Showing posts with label Brewers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brewers. Show all posts

Monday, April 1, 2013

2013 MLB Season Preview Part 5: NL Central

Continuing our series of predictions for each division, this time I'll keep the comments short as the season is already under way and these need to get finished.

NL Central
The Astros are no longer around to serve as a punching bag for the rest of the division, but the story here remains the same: a battle for first between the two teams who wear red. 

1. Cardinals
PECOTA: 83 wins
My pick: Over
Yadi shall lead the way for the Cards.


A very strong offensive team with one of the top hitting prospects in baseball (Oscar Taveras) still stuck in the minors waiting for a spot to open up. They'll score plenty, it's just a question of whether the rotation holds up without stalwart Chris Carpenter around. They've got a few young pitchers who'll end up either in key relief roles or starting, I think it'll all work out fine as one of the game's best catchers Yadier Molina will be behind the plate to guide the new blood.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 5: NL Central

NL Central

Coming down to the finish line here, I'd like to get this completed before the season begins later tonight. Will thus limit each team's preview to no more than two sentences...

1. Brewers
PECOTA: 86 wins
My take: Even

The top-flight pitching staff is backed up by a much-improved defense. Losing Prince Fielder certainly hurts but the lineup still has plenty of pop.

2. Reds
PECOTA: 85 wins
My take: Even

Solid all-around team in every respect, the addition of Mat Latos keeps them contending all season long. The result, thanks to some inevitable blunders from manager Dusty Baker, will be just short of the postseason.

3. Cardinals
PECOTA: 89 wins
My take: Under


Overall, the team looks surprisingly well-off despite losing one of the best players in team history. Besides Pujols, there's been far too much change here for them to keep up the championship pace, though.

4. Cubs
PECOTA: 74 wins
My take: Even

All eyes are on Theo Epstein and his gang of mighty men to see how they will go about turning this underwhelming group into contenders. If they don't immediately gut the team, the Cubs might surprise some people.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 72 wins
My take: Even

At this point, they've had the worst 20-year stretch of any team in sports history so I'll be pulling for them to improve. Not bloody likely, though.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 62 wins
My take: Way under

How long can the DisAstros go? Certainly less than 50 wins and maybe a shot at the most losses ever.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Pennant Picks

Baseball events often serve as a time marker for me. I can look back at past exciting or historic events happening in baseball games and recall where I was at the time, what was going on in my life or in the world at large.

I watched the first game of the Yankees-Mets Subway Series in 2000 on a little portable television in the back of a car while my dad drove me and some friends home from a Saturday evening hockey game in Long Island. When the Yanks and Red Sox started their marathon Game 7 in 2003 (eventually won by Aaron Boone's walkoff homer) I was playing a roller hockey game for my college team at an outdoor rink in Chelsea Piers. I saw the White Sox win the World Series in 2005 at Mickey Mantle's restaurant near Central Park while on a date with a girl from Italy. 

The last two Octobers I watched from the living room of my San Diego apartment and now I've witnessed the excitement of this year's pennant chase here in Austin. The classic deciding game Friday night between the Phillies and Cardinals will forever be etched in my memory as I watched it unfold in amazement while eating baked ziti and sipping beer at an overpriced bar/restaurant down the road. (I attempted to watch the first game of that series at another restaurant last week but once the Texas Longhorns game started, every television in the bar was switched to that crappy meaningless game against Iowa State and I was screwed. Will certainly always remember that, too.)

I wasn't alive in the late 1960s but from watching Ken Burns' baseball documentary over and over again, I've come to associate the baseball events going at that time with the social upheavals and global events going on at the same time. In that documentary series, each decade gets its own lengthy treatment and the 60s is by far my favorite. The Civil Rights movement, Vietnam, the assassination of JFK (and RFK, Malcolm X, and MLK) aren't ignored, in fact they are perfectly weaved in to the baseball events in that decade as Bob Gibson's Cardinals dominated the era, Carl Yastrzemski carried the Sox in '67, the Orioles built a powerhouse and Washington DC nearly burnt to the ground after rioting in response to the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Protesters burned their draft cards and choppers flew over the jungles of Saigon.

As incredible as the crescendo of this baseball season has been, it will always be associated in my mind with the movement springing up in downtown Manhattan (my former stomping grounds) and spreading across the nation, the peaceful uprising and dissent against oppressive oligarchy and austerity measures. I confess to being a severe baseball addict, but as exciting and engaging as it has all been this year, the Occupy Wall Street news has been competing for my attention since it began in mid-September. The baseball games have often absorbed me in transfixion but at the same time my thoughts are constantly with the people out sleeping on the cement in the cold New York autumn.

Now, on to the baseball...

It seemed like nothing could touch the melodrama and excitement of the regular season's conclusion, but then we witnessed a Divison Series that featured four tightly fought matchups, three of which went down to the final game, and two of which saw huge upsets. The Rays series only lasted four games but the last three of those were all nail-biters. Now the smoke has cleared and we're left with just four teams in matchups that look to be just as competitive and entertaining as anything we've seen all year. Here are some thoughts on the two series we will watch over the next week.

National League Championship Series
Cardinals (90-72) vs. Brewers (96-66)

The Brewers were a popular World Series pick but I don't think anybody imagined they would be in this position, facing their sworn enemies for the NL pennant. The Cardinals don't belong here. They lost their best pitcher before the season began, were written off as a contender in Spring Training, and were trailing the final playoff spot by 9 games in early September. When they managed to climb all the way back into it and win on the final day, that only guaranteed them a match against the best team in the major leagues, the 102-win Phillies. Well, they've slayed yet another dragon and here they are.

This looks to be an extremely close and exciting series. These two teams genuinely don't like each other, they had some bean ball incidents this summer, lots of trash talk, and they represent two different poles on the spectrum---the Cards are the gritty, scrappy veterans and the Brewers are young, loud-mouthed and here for the first time. The Cardinals have been doing this for a good 12 years now, this is their 6th appearance in an LCS during that span while the Brewers organization had not won a playoff series since 1982. At that time they were still in the American League, led by manager Harvey Keunn, they were known as "Harvey's Wallbangers" and they went all the way to the World Series where they lost to... the Cardinals! (Dan Okrent's great book 9 Innings covers those Brewers at length.)

