2013 MLB Season Preview Part 4: NL West

NL West

1. Giants
PECOTA: 85 wins
My pick: Over

Two World Series victories in three years and their core is both intact and only now starting to reach their prime. As good as the Dodgers look on paper, I'll still take this group over them.

The decline of Tim Lincecum is disheartening but the rotation still features two top notch aces in Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. The Giants were lucky enough to make it through the whole year without any injuries to their starting pitchers, only 2 games were started by someone outside of their regular 5-man rotation. That's not likely to happen again.

With a strong defense, great starting pitching, versatile bullpen, good tactical manager, and a lineup that was actually one of the best in baseball last year, the Giants are primed for another run into the playoffs. They're the best team in this division, though the competition promises to be tougher than in recent years.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 4: NL West

More baseball talk...


NL West

1. San Francisco Giants
PECOTA: 86 wins
My take: Under

On July 18th last year (my birthday), the Giants were in first place with a better run differential than the Diamondbacks, an admirable follow-up performance thus far in the season that followed their World Series campaign. From that point on they collapsed (though it was overshadowed by the even louder falls of the Braves and Red Sox) and the Diamonbacks took a stranglehold upon first place that they would not relinquish.

The Giants' third ace, Madison Bumgarner

They boast one of the best pitching staffs in a league that is seemingly loaded with great pitching staffs. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner form a devastating trio. While Lincecum & Cain have been doing this for years, Bumgarner came in and had a 2.64 FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching ERA) in over 200 innings at the age of 21 last year. He's good.

The pitching will be great again but the question with this team remains whether or not they'll get enough offense to win. Pablo Sandoval is one of the most exhilarating hitters in the game but he hasn't had much help over the years. With Buster Posey and Brandon Belt in the lineup all year long, though, this team should pick up the division crown in what promises to be a close race.

Satisfying Baseball Fix With Classic Clips

As the baseball season slowly approaches I find myself hungry for actual game footage. The Spring Training highlights are boring so I've found other resources.

The men in charge of Major League Baseball's media department have been notoriously strict about letting any game footage (whether from the past or present) appear on YouTube or anywhere else not owned by them. This is not only a major pain in the ass for devout fans of the game but it's also a huge missed opportunity to promote their product. There are nearly 100 years worth of World Series footage and an unthinkable mass of regular season video material in their vaults and yet nobody ever sees any of it.

Thankfully, YouTube does have a surprising amount of old World Series films. You can see clips of the 1937 Fall Classic between the Yankees and New York Giants; regular TV footage of the 1961 Series with at-bats by Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle, and Yogi Berra; highlights from the '55 World Series when the Brooklyn Dodgers defeated the Yankees; Cardinals legend Bob Gibson defeating the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Game 7 of the 1967 World Series and plenty more similar clips.

(More after the jump...)

Free Manny!

Two of my favorite sports entities have decided to hang it up. Controversial-yet-comical baseball slugger Manny Ramirez abruptly retired this weekend after learning of a failed drug test (his second one) and, rather than sit out with a 100-game suspension, the 39-year-old superstar decided to end his baseball career. At the same time, the basketball writing collective known as FreeDarko made their final blog post today and have decided to disperse as well.

I arrived very late to the Free Darko party, only hearing about them 6 or 7 months ago when I picked up their first book, The Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac. I quickly devoured that book (read my review here) and joined the chorus of ardent admirers of these basketball philoso-aestheticians. I'm still in the midst of reading their second book, The Undisputed Guide to Pro Basketball History, but I can say that I've frequently found myself bestowing laudatory praise upon it, describing it as literally one of my favorite books ever. Everything about that book is wonderful.

Their two incredible books sprung from the writing on their blog freedarko.com and the huge following they attained. As the main components of the FreeDarko collective (the writer known as Bethlehem Shoals and the artist Jacob Weinstein) have now decided to go on to other pursuits, the website and the legendary title associated with it have now called it quits. It's terrible news, especially since I only just recently started checking their work, and it will surely affect my appreciation for the NBA. If you're at all curious what they were all about, you should read their huge final post in which everyone who's ever written for the site describes what FreeDarko meant to them.

