerun otherwise an off-the-wall extra base hit that would clear the bases. Suddenly across the screen, in full horizontal hoverance above the warning track dirt, rightfielder Sam Fuld launched and about 3/4ths of the way through his flight managed to grab the flying orb in his outstretched glove. Inning over, three runs saved. It has to be on the short list of greatest catches I've ever seen while watching a game and it was especially shocking because of the above described circumstances.

Rob Neyer wrote a nice piece on "The Legend of Sam Fuld" the other day, noting his penchant for acrobatic catches. Looking through the video archives of Fuld's many highlight reel catches, though, it appears he's got a certain flair for the dramatic, often diving or sliding when he doesn't really have to. Having said that, the catch in that White Sox game is still one of the best I've ever seen.

*   *   *

As of this morning, the New York Mets have the worst record in baseball. They're off to a terrible start on the year and they've lost 9 out of their last 10. Most of that can be attributed to their terrible pitching, they've given up more runs that any team in the National League thus far, they've also looked atrocious in the field, dropping or completely missing easy fly balls in key moments.

The offense has been terrible as well, but I'm happy to see that Carlos Beltran has returned to his awesome self, hitting .286/.355/.554 thus far, after a bunch of knee problems had left his future in doubt before the season. The 33-year-old Beltran won't be galloping around the pastures of centerfield anymore and he seems to have put on some weight, but the guy can still hit and that's great. If he stays healthy and keeps hitting like this he'll almost certainly be traded away during the season and I'll be sad to see his Mets career come to an end without him ever getting to avenge that horrible swingless strikeout to end the Mets' World Series run in 2006. But at least he'll probably go out on a strong note and escape this festering team.

*   *   *

Through some sort of glitch in the system, I managed to scoop up righthander Dan Haren very late in my fantasy draft this year. That glitch seems to mirror the real life one in which somehow, in a league where durable, effective pitchers are such a rare and treasured commodity, the Angels picked up Haren last year for spare parts. Haren has been superb thus far this year. In four starts he's got a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he's thrown a few gems, including a one-hit shutout of the Indians (the highest scoring team in the league right now, for what it's worth). His approach has been fun to watch, as he operates with emotionless precision, carving through batting orders and looking away heartlessly after a hitter flails at strike three and marches away frustrated. He looks extremely confident in his stuff, throwing lots of changeups and darting splitters. Don't be surprised if he reels off some crazy 15-2 first half, this guy has always been that good.

*   *   *

That we're talking about the Cleveland Indians at all is an example of how small sample sizes can be deceiving but, to be honest, they're kicking ass thus far. After 18 games, they're tied for the best record in baseball and they've got by far the best run differential in baseball. I can promise you they will not maintain that pace but, still, it counts for something. As I noted in my AL Central preview, this is a team that can score some runs, and they've got the best offense in the league thus far in the young season. And they've done it thus far without strong output from their two best hitters, as both Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana have struggled thus far.

Similar to Carlos Beltran, I'm particularly glad that Grady Sizemore has made his way back and didn't seem to lose anything along his journey through the underworld. The former face of the franchise and projected superstar hasn't played at full strength in two years and yet he came back this week looking as good as ever. In his first game he smacked a homer and a double then went 3 for 5 with a walk and a double in his second game. He's still only 28 and so this could be the beginning of Sizemore's second career.