On the field, the teams are closely matched in the rotation, bullpen, defense, and lineup. While the Brewers boast a superb top-three starting pitchers in Yovani Gallardo, Zack Grienke, and Shaun Marcum, the Cardinals' top-three are no slouches and perfectly capable of matching up against the much more heralded Milwaukee trio. Chris Carpenter leads the St. Louis bunch with his alliterative appellation and strike zone carving repertoire, young lefty Jaime Garcia put up basically the same numbers as Carpenter in fewer innings, and Edwin Jackson is capable of matching zeroes with anybody the Brewers have. Both teams run deep in the bullpen, too.

Both teams pack high-octane offenses mostly led, again, by superior trios. For Milwaukee it's Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks in the heart of the lineup while St. Louis relies on Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. Combined, those trios match up pretty well although maybe the Cards have a very slight edge. Outside of those, the role players seem to tilt in the Cardinals' favor. Third baseman David Freese would be a household name by now if he could ever stay healthy because the boy can hit. Yadier Molina emerged as one of the better hitting catchers in baseball this year, shortstop Rafael Furcal has looked like his old self in this postseason, and the Cardinals even boast a pretty strong bench (that micromanager Tony LaRussa loves to employ).

In comparison, the Brewers have a few more liabilities on offense. Guys like Casey McGehee, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jonathan Lucroy can pop out a homerun every now and then but they had poor seasons overall. Neither team is any good defensively, although I think analysts are sometimes a bit too overzealous in dismissing the Brewers in that respect.

Really, the teams are so closely matched that there's no way to pinpoint a particular weakness that will decide the series. It should be one for the ages, perhaps the best LCS since the Red Sox and Yankees in 2004. I prefer to see the Brewers win and they are my pick because they have homefield advantage but I think it will go all 7 games and feature plenty of fireworks.

American League Championship Series
Tigers (95-67) vs. Rangers (96-66)

This matchup, to me, looks closer than it really is. The Rangers are a far superior team, in fact, they were probably the best team in all of baseball this year (Baseball Prospectus has a rather complicated extraction that bears this out). Jon Daniels deserves a lot of credit, he was the youngest general manager in baseball history when he stepped into the role for the Rangers in 2005 at the age of 28, and he has built this team into a well-rounded, deep powerhouse.

Let me get this out of the way: I live in Texas right now and the team Daniels has assembled is an admirable one, but I'm not a fan of this team at all. Eric over at Pitchers & Poets recently wrote a nice piece about why he's pulling for the Rangers despite their shady associations (George W. Bush being the most prominent one) but I'm not falling for it. I'd certainly like to root for this team because of a guy like Jon Daniels and what he's done here, but I've been to the ballpark, I've watched this team for years as an Oakland A's fan and I just don't like them.

As I wrote earlier this year, the Detroit Tigers are a team that I can root for. They represent a decrepit, broken down and demoralized city that has hosted baseball since the beginning of the American League. Detroit is a rich sports town with a great baseball history. Texas? I couldn't watch a Texas Rangers playoff game at a bar because a fucking Texas-Iowa State college football game was on. I can't root for that kind of stupidity. Anywho...

The Rangers are an all-around powerhouse that can beat up any team and their dad. Adrian Beltre blasted three homeruns in one game the other day and he's probably the third-best hitter on this team (behind Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton). The lineup is absolutely scary. If there's one thing that might be in the Tigers' favor here, it's that there are so many right-handed hitters in the lineup and Detroit has an all-righty pitching staff but the Rangers don't seem to care what hand the pitcher throws with. They'll blast off against anybody. The Detroit offense can put up runs too, most of them will come from Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta is an interesting player not just because of the misplaced "h" in his name but because he seemingly resurrected his career in the Motor City and renewed his status as an offensive threat. Alex Avila, the rookie catcher, had a spectacular season at the plate but so far in the playoffs he hasn't shown up (just 1 hit in 16 at-bats).

Like every other part of this team, the Texas pitching staff runs deep. If five starters were needed in a playoff series, they could throw out five great ones, but they only need four so Alexi Ogando was put into the bullpen and we all saw what he's capable of last night (97 mph fastballs at the corners). This very interesting rotation boasts three tough lefties and a righty who remade himself after a stint in Japan. The Japanese league guy seems to be the only liability here as Colby Lewis followed up his superb 2010 campaign with an up-and-down season this year (he pitched fine, just gave up way too many homers). Detroit depends on their workhorse Justin Verlander, the easy Cy Young choice this season, but he seems to be losing steam this past month or so. They'll need him to pick it up and possibly pitch 3 times in this series if they hope to win. I predicted Max Scherzer would have a huge year for Detroit before the season, but he didn't. He pitched well with plenty of strikeouts but, like Colby Lewis, he surrendered a bunch of homeruns. I worried about that coming into the playoffs but Scherzer pitched great against the Yankees in two appearances so look for him to be a big part of this series.

Joaquin Benoit basically became a national hero with his heroic relief effort for Detroit against the Yankees to seal their demise in the previous round, and the Tigers do have a nice bullpen. But nothing comes close to this Rangers relief group. As I mentioned, they brought Alexi Ogando out of the pen in Game 1 yesterday and he was nearly untouchable. They also have two of the best relievers in baseball over the last few years, Mike Adams and Koeji Uehara, at their disposal and then flame-throwing Neftali Feliz as the final piece. Even their middle-relief or platoon pitching options are solid. It's gonna be really tough to score against the group late in the game.

I really don't like the Rangers but there's no denying how strong they are as a team. While I will be rooting hard for the underdog Detroit to knock them out, I don't realistically see it happening. My pick: Rangers in six.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 2: NL Central

My predictions for each team continue...
 
(See Part 1 for a description of the format.)


NL Central
Always a tight division, the Cincinnati Reds finally capitalized on all their potential and outlasted the Cardinals last year. Now, the Brewers have retooled and suddenly look like the favorites especially with the Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright and everybody loves the Cubbies. Here's how I see it all playing out.

1. Brewers
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Even

Ever since I visited Milwaukee in the summer of 2008 and had the chance to observe the city and its baseball team, I've had a personal affection for them. Later on in that '08 season the team acquired corpulent ace C.C. Sabathia who led them into the playoffs but, Sabathia would leave for the Yankees after that season and the Brewers have been a major disappointment ever since. Their failures can be blamed entirely on an inability to pitch or, rather, an inability to put adequate pitchers on the mound (aside from ace Yovani Gallardo).