*   *   *

I wish the FreeDarko guys would have drawn up an image of Manny Ramirez. In my sports-watching life, I've never seen anyone like him. He would step up to the plate wearing the baggiest uniform you've ever seen, his beard all scraggly with a huge wad of gum or tobacco in his cheek, his enormous sleeves covering most of his muscular arms, and an unbelievably long hairdo of dreadlocks upon which his batting helmet barely fit. He was a mess. And yet when he swung a baseball bat, all those loose, scraggly items were seemingly shed in a supernova display of pure symmetrical, mechanical brilliance. The man was born to hit a baseball and for his entire career, he did it about as well as anyone ever has.

But he certainly wasn't born to be a public figure. He was childish, pouty, lazy, and not very articulate. As great a player as he was, he is viciously hated upon by a good number of sportswriters and he's an extremely polarizing figure among baseball fans.

He never played for any of my favorite teams, but I always considered him one of my favorite players because it was such a joy to watch him play. He started out as a showy masher of baseballs, frequently hitting loud homeruns and remaining in the batter's box to admire them. With the powerhouse Cleveland Indians of the 90s he went to the World Series and led the league in slugging a couple times before signing with the Red Sox. He became one of the most popular players in baseball with the Sox and eventually led them to their first World Series title in 86 years with a second title coming three years later.

In his last few years with the Sox his hair grew longer and longer into tweedy dreads and his threads got increasingly baggy. His cap and his helmet always popped of his head when he ran for a flyball or rounded the bases and he dragged around his shaggy clothes like a kid in a ghost costume. Baseball purists hated him.

I see the Manny experience as a wonderfully colorful and quirky episode in the game's storied history of characters. When he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers he exploded upon the National League (hitting .396 over the final two months of the season) and elevated his star status even higher while carrying the team to two consecutive NLCS matchups with the Phillies. It became a national news story when the team asked him to cut his hair which was getting out of control.

Everything about him looked sloppy, baggy, disheveled, except for his perfect swing which would often lead to a crisp "thwack!" and a lifted line drive. That's what I've always found so intriguing about him. No matter how dumb he seemed, no matter how crazy his hairdo, or how loose-fitting his uniform, the man could always crush a baseball with the utmost powerful precision (an achievement not nearly as brutish as it sounds---in fact, it's probably the most difficult thing to do in all of sports). And he knew it.

Although there are actually two other big hitters with the same last name (Aramis and Hanley Ramirez, all three of them unrelated) and the same penchant for admiring their homeruns, I've never seen anybody make such a comical show of himself at the plate after a homer as Manny. The one that sticks out in my mind is a game-winning smash against the Angels in the ALCS when he simply stood in the batter's box with his arms straight up in celebration before finally jogging slowly around the bases while chaos ensued in the stands.


I was really looking forward to watching how things would unfold with him playing in the AL East again, battling his old foes (and friends) as the Tampa Bay Rays' designated hitter but he has suddenly departed. We'll never get to see Manny hit a baseball again because he somehow managed to fail a drug test for the second time in three years. At the very least, his departure is perfectly Manny. Controversial, puzzling, stupid, and shocking. Sticking it to the man without any regard for how badly it hurts his fans. Only this time, we won't be able to forget about it all while watching his pretty swing.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 1: NL West

Over the next week I'll be posting my preview for the 2011 baseball season, covering each of the six divisions.

The format will be the same as last year. For each team I've included their projected 2011 record as predicted by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system. The system determines playing time for all players on each team, derives Runs Scored and Runs Allowed totals from their 2011 forecasts, and extrapolates that into wins and losses (take a look at it here). We'll be using the PECOTA record as a baseline and then I will offer my take on each team's chances and how it will all stack up. Please feel free to agree, disagree, hurl obscenities at me, whatever. Let's talk baseball. 