*   *   *

One thing that's always great to observe as the season takes shape is the emergence of rookies. Three rookie pitchers have caught my attention early on:

• Zach Britton of the Orioles has shown a composed presence for a 23-year-old rookie and the lefty has been a groundball machine, relying mostly on a hard sinker. A lefty with a 6/2 K/BB ratio and a bunch of groundballs, he looks like a star in the making.
• Kyle Drabek has been talked about as a prospect for years now and his major league performance thus far hasn't disappointed. Wearing jersey number 4, a rare pitcher with a single-digit jersey number (though I'm not sure why that's so uncommon), he's been solid for the Blue Jays thus far. He's walked a few too many batters (15 in 25 innings thus far), but he's had great stuff and doesn't look the least bit flustered out there. I watched his first game this year and he was virtually unhittable against the Twins. He went 7 innings and gave up one hit while inducing 11 ground ball outs.
• There's not much incentive to watching the Seattle Mariners these days but big righty Michael Pineda is worth a look. He's only had three starts thus far but there have been flashes of dominance from the 22-year-old. In his second career start, he pitched into the 8th inning against the Blue Jays and struck out 7. He relies almost entirely on a fastball-slider combo, not much in the off-speed department. The fastball sits in the high-90s and the lanky 6-foot-7 hurler has a very smooth, easy throwing motion. It's extremely early in the season and even earlier in this guy's career, but he already looks like a great complement to combine with King Felix atop that Seattle rotation for years to come.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 5: AL Central

The AL's best hitter: Miguel Cabrera

AL Central
The top 3 teams in this division are once again tightly bunched up. The Twins have come out on top each of the last two years but offseason additions in Chicago and Detroit have those two teams primed to battle it out for the top spot with the Twins probably lagging a couple games behind.

1. White Sox
PECOTA: 82-80
My take: Over

The Big Donkey is ready to blast this team into the playoffs.

There can't have been a more perfect match of a team and player than the White Sox and their new designated hitter, Adam Dunn. The 6-foot-6 behemoth known as "The Big Donkey" has been clobbering an average of 40 homeruns per season for the last seven years while playing for a few uncompetitive National League teams, lumbering around the outfield and first base bag and making a few fielding bloopers along the way. A seemingly natural-born DH, he now joins a lineup that got zilch from its designated hitter spot last season while still winning 88 games and their home park is one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the major leagues. This should work out well.

The rotation doesn't really have one truly great pitcher but it does have four very good ones and, maybe, a still-effective Jake Peavy in the fifth spot. They're backed up by a sturdy bullpen that features a rare set of absolutely filthy left-handers, Matt Thonton and Chris Sale, both of whom average 96+ mph on their heaters.

The addition of Dunn, a breakout season from 24-year-old Gordon Beckham, and that flame-throwing dynamic duo of lefties pushes this team just barely past the Tigers in a tight race this year. 86 wins and the division title.

2. Tigers
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Over

An extremely top-heavy team but they've got some of the game's absolute best talent at the top. This team reminds me a bit of the Cardinals (before Wainwright got injured) in the way they're constructed, look at it:

an other-worldly slugger
       Miguel Cabrera / Albert Pujols

next to a second solid bat
       Victor Martinez / Matt Holliday

while two of the league's best starting pitchers lead the pitching staff
        Justin Verlander / Adam Wainwright
        Max Scherzer / Chris Carpenter

The comparison is probably giving Scherzer a bit too much credit since he hasn't accomplished that much in the majors yet but last year was his first in the American League and he managed pretty well for a 25-year-old, putting up a superb 2.47 ERA in the second half. I expect big things from him this year. If the White Sox slip at all or suffer an injury to one of their best players, I think the Tigers will take the division. Regardless, I think they'll be an 85-win team that stays in the mix with the Twins and Sox all year. As always, I'll be rooting for a three-way tie just because those always mean extra baseball, i.e. tiebreakers.

3. Twins
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Under

The Twinkies always puzzle me, they've really got a knack for defying expectations.* They were without their closer for the entire season and lost their best hitter for the second half yet they won 94 games last year. They'll probably prove me wrong again this year but I still think their lineup is weak behind the two big hitters, Mauer & Morneau. With the exception of Morneau (if he's recovered from the concussion he suffered), the infielders aren't reliable hitters at all. The team is benching Jim Thome in favor of a lesser batsmen to be the DH.