This past offseason the team traded for Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum and now, suddenly, their rotation looks terrific. The way I see it, Gallardo is still the ace. One of my favorite players in the league, Gallardo has continually been underrated by the general baseball community but the guy simply dominates as evidenced by his top-10 finish in strikeouts the last two seasons. And he's only now coming into his age-25 season. I expect him to be terrific again.
Say it with me now: "Yo-vah-nee Guy-yar-do"
With Greinke and Marcum behind the great Yovani, this is a totally different team. The offensive firepower has always been there and this year they've got at least 5 players capable of bashing 25 homers. Prince Fielder is in the final year of his contract so he'll probably be extra motivated after finishing with "only" 32 homeruns last year and a sub-.500 slugging percentage.

The bullpen appears to be their only weakness as John Axford cannot be relied upon to close all season. He performed admirably last year in 50 appearances but throughout his career he's been prone to give up way too many walks. The addition of Takashi Saito helps and 23-year-old lefty Zach Braddock looks legitimately great but otherwise this isn't a great bullpen. It shouldn't matter nearly as much if their combination of high-powered offense and deep starting pitching creates big enough leads for the relievers to work with.

They're a trendy pick this year and I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. I don't think they'll win 90 games but a playoff appearance and possible championship run seems to be a realistic possibility.

2. Reds
PECOTA: 82-80
My take: Over 

Usually, I find it hard to have confidence in any team managed by bumbling Dusty Baker but this a very talented group. For one thing, they've got last year's MVP in the middle of the lineup, Joey Votto, who might be the second-best hitter on the planet behind Albert Pujols. Votto turns just 27 years old this year and should continue to mash although I'd be shocked if he comes close to last season's .357 True Average. The other player to be excited about on this team is another "V" surname, Edinson Volquez. The young right-hander came back from a year off recovering from surgery to post career-high strikeout and ground-ball numbers last season and as he continues to recover from the surgery, he can be reasonably expected to further improve this year. He reminds me of Pedro Martinez on the mound and I'm excited to see what he'll do this year.

Along with Volquez they've got a wealth of young arms in the rotation plus veteran Bronson Arroyo who continues to get by with a funky arsenal of slop. The bullpen has been a strength of theirs for a couple years now and this year they'll have the Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman coming out of the pen. Chapman came up during the summer last year and was throwing harder than any human being in recorded history, frequently touching 103-mph. He should be ready to step in and usurp the closer job from Francisco Cordero at some point this year though Baker the decision maker has been known for disregarding logic. A perfect example of this is the very presence of Chapman in the pen where he'll pitch probably 70 innings max, instead of in the rotation where he could pitch at least twice as much.

The lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom (although, again, Baker is known for batting slappy out-machines in the leadoff spot) with young outfielders Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs providing plenty of pop behind Votto. They've also got one of the best overall defenses in baseball. Look for them to be in the heart of the battle for the division crown but I don't think they'll reach the heights of last year's 91 wins.

3. Cardinals
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Under

To me, this team has underachieved for a while now. They've got by far the best player in baseball and two of the best pitchers yet they didn't reach 90 wins last year and, though they won the World Series back in 2006 (thanks to the Mets faltering in the NLCS) they haven't won more than 91 games these last five years. I place some of the blame on Tony LaRussa who insists on forcing his convoluted strategies into every game to such an extent that he gets in the way of his team's performance.

At any rate, the lineup this year is the usual stars-and-scrubs variety with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the heart of the order surrounded by mediocre hitters. Centerfielder Colby Rasmus looks like the real deal but LaRussa clashed with him last year so much so that Rasmus supposedly wanted to be traded. If he gets the playing time he deserves, Rasmus might blossom into a star but it seems like he has to do it on Tony LaRussa's terms.

Their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright is out for the season and suddenly the starting rotation doesn't look so great. Chris Carpenter is a great pitcher, although he displayed his disturbing douchebaggery to the whole world last season, and sophomore lefty Jaime Garcia is a good bet to post another solid season but behind the two of them there's not much to be excited about. The bullpen has some nice throwers along with a few of the whackiest beards in baseball and it's a given that LaRussa will employ every single reliever on the roster.

But there's seems to be a lot of outside drama hovering over this team. LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan are getting up there in age and LaRussa especially seems to be growing grumpier. Pujols is signed through the end of this year but after that he's a free agent and so there's the lingering possibility of his imminent departure on everyone's mind. With all of the drama and LaRussa's continued descent into senility, this team will finish around .500 at best. It's sad really, because Pujols deserves better.

4. Cubs
PECOTA: 80-82
My take: Even

Everybody's favorite sleeper team this year. A couple weeks ago I was listening to Jonah Keri's podcast when he had Rob Neyer on as a guest. Neyer was asked for a sleeper pick this year and he was given about 5 minutes to ponder it. While listening, I considered each of the divisions in my mind and realized by a process of elimination that he'd say the Cubs. In my head I was saying "Cubs...Cubs...Cubs" and Neyer finally responded saying "I think the Cubs will surprise people." Jay Jaffe just wrote a piece at Baseball Prospectus analyzing his own intuitive choice of the Cubbies as a sleeper, coming away a bit disappointed after researching their roster this year.

They will definitely be better than last year's 75-87 performance that had them finish a game behind the lowly Astros. The strength of the team is an all-around solid starting rotation that doesn't really have an ace but Ryan Dempster, Crazy Carlos Zambrano, and Matt Garza are all pretty damn good. Randy Wells is a perfect #4 starter, and I mean that as a compliment. Andrew Cashner, a big 24-year-old right-hander will be the 5th starter and, if he can harness his control, he could be something special as he's got great stuff.

Everyone, including me, is excited about young shortstop Starlin Castro and he's a nice player (with a great name) but at age 21 he's still learning how to hit in the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if opposing pitchers have figured him out and he struggles this year. Then again, it also wouldn't be a big shock if he bursts forth with a .330/.380/.440 type season and keeps the Cubs playing exciting, contending baseball all year. He'll be batting in the leadoff spot so what he does will certainly go a long way towards determining the team's offensive output.

Bringing in Carlos Pena to play first after he produced a sub-.200 stinker last year was actually a good move. The 2009 homerun leader should benefit both from playing in dinger-friendly Wrigley Field and getting out of baseball's toughest division, the AL East. If Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy and if Marlon Byrd shows a little more power, this has the makings of a nice lineup but those are pretty big IFs. Byrd and Ramirez are both on the wrong side of 30, they'll be 33 this year just like the team's mildly productive left fielder Alfonso Soriano.