NL West
Last year the San Diego Padres surprised everyone by sitting up in first place for most of the season before the rival Giants made a late charge and toppled them during the regular season's final series. San Francisco carried that momentum all through an exciting playoff run culminating in the franchise's first World Series since they moved from New York in 1958. They'll try to defend their division title this year against a strong collective that features a number of young, burgeoning superstars like Mat Latos, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Upton, and more. There's plenty of talent in this division, especially pitching-wise. The top four teams all boast potent pitching staffs and so it should be an exciting year in this competitive division once again.

1. Giants
PECOTA:  91-71
My take: Under

An elite pitching staff and patchwork offense carried this team all the way to a championship last year. Can they get back to the playoffs?

All the important pitchers return this year and they'll even get to have Madison Bumgarner in the rotation right from the get-go this time. The bullpen of bearded bombasts returns mostly intact as well. Collectively, this was the best run prevention unit in baseball last year (barely nudging past the Padres with a 3.36 team ERA) and I think we'll see more of the same. Their top four starters (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Bumgarner) might only be eclipsed by the quartet assembled in Philadelphia and this group is so young that they could even improve upon last year's performance.

Panda is expected to pick it up this year

The big question mark is, once again, can their offense produce? With such stifling run prevention, the lineup doesn't have to reach all that high. They just have to outscore the opponent. Having Buster Posey for a full season will certainly make a big difference and the same goes for their other add-ons from last year, Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Aubrey Huff is due for a regression after blasting his way to a career year last season at age 33 but, even if he slips, the team has their best prospect, Brandon Belt, waiting to pounce on an opening. Pablo Sandoval stunk last year but PECOTA projects him to have a nice bounceback season with a .299/.346/.465 batting average/on-base/slugging percentage. New shortstop Miguel Tejada was rejuvenated after escaping the dreary Baltimore atmosphere last season and, though he's not a very good fielder nowadays, he can still hit a little.

So, can this offense outscore its opponents? I think they can. But I don't think this team will win 90 games this year. It's a very tough division once again and, while I think they'll finish ahead of the pack, I see them battling it out with a young Rockies team all year. My prediction is 87 wins and another playoff run.

2. Rockies
PECOTA: 84-78
My take: Over

Just like the other top teams in this division, the Rockies are a team with a deep pitching staff and an unspectacular overall lineup. They do feature two young sluggers in Troy Tulowitzki (26 years old) and Carlos Gonzalez (25) who are only just now coming upon their peak years. These two are arguably the best hitters in the whole division. But the bats around them have been weak. Last year, none of the other regular hitters managed an OPS+ better than the league average and the only addition they made in the offseason was to bring in second baseman Jose Lopez, a free-swinging out-machine (career .297 OBP) though he can hit some homers and should enjoy playing in Coors Field.

Observe the stirrups

The strength of this team is the pitching staff and theirs is deep enough to match up with anyone in the division. The euphoniously named Ubaldo Jimenez has been improving his strikeout rate and ERA in each year of his career thus far and he'll only be 27 this year. He's a good bet to be one of the best pitchers in the NL this year. I'm excited about 23-year-old Jhoulys Chacin (another cool name) getting a chance to pitch in the rotation for a full season and the rest of the rotation is solid with Jason Hammel, Jorge de la Rosa, and Aaron Cook all capable of at least average production. The pen is deep and they've added a couple of flame-throwers in Matt Lindstrom and Felipe Paulino.

Though the lineup relies heavily on two players for run production, the Rockies can reasonably expect to see bounceback seasons from Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, and Seth Smith all of whom are still young. Not surprisingly, PECOTA has each of them tabbed for pretty strong seasons (a combined line of .275/.353/.465) and if they come through then this might actually turn into the best offense in the division. I think the Rox will be in the mix all year and I have them finishing in a tie with the Giants at 87 wins.