Francisco Liriano seems to have regained his ridiculous stuff (201 Ks in 191 innings last year) and he'll probably be great again but none of the other starters are anything special; overall the Twins have the weakest pitching staff of the three Central contenders. With the kinks in their lineup, I don't think this team overcomes the replenished Sox and Tiger squads.

*My older brother John, a baseball junkie who got me hooked on the game originally, once brought up an interesting theory that might account for this. When you think of the very best catchers, their teams are always competitive. Looking back at just the last 15 years or so, the best catchers have been Mike Piazza, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Jorge Posada, and Joe Mauer (with some big seasons by Javy Lopez and Pudge Rodriguez) and all of those guys, when they were on the field, played for strong teams. You think of the best catchers of all time (Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey) and they've all been on great teams. The true defensive value for catchers has always been hard for anybody to calculate and there's no doubt that a good-hitting catcher is one of the absolute most valuable gems in baseball. When Mauer is healthy, the Twins seem to be competitive no matter who they put on the field with him.

4. Indians
PECOTA: 74-88
My take: Under

This team might sneak up on people. If Grady Sizemore stays on the field, they've got a pretty potent group of hitters with Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Shin-Soo Choo (such a wonderful name). Matt LaPorta was a monster in the minors and college ball but hasn't hit well at all in the majors thus far. He's only just turned 26 and could still break out, plus Travis Hafner is still an above-average hitter even though his power is depleted from his days of slugging around .600.

They won't win too many games because the pitching staff stinks but they'll at least be playing some exciting games this year with an offense that can score. I took the "under" on their 74-88 PECOTA forecast above but I think they'll win more than 70 games, definitely.


5. Royals
PECOTA: 68-94
My take: Under

I'm glad to see that the organization is finally getting some positive attention because of the historically fecund farm system they've got, but the current major league team looks as bad as ever. They have exactly one proven above-average offensive player in the lineup, Billy Butler, and he's not all that spectacular while the best pitcher in their rotation probably isn't good enough to be a 5th starter on any of the contending teams in baseball. Joakim Soria is an excellent closer, though, if that's good for anything.

While they'll surely sow some of those magic prospect beans into the major league roster this season, don't expect the harvest for another year at least. As currently assembled, this group could challenge the Astros for worst team in baseball.

Tuesday's Full Moon Augurs Another No-Hitter

Since we've had three straight no-hitters that have all occurred on the night of the full moon (and because no-hit bids are happening often enough) I am predicting that we will see a no-hitter on Tuesday night August 24th which is a full moon. But who will throw it? I've identified some potential candidates out of the moundsmen who are scheduled to pitch that night. We can look at the batting average (since we're talking about a no-hitter, not necessarily a perfect game) of the opposing team and the batting average allowed and overall dominance of the starting pitcher. Keep in mind he'd also have to be a guy who can go the full 9 innings without getting pulled for running up a high pitch count (although that didn't stop Edwin Jackson two full moons ago when he threw 149 pitches).

We've actually got a few strong candidates pitching that night.

Most likely:
Adam Wainwright vs the Pittsburgh Pirates

By far the strongest candidate to throw a no-no on Tuesday, Wainwright is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league right now. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, ranks behind only Roy Halladay with his 5 complete games, and has the 4th most strikeouts in the league. He is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the second-worst batting average in all of baseball.

Other candidates:

Cole Hamels vs Houston Astros

Hamels had a game against St. Louis last month in which he allowed only 2 hits in 8 innings and before his most recent start (a clunker against the Giants) he had a string of 3 consecutive dominant games, striking out nearly ten per game during that span and pitching into the late innings each time. The Astros as a team are batting .246 on the year (ahead of only Pittsburgh in the NL) even though they've actually played a bit better of late. If it's not a no-hitter, it should still be a pretty dominant game for Cole Hamels.