The team's best hitter is probably catcher Geovany Soto but they usually keep him down in the bottom of the batting order for some ridiculous reason. I guess it's because he's a catcher? I don't know. I'm stumped. New manager Mike Quade might be a distant relative of mine (years ago my grandfather briefly changed his name from Quadrino to Quade to bypass prejudice against Italians) and the team played well for him last year but keeping poor OBP hitters like Castro and Byrd at the top of the lineup is not a good way to get the most out of this offense. And, aside from closer Carlos Marmol who is a specimen unlike any in baseball history (his frisbee slider is practically uncontrollable leading to lots of walks but historically awesome strikeout rates) the group of relievers Quade has at his disposal looks a bit shaky.

I think they'll be a more exciting team to watch this year but the end result will be a bit short of .500.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 71-91
My take: Under

They've finished at the bottom of the division five out of the last six seasons and last year was one of their worst years ever. Rock bottom has been struck. Things should really start to change this year as they've established a pretty solid core of young hitters. Andrew McCutchen (24), Pedro Alvarez (24), Jose Tabata (22), and Neil Walker (25) can all hit. Alvarez especially is someone to be excited about as the 2008 #2 overall draft pick displayed some serious power last year with 16 homeruns and 21 doubles in barely half a season. He's a good bet to knock 30 or maybe even 40 homeruns this year.

The huge problem with this team is its rotation. They've got nobody. Well, James McDonald has some potential but besides him, they've got nobody. The organization has two young prospects in Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie who are studs and could be great major league pitchers some day but that's at least a couple years from now. This current pitching staff will undoubtedly struggle.

New manager Clint Hurdle should be able to rile this group up though and I think they'll be much improved from last year's 105-loss stinker. But the ceiling for this group looks to be about 70 wins.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 68-94
My take: waaaaay Under

Along with the Mariners and Royals, this is the worst team in baseball. A college team could outscore this lineup. Their best hitter is Hunter Pence and he neither gets on base enough (.325 OBP last year) nor hits with enough power (.461 slugging) to even be a league-average hitter for his position. Carlos Lee, the team's highest-paid player, absolutely fell off a cliff last season batting .246/.291/.417 and making almost $20 million for it. Formerly known as "El Caballo" (Spanish for "The Horse") the 34-year-old tubby outfielder better fits a description made famous by one of Salvador Dali's essays: "The Rotten Donkey."


The pitching rotation does carry some major-league caliber players and might win them a few games this year. Wandy Rodriguez is a tough little lefty (listed at 5'11" though probably more like 5'9") and Brett Myers, while a terrible person, isn't a terrible pitcher. Bud Norris can rack up some strikeouts (9.3 per 9 innings last year) but he walks too many batters and is prone to giving up homeruns. J.A. Happ is hapless, Nelson Figueroa needs to figure out how to pitch. I'm just being silly now. This team literally boggles the mind. It amazes me that an organization would trot out a group like this and expect customers to pay large amounts of money to see them play baseball. I'd be surprised if the team reaches 60 wins this year.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Warmups: Stadium Stories

Baseball season is on its way. Opening Day is a week from tomorrow and, before I start posting my previews for each division, I'd like to first get a little warmed up for baseball writing with a few posts on various things related to baseball. First up is an inventory of all the major league ballparks I've ever been to.

Doubtless, there are better places to spend summer days, summer nights, than in ballparks. Doubtless.
Nevertheless, decades after a person has stopped collecting bubble-gum cards, he can still discover himself collecting ballparks. And not just the stadiums, but their surrounding neighborhoods, their smells, their special seasons and moods.--Thomas Boswell, How Life Imitates the World Series
1. Yankee Stadium
It was here that I attended my first baseball game ever on July 21, 1995. My brother John brought me to a game as a birthday present (it was a few days after my 10th birthday) and the annual outing to Yankee Stadium would become a birthday staple over the next few years until I defiantly renounced my Yankee fanhood right around the same time everybody started jumping on the bandwagon. My favorite player growing up was Jim Leyrtiz, the bat-spinning back-up catcher and first baseman (who was obscure in those days but went on to become a World Series hero). Each year, John would choose the perfect game to attend, somehow always knowing which games Leyritz would be starting. That first game in '95 Leyritz actually started at first base against the Texas Rangers' lefty Kenny Rogers (Leyritz was replaced by Don Mattingly later in the game). The Yanks won 8-3 and the winning pitcher was Dave Eiland who went on to become the Yankees' pitching coach for these last three years.

I saw a bunch of games here over the years with various people: John and I went to Game 1 of the World Series in 1996 when the Yanks got shellacked by the Braves (though I got to see Jim Leyritz catch the whole game); during the summer of my first job in 1999, working as a messenger for the company both my mom and John worked for in lower Manhattan, a co-worker named Lou decided one day that we should skip work and go watch an afternoon Yanks-Blue Jays game from the bleachers; Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe brought me along to an ALDS game against the Tigers in 2006; and I got to say my last goodbyes in an early season game against the Rays in 2008, right before moving to San Diego (that was the Yankees' last season in the old stadium).

2. Veterans Stadium
My Aunt Jeanie brought my brother Billy and I to a game here in '95 or '96. It was Billy's first game ever and it was the Phillies against the San Diego Padres, an interesting augur because ten years later Billy would take up residence across the country in San Diego (which led to me moving out there too). That night, Billy caught a foul ball in his hat (!) that was lined off the bat of Pads' outfielder Melvin Nieves. I remember the stadium was enormous and imposing.