3. Padres
PECOTA: 80-82
My take: Over

The time is now for Chase Headley

I had a bunch to say about the Padres in a post the other day, the gist of it was that they've done a pretty good job patching up the gaping hole left by the Adrian Gonzalez trade. The lineup doesn't have anyone who's really imposing at all but they don't really have any major weakness either. Everyone in the lineup, with the possible exception of Cameron Maybin, can hit. And Maybin is so young that he just might still turn into a good player. Ryan Ludwick was horrible after coming to San Diego at the deadline last year but if he can hit closer to his normal established performance it'll be a huge boost.

Last year I thought Chase Headley would finally break out and have a big year at the plate but he finished with a measly .266 True Average (a stat that looks like batting average but encompasses every aspect of a hitter's performance). There's more pressure on him to produce now and he's entering his prime so I'm optimistic once again. Petco Park saps offensive numbers to a ridiculous degree but I don't think it's crazy to suggest he can put up a .280/.350/.415 line this year. That doesn't look spectacular but, for his home park it's pretty good and it would represent a big jump in performance for Headley.

The rotation just might be better than last year as they've plugged their only gaping holes. Mat Latos was a beast in his first year and finished in the top 10 of the Cy Young voting. Watching all of his games last year, it seemed his only real problem was immaturity. If he missed a couple pitches or gave up some hits, he'd put on a whole big fuss for everybody to see. He'll only be 23 this year but it would be very surprising if he's still pulling that shit on the mound again after an offseason to reflect on it. I expect him to have another big year.

The amazing San Diego bullpen (something of a Padre tradition, really) is back in full force and should continue to dominate. Even if the team trades closer Heath Bell, they've got at least two other guys who can step in and close games with Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson. This is a team that wins entirely on pitching & defense (with or without Adrian). The pitching is back and the defense has actually been improved with a new double-play duo and the fleet-footed Maybin in center. It wouldn't surprise me if the Padres are in the race for the division title again this year but I expect them to finish a couple games over .500.

4. Dodgers
PECOTA: 87-75
My take: Under

This organization is a Metsian mess. Let's talk about the positives first: they can pitch. Ned Colleti has assembled a very solid rotation with the young aces Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley backed up by a trio of Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, and Jon Garland. In a league with stacked rotations (the Giants, Phillies, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins) this group can go up against any of them. Don Mattingly gets his first shot at managing and should be able to better connect with the team's young players than senior citizen Joe Torre did.

Now, the bad news. Manny Ramirez is gone and his replacement looks to be Jay freakin' Gibbons, a washed up veteran who was out of professional baseball for a couple years until the Dodgers gave him a job. Matt Kemp was once supposed to be a superstar but he played like he didn't give a shit about anything last year, looking pathetic on the basepaths and generally lolly-gagging all over the field. Things can't really get much worse for him this year and a new, younger manager ought to be able to motivate him better. Andre Ethier is an all-around good hitter when healthy and the same goes for Rafael Furcal but after that, nobody else can hit. James Loney is a perennial disappointment, Casey Blake is 37 and he collapsed last year, and they've plugged the second base hole with Juan Uribe, a fun portly player with some power but not somebody you can really rely on. They also gave a bunch of money to Rod Barajas to be their starting catcher and, like Uribe, Barajas can hit the ball out of the park but makes far too many outs as his pathetic .284 career OBP attests to.

The pen has some good arms but their big closer fell off a cliff last season. PECOTA has an extremely optimistic projection for this team but I'll definitely take the under. I don't think they'll reach .500 this year although I do wish the best for Mattingly.

5. Diamondbacks
PECOTA: 75-87
My take: Even

Well, they definitely won't be nearly as bad as last season's 65-97 stinker. As discussed in this year's Baseball Prospectus annual, they might have finished a lot closer to .500 had it not been for one the absolute worst bullpens in baseball history last year. In general manager Kevin Towers, the D'backs brought in the perfect guy to fix that. If there's anything he's known for, it's putting together a strong bullpen on the cheap. Towers made a couple of quiet moves, bringing in J.J. Putz to close and a few other relievers with some potential and this definitely looks like an improved team. The rotation is young and lacking a true ace but overall it's a pretty solid group. Daniel Hudson looked great in 11 starts (70/16 K/BB and a 1.69 ERA) after being acquired from the White Sox last year and he's only 24. Who knows, maybe he'll become a star.