R.A. Dickey vs Marlins, Josh Johnson vs Mets
The knuckleballing sensation known as R.A. Dickey nearly threw the first no-hitter in Mets history last week, giving up only 1 hit (to the pitcher Cole Hamels) while throwing a complete game. The Marlins rank in the bottom third in the majors with a .255 batting average and have been no-hit already this year but they've got plenty of threats in their lineup, particularly Hanley Ramirez. While Ramirez is having a subpar season by his own standards (117 OPS+ after three seasons above 140) he's still an excellent hitter and, as the leadoff man, will be granted at least 3 chances to hit Dickey's knuckler.

Opposing Dickey and the Mets will be the towering (6 foot 7) ace for the Marlins, Josh Johnson. For most of the year Johnson has been nearly untouchable but he's slowed down recently and was even knocked out of a game in the 4th inning by the Reds. The Mets are pretty bad in the batting average department (.248) and in Johnson's 12 innings against them so far this year they've batted just .182 against him. They've been pretty pathetic at the plate lately, culminating in a weak showing in Pittsburgh. They were held to 1 run on 5 hits earlier today against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Should be an interesting pitcher's duel in Queens.


Gio Gonzalez vs Cleveland Indians
He's prone to wildness so he might rack up a high pitch count but he still has the potential to dominate, especially against a flimsy Cleveland lineup (they were the victims in the famous Armando Galarraga perfect game incident). Opposing hitters are batting just .227 against Gonzalez this year.


Not likely but certainly possible:


Josh Beckett vs Seattle Mariners
Beckett hasn't had a good year at all so far. While his strikeout and walk numbers are fine (8 Ks and 2 walks per 9 IP), he's been shelled for an OPS against of .856. But on this night he'll be facing the absolute worst lineup in major league baseball. The Mariners are hitting a pathetic .238 as a team.

Gavin Floyd vs Baltimore Orioles
I see Floyd as the wild card of the group. He's been hit hard in his past two starts and these Baltimore Orioles he'll be facing are playing much better than the lowly O's I saw earlier this year at Petco. Floyd has occasionally put it all together and pitched some dominant games this year including a game at Wrigley in which he had a no-hitter going with two outs in the seventh inning. I don't think he'll get one against Showalter's boys but he belongs on this list as someone who might do it.

One-In-A-Million Shot Bonus:

Ervin Santana vs Tampa Bay Rays
Nothing against Santana, but this is just kind of a joke because the Rays have already been no-hit twice this year and once last year. In all seriousness though, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the Tampa Bay Rays, who might be the best team in major league baseball (or, at worst, the second-best behind the Yankees), will go hitless in a game for the third time this season. Santana has three complete games already this year and has been pretty stingy in his two most recent starts, giving up 4 hits or less in both games. It would be a memorable and historic event if the Rays were the victims of a no-hitter again but perhaps not as strange as having four consecutive no-hitters occur on the night of a full moon.

A Double Feature Extravaganza! 2010 MLB Season Preview Parts 5 and 6: AL Central and AL East

Due to my attending the Anaheim Ducks-vs-Vancouver Canucks hockey game last night, I was unable to spend any time putting together Part 5 of our continuing preview of the baseball season. I was aiming to finish this 6-part preview today and so what that means is: a Double Feature! With the season starting tomorrow night and exhibitions already underway in the major league stadiums (Angel Stadium was packed last night as they played the Dodgers and I watched the Twins and Cardinals play a game at brand new Target Field earlier today) let's take one last look at what's to come.



AL Central
It's taken an extra game to decide the division in each of the last two seasons and it just might happen again this year as things are looking to be very tight between five flawed teams. Just like their cousins in the National League Central, this is the weakest division in the AL and it might only take 82 or 83 wins to come out on top. The new-look Twinkies are considered to be the favorite but the White Sox have assembled a pitching staff that can match up with anyone. Detroit, Cleveland, and Kansas City are all closely bunched together and if a few things were to go right, they can be in the mix too.