3. Shea Stadium
Shea Stadium in 2003
Although I can't recall my very first visit to this lovable old dump, it was here that I would watch more games than anyplace else over the years. After the Yankees started throwing money around (and dumping players like my old fave Jim Leyritz who went on to lead the Padres to the World Series) I grew sick of them and jumped on the bandwagon of my father's team: the Mets. This was during the years of Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura so it was a fun team to follow. I've been a diehard Mets fan ever since and I get maudlin and misty-eyed thinking about this place because, even though the building was a dump, I had so many great memories here. A few that stick out in my mind are these:
  • A Saturday night interleague game against the Angels (John's favorite team) in which the Mets rallied twice in the late innings and won. Marlon Anderson tied the game in the bottom of the ninth with an inside-the-park homerun (!) against current Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. After surrendering a run in the top of the 10th, the Mets put two guys on base with their best hitters, Carlos Beltran and Piazza, coming up. They both struck out. It was all up to Cliff Floyd. He worked a full count, fouled off about a hundred pitches, then struck a monster homerun to win the game. Floyd was hurt so much in his career and is retired now but he provided a bunch of great evenings for Mets fans during a two year stretch. This was probably the most exciting game I've ever witnessed in person. I was sitting with John and his wife Kristina in one of my favorite spots in Shea: near the foul pole in fair territory out in left field.
  • A Friday night game against the Phillies that was rain-delayed for about 3 or 4 hours before getting under way. I was at the game with John, Kristina, and my little sister Emily. John and Kristina left early because it was late, wet, and freezing. Me and Em stayed til the bitter end and got to see Carlos Beltran launch a walk-off bomb which had us jumping up and down and screaming with our cheap ponchos on.
  • Witnessed the last two games in Montreal Expos history as they played two meaningless matches against the Mets on the last weekend of the season at Shea. The Mets and Expos both stunk that year and I lucked into having tickets to both of the last two games fall into my lap. For the final game, I remember Todd Zeile started at catcher for the Mets in his own last game before retirement. I watched that last game with three of my siblings on a crisp, sunny October afternoon as the Mets won 8-1 and the Montreal squad tossed a bunch of memorabilia to a group of devoted fans gathered above their dugout.
4. Stade Olympique
When it first looked like the Montreal Expos were going to be no more (the league was seriously talking about cutting two teams, they'd eventually settle for moving the Expos to Washington), my brother John, ever ambitious to go on a baseball trip (a trait he instilled in me, thankfully) drove us up to Montreal for a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Expos were a pretty good team in those days and we saw two entertaining games in that funky old stadium including a Sunday afternoon battle won on a walk-off smite by the 'Spos.

5. Toronto's SkyDome *
I'll use a * to indicate the stadiums I visited without getting to see a game there. My old Staten Island pal Joe and his mom brought me up to Toronto and Niagra Falls one year and we stayed in the hotel inside of the Blue Jays' home stadium. It was the offseason, though, so nothing was going on but we did sleep within the stadium and could see everything just outside our window.

6. Turner Field
Went to a game here while visiting my sister Laurie in Atlanta years back. I don't remember much about the game except that we sat in dead center, right next to the Braves bullpen (which has three mounds) and a few relievers, Paul Byrd chiefly among them, threw unopened sunflower seed packs to me and Billy after the game.

7. PNC Park
Another weekend baseball roadtrip with brother John. It was a beautiful, scenic drive through Pennsylvania and the stadium is one of the nicest I've ever seen, situated right at the intersection of Pittsburgh's three rivers. The Pirates played the Dodgers in a couple of forgettable games but the beauty of the stadium and the city sticks out in my mind the most. After the first game there was a fireworks show that was surreal---it incorporated not only the three yellow bridges beyond the outfield wall, but even the skyscrapers across the river. Best fireworks show I've ever seen.

8. Citizens Bank Park
When it first opened I took the train one day by myself (I was 18) and watched a game between the Phils and Tigers. The Tigers were atrocious in those days and the Phillies killed them. Over the years, I went to a handful of games here with my brother James and his three sons. In a homerun derby type of game against the Brewers, the guy sitting directly next to us caught a homerun on a line-drive (and we were in the second deck).


9. U.S. Cellular Field (aka new Comiskey Park)
When my brother Billy finished Navy bootcamp in June 2006, my whole family went over to Chicago for the graduation ceremony. After seeing him for a very short time, we had the whole night to ourselves in Chicago. Of course, I wanted to go see a baseball game and the Dodgers were in town for an interleague game with the Sox. Unfortunately, nobody in my family would join me but I took up my dad's offer to drop me off in the South Side and went to the game by myself. It was a lovely June evening and they were commemorating the 1959 World Series between the Sox and Dodgers. The Pale Hose won behind a great game from Mark Buehrle and I somehow ended up with a White Sox towel and then a White Sox credit card which I used for a few years.


10. Wrigley Field *
The next day after the White Sox game, my dad and I went to Wrigley and took a guided tour of the whole stadium. Great experience and, interestingly enough, the Cubbies were in New York playing the Yankees at the time. When I passed through Chicago on my way to California in the summer of '08, my brother Billy and I walked a lap or two around the outside of the stadium while the Cubbies were playing in...San Diego.

11. Petco Park
Oh Petco, how I love thee. After my first visit in 2006 (a memorably explosive game against the Braves) for my 21st birthday, I saw probably 25 games there over the next four years. I absolutely love this place and have so many good memories from there. Thankfully, many of them are preserved on this very blog but I really, really miss going to games there and hopefully will be back in San Diego one day. When I first moved there I got to live my dream: I was living in a rinky-dink studio apartment only two miles from the stadium so, on more than one occasion, I walked from my house to a baseball game. I could go on forever about this place but I'll stop now.

12. Fenway Park
First, did a stadium tour in the summer of 2007 while in Boston for my cousin Mary's wedding. Then, less than a year later, spent a weekend with Mary and her husband and they took me to a game. We sat out in the bleachers and watched the Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers trade bombs all day. The Sox won 11-7. I've been itching to get back there ever since.

13. Miller Park
During the 2008 cross-country road trip, one of the main stops was in Milwaukee so we could see a baseball game. They played the Arizona Diamondbacks with the roof closed (it was raining outside) and smoked 'em. After the game, Billy and I got to walk along the field because it was Senior Citizens Day and the elderly couple seated next to us said "come with us, you can pretend we're your parents." The people of Milwaukee are great.

14. AT&T Park
Another blurry photo from my clunky old camera.
In August of 2008 I visited San Francisco to look at a grad school I planned to attend, the California Institute of Integral Studies. The school was nice although far too expensive for me but I did get to go see a game while up there. It was an absolutely frigid, cloudy night in August and the Giants played the Braves in a meaningless game when both teams were out of the race. Yet, the stadium was packed and rowdy. This was a rare instance where I didn't stay for the entire game because I was just too cold, didn't prepare for winter weather in August.


15. Citi Field *
Got to do a full tour of the stadium, including dugout and clubhouses while the teams were present. Even spoke to Howard Johnson while he was on an elliptical machine. Did it all while posing as an electrician, hard hat and everything. Amazing and memorable experience, though I won't reveal how I ended up having the opportunity. Don't want to get anyone in trouble.