Their lineup might do some damage. Chris Young finally put together a nice season, fulfilling the high expectations we've had for him right when people started giving up hope. He drew a bunch of walks and just barely missed a 30/30 season (he had 27 homers and 28 steals). Miguel Montero is one of the best young catchers in the league, Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew can both hit, and while Justin Upton saw his power slip last year, the kid is entering his fourth full season and he's only 23. Don't count him out yet. They picked up Russell Branyan to split first base time with Brandon Allen and both of those guys have prodigious power.

This team certainly won't come close to losing 100 games again this year. They'll keep things competitive in this fun, talent-laden NL West division but look for them to finish under .500.

(Photo credits: Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images; David Zalubowski/Denver Post; Icon SM)

Warmups: Stadium Stories

Baseball season is on its way. Opening Day is a week from tomorrow and, before I start posting my previews for each division, I'd like to first get a little warmed up for baseball writing with a few posts on various things related to baseball. First up is an inventory of all the major league ballparks I've ever been to.

Doubtless, there are better places to spend summer days, summer nights, than in ballparks. Doubtless.
Nevertheless, decades after a person has stopped collecting bubble-gum cards, he can still discover himself collecting ballparks. And not just the stadiums, but their surrounding neighborhoods, their smells, their special seasons and moods.--Thomas Boswell, How Life Imitates the World Series

1. Yankee Stadium
It was here that I attended my first baseball game ever on July 21, 1995. My brother John brought me to a game as a birthday present (it was a few days after my 10th birthday) and the annual outing to Yankee Stadium would become a birthday staple over the next few years until I defiantly renounced my Yankee fanhood right around the same time everybody started jumping on the bandwagon. My favorite player growing up was Jim Leyrtiz, the bat-spinning back-up catcher and first baseman (who was obscure in those days but went on to become a World Series hero). Each year, John would choose the perfect game to attend, somehow always knowing which games Leyritz would be starting. That first game in '95 Leyritz actually started at first base against the Texas Rangers' lefty Kenny Rogers (Leyritz was replaced by Don Mattingly later in the game). The Yanks won 8-3 and the winning pitcher was Dave Eiland who went on to become the Yankees' pitching coach for these last three years.

I saw a bunch of games here over the years with various people: John and I went to Game 1 of the World Series in 1996 when the Yanks got shellacked by the Braves (though I got to see Jim Leyritz catch the whole game); during the summer of my first job in 1999, working as a messenger for the company both my mom and John worked for in lower Manhattan, a co-worker named Lou decided one day that we should skip work and go watch an afternoon Yanks-Blue Jays game from the bleachers; Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe brought me along to an ALDS game against the Tigers in 2006; and I got to say my last goodbyes in an early season game against the Rays in 2008, right before moving to San Diego (that was the Yankees' last season in the old stadium).

2. Veterans Stadium
My Aunt Jeanie brought my brother Billy and I to a game here in '95 or '96. It was Billy's first game ever and it was the Phillies against the San Diego Padres, an interesting augur because ten years later Billy would take up residence across the country in San Diego (which led to me moving out there too). That night, Billy caught a foul ball in his hat (!) that was lined off the bat of Pads' outfielder Melvin Nieves. I remember the stadium was enormous and imposing.