1. Twins
PECOTA: 81-81
My take: Over

The lineup looks great but do they have enough pitching to win the division? I think it'll be enough to just barely get them over the hump. A deeper lineup than they've had in recent years with the additions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson to go along with Mighty Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau will scare the bajeebies out of their AL opponents and I think it'll be enough to supplement their unspectacular pitching. In the wake of closer Joe Nathan's injury they've decided to replace him through the trade market...no wait, a closer-by-committee system! ah, forget it...they'll actually just hand the ball to 6-foot-11 behemoth Jon Rauch. The loss of Nathan is a big deal but I don't think Rauch will represent such a significant drop-off as to ruin the team's chances. Not with the lineup they've assembled. The rotation is nothing special but what it lacks in frontline production it makes up for in sheer quantity of capable contributors. 84 wins and another division title.

2. White Sox
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Over
Kind of the opposite of the Twins, they've got a superb rotation from top to bottom and a pretty good bullpen to back it up (especially the fire-breathing monster that is Matt Thornton) but a lineup of question marks. Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy? Will Gordon Beckham improve on his solid rookie debut? Does Paul Konerko have anything left in the tank? Can Andruw Jones buy his soul back from the devil? Will Juan Pierre provide anything other than frustration?
The White Sox chapter in this year's Baseball Prospectus annual was actually so good that it kinda turned me into a bit of a Sox fan this year. It describes how, through trades and picking up other teams' developed prospects as well as over-the-hill veterans (like Andruw Jones this year), Kenny Williams has taken big gambles but  assembled a strong competitve squad these last few years and I'm curious to see if this year's gambles (Rios, Jones, Pierre, Mark Teahen) will pay off. Led by Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy, the pitching is going to be wonderful and at least keep the team afloat. If even a few of those question marks turn out well though, they'll be fighting the Twins up until the final day of the season if not longer.

3. Indians
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Under
An absolute disaster last year, the Tribe is generally looked upon as a rebuilding non-contender this year. But they might surprise alot of people. Just like the other imperfect teams in this division, they have the makings of a nice offense but zero pitching. They haven't really done much to try to improve their wretched run-prevention and they'll be depending on a front three of Jake Westbrook (missed all of 2009), Fausto Carmona (6.32 ERA last year), and Justin Masterson (reliever-turned-starter who walked 5.5 per 9 innings in '09). Reports out of Spring Training about the 26-year-old former 19-game winner Fausto Carmona are very positive and if the rediscovery of his ability to pitch well is indeed true, this team might actually hang in the race for a while on the strength of their lineup. That lineup is not only good but also young (aside from DH Travis Hafner, the projected starters are all 28 or under) and so there is plenty of break-out potential. There ought to be alot more excitement in Cleveland this year but I don't think they'll be in the mix for the division title. 76 wins sounds good.

4. Tigers
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Under

An incongruent mix of expensive veterans and cheap youngsters, this team faded out of first place last year and I expect them to continue to fade in 2010. Justin Verlander had a terrific season last year (league-leading 269 Ks) but was worked like a mule, throwing 300 more pitches than any other pitcher in the majors, and more than any American League pitcher in the last 10 years. It'd be a nice surprise if he made it through this season without an arm injury and he's anchoring this team's strength, the rotation. Although it wasn't well-received in Detroit, I liked the trade GM Dave Dombrowski made in the offseason shipping out Edwin Jackson at his peak value and Curtis Granderson as he approaches 30 and bringing in a young centerfielder (23-year-old Austin Jackson) and a young pitcher with ace-level potential in Max Scherzer. The signing of Johnny Damon also makes sense although his production will probably suffer in their big ballpark. With all its pieces working properly, this looks like a .500-level team and, yes, that would be good enough to win this division. Because I imagine they'll have some injuries and old players being ineffective, they look more like a rickety old car sputtering along with shiny new rims and a sweet stereo system. They won't be in it for the long haul.