16. Angel Stadium
Fun, rowdy place. Went there this past summer with my girlfriend for my 25th birthday. Fun time though it was sweltering until the sun finally went down. We sat in the absolute last row of the stadium along the first base line and yet the view of the field was actually pretty good. Our view of the mountain range beyond the stadium was even better.

17. Dodger Stadium
An absolutely gorgeous stadium that seems like it was plopped down in the middle of a dense verdant forest. Went with bro Billy for a September matchup between the classic old New York rivals, the Giants and Dodgers. Sat very close to the field but was annoyed most of the people around us didn't seem to care that much about the game. When the game was over we got to walk right onto the outfield grass and watch a fireworks show, though.

Now that I've listed everything, I realize that during my three years living in California I went to every major league baseball stadium in the state except the Coliseum in Oakland. It's known as one of the worst facilities in professional sports but still, the A's are one of my favorite teams. All the more reason to go back there.

I'm currently situated in the middle of Texas, at least three hours from a pro baseball team but, as a diehard seamhead, I will definitely be taking the long drive to both Houston and Arlington to add those to my list.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

A Memorialable Baseball Day

What a friggin' day of Baseball. As summer's solstice approaches, the advancing 2010 baseball season reached its apex again today. All sorts of colorful varieties of the summer game were displayed radiantly today, the first day of a three-day weekend. When the sun went down, an orange-tinted waning full moon oversaw our game's second perfect pitching outing of the year already.

A brief overview:
-Roy Halladay threw a perfect game tonight against the Marlins in Miami. It's already the 2nd perfect game pitched in the major leagues this season and third in the last two years although it's only the 20th ever, including two that happened in the 1800s. Joe Posnanski perfectly captured the uniqueness of what we've been witnessed.

-The Mets and Brewers played an action-filled ballgame wearing Negro League throwback uniforms. The Mets were the New York Cubans from the 1930s and the Brewers were the Milwaukee Bears circa 1923. In stark contrast to Halladay's gem, both starting pitchers in this game were knocked out before the 4th inning as there was plenty of offense, 14 runs in all including two homers from Corey Hart with the Brewers beating the Mets 8-6. John Axford, sporting a classic handle-bar mustache, closed out the game for the Brewers.

-After seeing their starting pitcher take an A-Rod missile of a line drive off the side of his head (it hit his skull so hard that it bounced almost 300 feet away), the Cleveland Indians stormed back at Yankee Stadium to beat the Bronx Bombers 13-11 sending their fans home disappointed and unhappy.

-Gabe Gross made this ridiculous catch in the Tigers-A's game. Notice how he couldn't stop smiling afterward. This is a kid's game after all.

-After hitting a walk-off grandslam in the bottom of the 10th inning in Anaheim, Kendry Morales jumped on home plate so hard he broke his leg.

-In the only game that my TV let me watch, the Cubs' Carlos Silva, who was literally dumped on the Cubs after embarrassing himself for two years as a horrible waste of money in Seattle, baffled the Cardinals offense with 11 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings. He's now 7-0 on the year. Salvation thy name is Carlos Silva.

And plenty of other fun stuff happened.

The Stanley Cup Finals also began today with a hard-hitting and exciting 6-5 game won by the Chicago Blackhawks. And the Lakers are going to the NBA Finals again to play the Celtics (again). It is a damn good time to be a sports fan.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

A Collage of Thoughts on the Milwaukee Brewers

On the morning of June 3rd, 2008, my brother Billy and I drove away from our house in Staten Island headed towards Chicago. My car, a 2003 blue Buick Rendezvous, contained as many of my belongings as I could squeeze into it plus suitcases, sleeping bags, a tent, and a huge box of snacks for our planned 10-day roadtrip across America that would end at her southwestern edge in San Diego.

Almost exactly 12 hours later, we were in Chicago driving on the highway past US Cellular field where we could see the stadium's lights on as a game between the White Sox and Royals was about to begin. "Real quick: should we go?" I asked. He hesitated for a minute. "Yes." I missed the exit and we kept on going. We skipped the game because, upon further consideration, we needed to eat dinner and get settled with a place to stay for the night and a three hour baseball game would leave us tired, hungry, and scrambling for a hotel at 10 PM in an unfamiliar city. We already had plans to fulfill our foreign city baseball fix the next day in Milwaukee. After dinner at a restaurant only a block or two away from Wrigley Field (which was quiet while the Cubs were getting ready to play over in, you guessed it, San Diego) we settled into a cheap, dirty hotel just north of Chicago and flipped between the Cubs-Padres game and the movie "Money Train" on television while we went to sleep.

The next morning we were back on the road heading up Interstate-94 through rain and thick fog to Milwaukee. We arrived at the stadium very early and cruised around the premises a bit, admiring the beautiful building from the outside. After a quick breakfast at Perkins a mile away, we were settled into our seats just 10 or 12 rows behind home plate. They'd cost us only $40 a piece and we sat between two elderly couples for a Wednesday afternoon tilt between the hometown Brew Crew and the Arizona Diamondbacks. When we had sat down the old woman to my right had her chubby arm completely in my seat space and she made no effort to remove it once I was there. As the Brewers took their warm-up tosses I considered the prospect of having to spend the entire game leaning to my left so as not to be touching this woman's arm that was invading my $40 seat. I battled within myself. She's an old lady and she's a bit too wide for her seat, give her a break. No! I paid 40 bucks for this seat, I should be entitled to enjoy it and not concede part of it to this inconsiderate bleep! Am I gonna say something... What do I say? Dammit, this is the first day of my true adulthood and being out on my own, am I gonna remain timid and quiet when people are taking advantage of me? No! "Excuse me, can you keep your arm in your space please? Thanks." She looked at me wide-eyed, shocked that I was daring enough to call her out for her injustice, then quickly reeled her arm in. And chuckled. I'd passed my first test.

*   *   *
Looking back, the Brewers had seeped their way into my life over the last couple years before I journeyed to their foggy city and spaceship-like stadium. In May of 2006 I joined my brother James and his family for a Saturday afternoon game in Philadelphia against the Brewers. It was a highly entertaining game with lots of offense including a Bill Hall missile of a homerun caught by the guy sitting right next to us in the left field grand stand. Almost exactly two years later I was in Boston for the weekend visiting my cousin Mary and her husband Chris and they brought me to my first ever Red Sox game at Fenway Park, a Sunday afternoon interleague contest against the Brewers. That was also a highly entertaining offensive show featuring 8 homeruns (two apiece by Ryan Braun and David Ortiz), won by the Sox 11-7.