3. Shea Stadium

Shea Stadium in 2003

Although I can't recall my very first visit to this lovable old dump, it was here that I would watch more games than anyplace else over the years. After the Yankees started throwing money around (and dumping players like my old fave Jim Leyritz who went on to lead the Padres to the World Series) I grew sick of them and jumped on the bandwagon of my father's team: the Mets. This was during the years of Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura so it was a fun team to follow. I've been a diehard Mets fan ever since and I get maudlin and misty-eyed thinking about this place because, even though the building was a dump, I had so many great memories here. A few that stick out in my mind are these:

• A Saturday night interleague game against the Angels (John's favorite team) in which the Mets rallied twice in the late innings and won. Marlon Anderson tied the game in the bottom of the ninth with an inside-the-park homerun (!) against current Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. After surrendering a run in the top of the 10th, the Mets put two guys on base with their best hitters, Carlos Beltran and Piazza, coming up. They both struck out. It was all up to Cliff Floyd. He worked a full count, fouled off about a hundred pitches, then struck a monster homerun to win the game. Floyd was hurt so much in his career and is retired now but he provided a bunch of great evenings for Mets fans during a two year stretch. This was probably the most exciting game I've ever witnessed in person. I was sitting with John and his wife Kristina in one of my favorite spots in Shea: near the foul pole in fair territory out in left field.
• A Friday night game against the Phillies that was rain-delayed for about 3 or 4 hours before getting under way. I was at the game with John, Kristina, and my little sister Emily. John and Kristina left early because it was late, wet, and freezing. Me and Em stayed til the bitter end and got to see Carlos Beltran launch a walk-off bomb which had us jumping up and down and screaming with our cheap ponchos on.
• Witnessed the last two games in Montreal Expos history as they played two meaningless matches against the Mets on the last weekend of the season at Shea. The Mets and Expos both stunk that year and I lucked into having tickets to both of the last two games fall into my lap. For the final game, I remember Todd Zeile started at catcher for the Mets in his own last game before retirement. I watched that last game with three of my siblings on a crisp, sunny October afternoon as the Mets won 8-1 and the Montreal squad tossed a bunch of memorabilia to a group of devoted fans gathered above their dugout.

4. Stade Olympique
When it first looked like the Montreal Expos were going to be no more (the league was seriously talking about cutting two teams, they'd eventually settle for moving the Expos to Washington), my brother John, ever ambitious to go on a baseball trip (a trait he instilled in me, thankfully) drove us up to Montreal for a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Expos were a pretty good team in those days and we saw two entertaining games in that funky old stadium including a Sunday afternoon battle won on a walk-off smite by the 'Spos.

5. Toronto's SkyDome *
I'll use a * to indicate the stadiums I visited without getting to see a game there. My old Staten Island pal Joe and his mom brought me up to Toronto and Niagra Falls one year and we stayed in the hotel inside of the Blue Jays' home stadium. It was the offseason, though, so nothing was going on but we did sleep within the stadium and could see everything just outside our window.

6. Turner Field
Went to a game here while visiting my sister Laurie in Atlanta years back. I don't remember much about the game except that we sat in dead center, right next to the Braves bullpen (which has three mounds) and a few relievers, Paul Byrd chiefly among them, threw unopened sunflower seed packs to me and Billy after the game.

7. PNC Park

Another weekend baseball roadtrip with brother John. It was a beautiful, scenic drive through Pennsylvania and the stadium is one of the nicest I've ever seen, situated right at the intersection of Pittsburgh's three rivers. The Pirates played the Dodgers in a couple of forgettable games but the beauty of the stadium and the city sticks out in my mind the most. After the first game there was a fireworks show that was surreal---it incorporated not only the three yellow bridges beyond the outfield wall, but even the skyscrapers across the river. Best fireworks show I've ever seen.

8. Citizens Bank Park
When it first opened I took the train one day by myself (I was 18) and watched a game between the Phils and Tigers. The Tigers were atrocious in those days and the Phillies killed them. Over the years, I went to a handful of games here with my brother James and his three sons. In a homerun derby type of game against the Brewers, the guy sitting directly next to us caught a homerun on a line-drive (and we were in the second deck).


9. U.S. Cellular Field (aka new Comiskey Park)
When my brother Billy finished Navy bootcamp in June 2006, my whole family went over to Chicago for the graduation ceremony. After seeing him for a very short time, we had the whole night to ourselves in Chicago. Of course, I wanted to go see a baseball game and the Dodgers were in town for an interleague game with the Sox. Unfortunately, nobody in my family would join me but I took up my dad's offer to drop me off in the South Side and went to the game by myself. It was a lovely June evening and they were commemorating the 1959 World Series between the Sox and Dodgers. The Pale Hose won behind a great game from Mark Buehrle and I somehow ended up with a White Sox towel and then a White Sox credit card which I used for a few years.