5. Royals
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Under
Nobody is quite sure what it is the Royals are trying to do. They spent the offseason adding some more crappy veteran players (Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, Rick Ankiel) to a lineup that already had more than enough crappy veteran players. Ankiel and Podsednik might help out their atrocious defense but bringing them on board is really just a sad attempt by general manager Dayton Moore to get into the hip new fad of focusing on defense. While Podzilla has speed and Ankiel a great arm, neither player has ever been noted for above-average defensive performance and so it's another example of Moore's incompetence and ignorance of advanced metrics. If not for Zack Greinke, there would be no reason to ever watch this team play and even with Greinke there is no reason to believe they will be anywhere near competitive, even in a perennially weak division.

And now, the grand finale...

AL East
This is it, the main event, the Royal Rumble Battle Royale. We've got three teams vying for two playoff spots and those three teams are also the winners of the last three American League pennants. They've all made adjustments and are primed to do battle. (We also have a couple other punching bags, one of which might punch back sooner or later.) PECOTA's predictions for how things will turn out are included here but I must note that the CHONE projection system has a much different view, with the Yankees running away with the division again at 99 wins and the Rays left out of the mix with a mere 88 while the Red Sox draw the Wild Card to the tune of 93 victories. Here's what I think will happen:

1. Red Sox
PECOTA: 95-67
My take: Under
The Theo Epstein Era (or Dynasty) faces a new chapter. After a strong year in '09 followed by an early postseason exit, the young Sox GM sought to address the team's main and perhaps only weakness: it's defense. To address this need, he scooped up one of the one best fielding centerfielders (according to UZR or Ultimate Zone Rating, that hip "new" thing) from the last few years, Mike Cameron, as well as one of the baseball's best defensive third basemen, Adrain Beltre. Great pick-ups both, they've brought the team plenty of press (too much) about it's focus on defense and how they are finding a new way to win. What's being neglected is the fact that Beltre (three straight 25+ HR seasons before an injury riddled '09) and Cameron (.281 EqA last year) can both hit a little too as can Marco Scutaro, the new shortstop who finished last year with a 5.6 WARP (higher than the likes of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Justin Upton). One mustn't forget that those three will merely be the last three hitters in what will be a very strong Red Sox lineup. As a team, they had the 3rd-highest EqA in the AL last year and, even with the loss of Jason Bay, they've probably got a better lineup than the one trotted out on Opening Day of 2009.

With the addition of former Angels ace John Lackey, the rotation looks absurdly good. Lackey will slot in as their #3 starter behind Josh Beckett and the Sox' emerging ace, 26-year-old Jon Lester. The lefty Lester placed in the top 5 in both ERA and strikeouts last year and led the Sox team with a 5.5 WARP. They'll probably have the best back-end starters in baseball as well with the combination of Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and the ol' reliable knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. To go along with that, their bullpen has a chance to be the best in baseball as well. The closer, Jonathan Papelbon, showed a tiny chink in his armor losing last year's deciding playoff game but he's still one of the most dominant hurlers in the game right now with a career 1.84 ERA in almost 300 innings. With that rotation, a strong defense behind it, and a deep lineup (the #9 hitter will probably be Marco Scutaro, he of the .379 OBP last year) this powerhouse squad will come out on top in an ultra-competitive AL East.


2. Rays
PECOTA: 91-71
My take: Over
One look at their roster and the depth is staggering. Going down the lineup:
-Shortstop Jason Bartlett is coming off a monster .320/.389/.490 season and, even with any expected regression, should still be good
-Carl Crawford is turning 28 and his 2010 season is basically one extended opportunity to showcase his skills and why he deserves a huge contract from a new team next season. Yes, the contract-year theory.