*   *   *
Current Milwaukee manager Ken Macha (right) looks exactly like my dad. In his first season at the helm last year the Brewers finished with a disappointing 80-82 record, third place in the National League Central. They were favored by many to be a contender for the division title and they were in first place as late as July but they sunk because of an atrocious pitching staff (5.05 runs allowed per game, second worst in the NL) and ended up 11 games out of first. Former Oakland A's and Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson was hired by the Brewers before the current season to work his magic on an unsuccessful group of moundsmen.

When Peterson was with the Mets, I remember reading an article about the peculiar mullet-haired pitching coach and how he came to be one of the most sought after pitching gurus in baseball. His dad, Pete Peterson (quite a name) worked in the Pirates front office when Rick was a kid and he got to spend alot of time around the "We Are Family" Pirates growing up. He went to college in Jacksonville and got degrees in psychology and art before spending some time floundering as a pitcher in the low minor leagues. I can't locate the article now or anything that mentions this but I remember it described how he went away to southern California (San Diego, if I remember right) and lived in a tiny studio apartment, studied Zen, practiced yoga and Tai Chi, and didn't work much. That sounded like what I wanted to do with my life and that article played a major role in my decision to leave New York and move to San Diego with no job, no apartment, no plans. Of course, Mr. Peterson went on to become a major league pitching coach and he's noted for using a mix of psychological techniques and Eastern philosophy to lead his hurlers through the long baseball season.
"A full season is like crossing an ocean," Peterson says. "It's every day the same guys, same uniforms, same colors, and it's easy to get lost and lose your perspective before you reach the other shore seven months later. Helping people understand where they are along the way and what their recipe for success is, and being there to get them back on track when it slips away is my job."
*   *   *
With the full use of both armrests on my $40 seat, I relaxed and soaked in the encapsulated environment we were in, huge glass windows behind centerfield showed it was raining heavily outside. My second indoor baseball game experience (previously saw 2 games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal back in 2002) felt like a festive event, the crowd was very happy and very loud as their team put up 10 runs on the way to a 10-1 easy victory over the D'backs. In the 4th inning, Corey Hart hit an inside-the-park three-run homerun and I high-fived my brother and people in front of me amidst the euphoric excitement.

After the game was over, the elderly couple that was sitting next to Billy explained that today was "Senior's Day" at the ballpark and all seniors were granted a postgame stroll around the field. My love for Milwaukee was solidified when that couple, unprovoked, suggested to Billy that we follow them onto the field pretending that we were their sons. Thus we were granted access to the beautiful green pasture. We slowly strolled around the perimeter, walking along the warning track in the outfield and trying to soak it all in. "I can't believe we're in Milwaukee!" one of us said. My brother took of his sweatshirt to reveal a blue Shea Stadium tee shirt and we snapped a picture at the centerfield wall's 400-foot marker capturing how far we were from home:
*   *   *
I've already written the story of the first Padres game I ever attended, a 15-12 loss to the Braves in July 2006. That night, with a 9-8 lead in the 9th inning, Petco Park seemed to briefly transform into a WWF wrestling arena and I wasn't sure if The Undertaker or Trevor Hoffman was entering the game. Loud, somber bells tolled and heavy rock-and-roll accompanied the arrival into the game of Hoffman, the San Diego Padres legend and holder of the all-time saves record. One out away from winning, he blew the game and the Braves took the lead. It was his second blown save of the year. He would finish the season with 5 blown saves but he also led the league with 46 successful saves and pitched so well that he finished second in the Cy Young award voting.

*   *   *
After the Brewers game we spent the whole day seeing Milwaukee and then had a brief scare as a we got lost in the heavy evening fog off Lake Michigan and drove around the city for hours (our guiding light, a Garmin navigation system, was left at the hotel) trying to find our hotel before a couple of bearded college fellows we encountered tossing around a football in the street gave us directions. The next day we were to pack up again and head west through Wisconsin and Minnesota into South Dakota for the next leg of our trip.

We woke up in the middle of the night to extremely loud thunder, frequent lightning and heavy rain at our window. The Weather Channel was in full emergency mode, explaining that there were heavy winds, lightning storms and tornadoes all over Wisconsin. The map they displayed had little computer-generated twisters all across our proposed path westward. We briefly argued whether or not to go ahead and drive west as planned but the pleas of the weather man---"STAY OFF THE ROADS"---won out. The storms cleared by the afternoon and we spent the day strolling the sidewalks, going to museums, sports bars, city parks. At one point we walked over a bridge underneath which a flowing river purled and pulled along big logs and forest debris.

*   *   *
The cost-cutting Padres chose to let their 39-year-old franchise statue (on the team since 1993) Hoffman walk away after the 2008 season and he signed a one year contract to serve as the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. With a high salary, declining effectiveness, and a maturing protege (Heath Bell) ready to inherit his job, the Padres' decision-makers determined that Hoffman was expendable. It was as though they were suggesting that he retire because few thought he would go on and continue his career somewhere else after being with the same team for 16 seasons. It felt like the Brewers had adopted another family's grandpa. He was a relic and he was leaving one of the coziest pitcher's parks in baseball. After putting together a surprisingly strong season finishing games for them though (by ERA+ it was his second best season ever), he was signed for another season.

So far in 2010 he has been absolutely terrible, blowing 5 saves already in just 10 save attempts. This past Tuesday afternoon in Cincinnati he appeared to hit rock bottom. Entering the game in the bottom of the 9th with a two run lead, this is how the Reds handled his offerings:
  • single
  • homerun (tying the game)
  • double
  • walk
  • (hard-struck) single to win the game
He recorded no outs and didn't appear to fool anyone with his pitches.

As a whole, the Brewer pitching staff is off to a dreadful start. They've allowed the third most runs per game, 5.86 to be exact, ahead of only the Pirates and Diamondbacks. The starters aren't pitching deep into games and the bullpen hasn't performed when called upon, not just Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins has also faltered in high-pressure situations. They don't look anything like contenders at this point despite an explosive offense.