10. Wrigley Field *
The next day after the White Sox game, my dad and I went to Wrigley and took a guided tour of the whole stadium. Great experience and, interestingly enough, the Cubbies were in New York playing the Yankees at the time. When I passed through Chicago on my way to California in the summer of '08, my brother Billy and I walked a lap or two around the outside of the stadium while the Cubbies were playing in...San Diego.

11. Petco Park

Oh Petco, how I love thee. After my first visit in 2006 (a memorably explosive game against the Braves) for my 21st birthday, I saw probably 25 games there over the next four years. I absolutely love this place and have so many good memories from there. Thankfully, many of them are preserved on this very blog but I really, really miss going to games there and hopefully will be back in San Diego one day. When I first moved there I got to live my dream: I was living in a rinky-dink studio apartment only two miles from the stadium so, on more than one occasion, I walked from my house to a baseball game. I could go on forever about this place but I'll stop now.

12. Fenway Park
First, did a stadium tour in the summer of 2007 while in Boston for my cousin Mary's wedding. Then, less than a year later, spent a weekend with Mary and her husband and they took me to a game. We sat out in the bleachers and watched the Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers trade bombs all day. The Sox won 11-7. I've been itching to get back there ever since.

13. Miller Park
During the 2008 cross-country road trip, one of the main stops was in Milwaukee so we could see a baseball game. They played the Arizona Diamondbacks with the roof closed (it was raining outside) and smoked 'em. After the game, Billy and I got to walk along the field because it was Senior Citizens Day and the elderly couple seated next to us said "come with us, you can pretend we're your parents." The people of Milwaukee are great.

14. AT&T Park

Another blurry photo from my clunky old camera.

In August of 2008 I visited San Francisco to look at a grad school I planned to attend, the California Institute of Integral Studies. The school was nice although far too expensive for me but I did get to go see a game while up there. It was an absolutely frigid, cloudy night in August and the Giants played the Braves in a meaningless game when both teams were out of the race. Yet, the stadium was packed and rowdy. This was a rare instance where I didn't stay for the entire game because I was just too cold, didn't prepare for winter weather in August.


15. Citi Field *
Got to do a full tour of the stadium, including dugout and clubhouses while the teams were present. Even spoke to Howard Johnson while he was on an elliptical machine. Did it all while posing as an electrician, hard hat and everything. Amazing and memorable experience, though I won't reveal how I ended up having the opportunity. Don't want to get anyone in trouble.


16. Angel Stadium
Fun, rowdy place. Went there this past summer with my girlfriend for my 25th birthday. Fun time though it was sweltering until the sun finally went down. We sat in the absolute last row of the stadium along the first base line and yet the view of the field was actually pretty good. Our view of the mountain range beyond the stadium was even better.

17. Dodger Stadium

An absolutely gorgeous stadium that seems like it was plopped down in the middle of a dense verdant forest. Went with bro Billy for a September matchup between the classic old New York rivals, the Giants and Dodgers. Sat very close to the field but was annoyed most of the people around us didn't seem to care that much about the game. When the game was over we got to walk right onto the outfield grass and watch a fireworks show, though.

Now that I've listed everything, I realize that during my three years living in California I went to every major league baseball stadium in the state except the Coliseum in Oakland. It's known as one of the worst facilities in professional sports but still, the A's are one of my favorite teams. All the more reason to go back there.

I'm currently situated in the middle of Texas, at least three hours from a pro baseball team but, as a diehard seamhead, I will definitely be taking the long drive to both Houston and Arlington to add those to my list.

Will the Padres win another game this season?

After another loss to the Colorado Rockies yesterday afternoon, the Padres have now gone 9 games without a win. It's the longest losing streak in seven years and the fans here in San Diego are starting to worry that maybe the clock has struck midnight very abruptly on this magical season and this Cinderella Pad squad is turning into a pumpkin.