-Ben Zobrist is the new baseball sensation, bursting onto the scene last year with a reconstructed swing (tweaked for him by The Swing Mechanic) that knocked 27 homers while the versatile Zorilla played all over the field with splendid defense everywhere. He was neck and neck with Albert Pujols in WARP for a while even though Pujols batted 100 more times than he did. This year he'll play rightfield, secondbase and anywhere else Joe Maddon needs him to while putting plenty of runs on the board.
-24 years old, coming off a 33-homerun season, one of the best defensive players in the league last year, and primed for a monster season in 2010, Evan Longoria is "all that and a bag of chips" as BP says in this year's book.
-#5 hitter Carlos Pena led the American League in homeruns last year with 39 and, like Crawford, this is his contract year.

Need I go on? That's just the first five hitters in a lineup that does not have a weak spot. Catcher Dioner Navarro isn't a great hitter but his back-up Kelly Shoppach is and he'll probably get plenty of playing time from Joe Maddon, perhaps as part of a platoon. Pat Burrell had a bad year in '09 but, if he doesn't rebound, there's enough depth to plug another hitter in the DH spot.
I haven't even mentioned their rotation which consists of five young pitchers (oldest is 28, James Shields) that all have the potential to be an ace, especially the pitcher who will be their #3 guy: 24-year-old former #1-overall draft-pick David Price. The bullpen is a potential weakness but they've signed the reliably effective Rafael Soriano and the farm system is so rich with prospects that they can pick somebody up in a trade if need be. They're awesome but in this division they'll be the Wild Card team. Expect a tight finish, though, and plenty of exciting games against the Sox and Yanks.

3. Yankees
PECOTA: 90-72

My take: Over
The 103-win behemoth that ran through the league like an unstoppable force last year will be toppled. Adding Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson to an already awesome rotation and lineup sounds great but I think last year's run will leave the oldies like Derek Jeter (36 years old), Jorge Posada (38), Mariano Rivera (40) on the ground gasping for air in this year's Roller Derby-style race. GM Brian Cashman is a sharp fellow and he recognized the need to curtail the potential drop off if the aforementioned Yankee statues suffer setbacks and he went out and added more talent. He also let old-timers like Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon hit the road. But I think they're due for some nicks and scratches. Injuries and missed-time as well as obligatory regression. Granderson and Vazquez have hopped on board a presumed-powerhouse defending-champion looking to cruise through the season like a shiny new sports car on the highway. But the Orioles' dumptruck is letting out little rocks and pebbles that'll crack the windshield and scratch the paint on that sports car and the Rays and Red Sox are souped-up vehicles moving with greater urgency towards their destination. For the Yanks it's a tie for second-place with the Rays at the finish line (92 wins apiece), bowing out of the picture on a tie-breaker.

4. Orioles
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Under
No, Matt Weiters did not solve world hunger or blast a pitch so hard that the Big Bang reoccurred, but he made a pretty strong debut for a 23-year-old catcher with absurd expectations and continued the process of trickling in prospects with star-level potential for the Orioles. This team is not ready to compete, their pitching rotation will mostly serve as a homerun-launching machine for the AL East beasts above, but they've come a long way and a deep lineup will make them respectable this year.

5. Blue Jays
PECOTA: 72-90
My take: Under
Unless Major League Baseball does something drastic like realigning the divisions, it will be more of the same for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future. The new GM seems like another potential wiz-kid but he's got a long way to climb and he's already a few steps behind the Orioles who have assembled the pieces of a long-term contender the last few years while the Jays tread water. Adam Lind and Travis Snider both look like the real deal and maybe prospect Brett Wallace will turn into a nice player but that's about it as far as young hitters. The Jays have gained a reputation for having a seemingly endless supply of capable young pitchers but none of them have really amounted to much thus far and there's a Grand Canyon-sized gaping hole to fill now that Roy Halladay is gone. This year they'll be a pretty bad team with a good bullpen. I predict them to lose 100 games and trade off whatever they can, most likely the constituents of the pen.

Happy Baseball Everyone!