Can Rick Peterson right the ship? It's been reported that he has worked extensively with Hoffman recently to sharpen his pitching mechanics, explaining that Hoffman's "arm slot has gotten too high in his delivery, and that has contributed to a loss of movement on both his famed changeup and fastball." Even though he's 42 years old, I can't imagine the future Hall of Famer would lose his touch so suddenly after a what was really an excellent season at age 41. Fangraphs calculates how much each pitch has been worth in terms of runs and last year Hoffman's fastball and changeup were better than they've ever been in the years Fangraphs has kept tabs on it (since 2002). His velocity is the same and while he doesn't throw hard at all he was baffling hitters with the same stuff last year. I foresee Peterson's tune-up working for the beleaguered closer, although I hope the Brewers are patient enough to give him another chance. As desperate as they are right now for pitching help, they'd be insane not to. Their makeshift replacement so far has been Carlos Villanueva, a curveball-twirling righty swingman. This afternoon, in his second save attempt, he relinquished what was a hard-earned one-run lead (his team rallied for 5 runs in the 9th) against the Twins. The bullpen managed to stave off defeat for a little while longer but eventually lost when Joe Mauer scored on a sacrifice fly in the 12th inning. The Brewers have now lost 9 of their last 10 games.

The starting rotation is a complete mess. Its two prize additions, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis both have ERAs over 5. So does Dave Bush and so does Chris Narveson. The only bright spot is Yovani Gallardo but he hasn't even averaged 6 innings per game in his starts before putting it into the hands of a shaky bullpen. It's on Rick Peterson's shoulders to uplift the minds and spirits of his charges using his psychological, Eastern philosophical approach. For some silly reason, I have faith in him. I'm rooting for these guys to climb back to life.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 2: NL Central


Continuing our look at each division and how things will stack up...


NL Central
Baseball's only six-team division is also perhaps its weakest. Many consider the Cardinals the easiest bet in baseball to the win their division and I do think they'll come out on top but the Brewers have improved their horrid run prevention from last season and should be a worthy foe.

1. Cardinals
PECOTA: 87-75
My take: Over
Their frontline talent is as good as any team in the game. Baseball Zeus aka Albert Pujols is a lock to be one of the best hitters in baseball, Matt Holliday is a worthy complement, and the Carpenter/Wainwright pitching duo is superb. But have they assembled a good enough team around those guys? I really like Colby Rasmus and believe he will become a major contributor this year both at the plate and in the field. There's also Ryan Ludwick (22 HRs last year) and Yadier Molina who has developed into a pretty damn good hitter. It'll be fun to see if pitching coach Dave Duncan's voodoo on older pitchers can work for Brad Penny and, if it does (and Carpenter/Wainwright can stay healthy--not a given), I think it will all be enough to win a pretty weak division. The Brewers ought to be biting at their heels and I fear Cards' closer Ryan Franklin might turn into a pumpkin this year but Tony LaRussa will figure out how to get this team across the finish line ahead. 89 wins sounds about right.


2. Brewers
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over
Having Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez out there on defense will make a major difference for a team whose pitching staff was terrible last year. I also like the addition of Randy Wolf who should provide a stable presence in a rotation that would otherwise rely on one pitcher. That one pitcher, Yovani Gallardo is an immense talent, though. With the new defense and the wisdom of Wolf (plus Doug Davis who slots in as a worthy #3 starter), this looks like a totally different team as far as run prevention and, with their lineup of mashers, they have a shot to lead the NL in run scored. It's a nice mix and I'll be rooting for them to topple the Cards but it will be a very close race.

3. Cubs
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Over
This is a .500 team. I'm saying Over on PECOTA's forecast but not by much. They've got a nice pitching staff but the offense has already reached its heights. They're lineup is relying on older players who can't be counted on to match their past performances...and that's IF they can even stay healthy enough to play! But, I'm sympathetic towards the Cubbies. I don't know why, maybe it's their cute ballpark, but I like to see them do well. With optimism, one can envision their offensive core which carried them to two straight division titles (leading the NL in runs in '08) giving it's one last gush of life this year to support a deep rotation but, even if that does happen, I see them falling short of the Cards and Brew Crew with a record right around their 83-win finish from last year.

4. Reds
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Even
Always an intriguing team because of their young players, it is expected (once again) that maybe they just might put it together this season and be a contender. I'm with PECOTA which sees them as having a nice pitching staff in 2010 but not quite enough in the run-scoring department. You can see the potential for contendership, though: if Jay Bruce finally puts it all together and lives up to his former #1 prospect status, if Scott Rolen stays healthy and performs like he's expected to, if Drew Stubbs is the strong leadoff hitter many think he is, they'll score plenty of runs (assuming Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips continue to mash) and the pitching will be there to back it up. I think they'll be a fun team to watch and follow, they should stay in the mix of the things for a bit but they'll finish a few steps behind the Cubs and Brewers in the race for the division crown. Not quite the breakout team many hope for, but still it's a step in the right direction.

5. Pirates
PECOTA: 70-92
My take: Over
The dark clouds above PNC Park (one of the nicest ballparks I've ever been to) are finally, ever so slowly starting to fade. The youth movement is on in full force with Andrew McCutchen leading a band of ditched ex-prospects aiming for respect. I'm interested to see what firstbaseman Jeff Clement can do now that he's finally getting a chance after being trapped in Triple-A dungeon by the Mariners for so long. McCutchen and Lastings Milledge have the makings of a special duo and there's plenty of other intrigue in their lineup but the starting rotation doesn't look very good at all. It will be interesting to see what they can do this season with so many players who should be motivated to prove they belong (Andy LaRoche, I'm looking at you) and they should have a nice bullpen, but 75 wins will be a huge year for them. I think they'll get there.

6. Astros
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Under
Once a perennial contender, they've turned into a sideshow (with a perfect bells-and-whistles mallpark as its setting) as the men running the team have refused to let their old hopes die. Instead of blowing things up, destroying and rebuilding, they've continued to add mediocre veterans and are looking more and more like the National League's version of the Royals. Now their major league team sucks and their farm system is the worst in baseball. Their answer was to add bullpen mediocrities Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom (5.89 ERA last year) to pitch the late innings and former wife-boxer Brett Myers to fill out the rotation.

The outfield is respectable, Michael Bourn (.354 OBP and 61 steals) has turned into a nice little player, Carlos Lee will bop a few homers, and Hunter Pence can play. Lance Berkman is still a great hitter when he's healthy but everybody else in the lineup kind of sucks and in the rotation it's pretty much the same story. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez are pretty good but the rest...not so much. They're burrowing down to the bottom of a weak division and will unseat the Pirates for 6th place this season.