They had been cruising along at an essentially perfect pace for 5 straight months to start the year. Their record and run differential was better than all but the best two teams in baseball. Counting last year they've actually been playing like the best team in the National League for 7 straight months (they finished the season going 32-21 in the last two months of '09). They had not even had a losing streak longer than 3 games throughout this year and had only experienced such a streak twice.

Now they seem to have ran into a wall and are having trouble getting back up. Well-executed fundamental baseball has been a constant for this crew but we've seen the defense coming apart at the seams in this sloppy 9-game slide. The other night Miguel Tejada, for no apparent reason, tried to catch a throw from the second basemen with his bare hand to start a double play. It was a ridiculous thing to try and he totally missed it, granting the D'backs two extra outs for the inning. Another defensive miscue followed and then Luke Gregerson allowed a monstrous grand slam. Today Everth Cabrera booted an easy grounder that would've started a doubleplay. This is not how the Padres have played all year.

The team's strategy throughout the year has been simple but impeccably executed: keep the games close with strong starting pitching and defense, scrap out a lead with timely hitting, and then hand things off to a virtually unhittable bullpen. During this streak their pitching has been atrocious, allowing almost 6 runs per game and the sputtering offense has only scored 2.3 per contest.

So, is what we've seen these past nine games the real talent level of the Padres? Were the first 5 months of pure excellence a total fluke?

I really don't think so. But the mounting losses are undoubtedly testing this team mentally and you can see guys starting to freak out and have tantrums like Jon Garland did in the Padre dugout during an ugly inning yesterday. Perhaps that's exactly what a discombobulated team needs to get back on track.

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Searching for an excuse for this streak of struggles, we can at least grant that they've played against good teams. The Diamondbacks started out terribly but they have played much better baseball as of late, finishing August with a 16-13 record (the same as the Padres during that span). The losing streak began with a 11-5 pounding in Arizona before the Friars came home for a weekend series with the Phillies who always play great this time of year. With reinforcements like Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins having just returned to the lineup and Joe Blanton and Chase Utley throwing gems, the Phils swept their opponents at Petco. I was at the Saturday game (pic below) and the Padres looked lifeless, showing no indication of the determined, tough at-bats and late inning rallies that have been customary for this San Diego team for basically the last calendar year.

After that embarassing sweep in their home park they went back over to Arizona again and got walloped in a three game set (outscored 19-6) and now the last two games they've battled a Colorado team that is on fire (as they always are at this time of the year) and against whom they've had trouble all season, winning just 4 of 10 games against the Rox. Back in May I stated that the Rockies would probably make a surge eventually and the Padres might not be good enough to withstand it when it comes. Well, here is that surge as they've climbed to within 5.5 games for the first time since July, their best player is back in the lineup after a month on the DL, CarGo is heating up and one mustn't forget the resilient Giants who have continued to nip at the Padres' heels, now sitting only 2 games back. It really is looking like it'll be an exciting September in the NL West.

Last night I found myself up in Los Angeles and actually rooting for the Dodgers as they played the Giants. I'll hopefully make a post entirely devoted to that experience but the Dodgers managed to win and keep the Giants down, otherwise they'd only be 1 game back right now.

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So...will the Padres win another game this season or anytime soon?

Of course they will. I think they'll either win today's tilt with Clayton Richard on the mound or, if they lose again and push it to double digits, Mat Latos will blow away the Dodgers on Monday and we'll all forget this ever happened.

But now since they've allowed the Giants to get close again the question remains: can this Padres team win the division?

The Padres have an extremely tough schedule to finish out the year. The worst team they'll face is the Cubs and they've got to face San Francisco seven more times, the Dodgers six, plus seven games against the Cardinals and Reds.

Once they shake off this embarrassing stumble, this is still a quality Padres team. Keep in mind Miguel Tejada is actually hitting pretty well with a 106 OPS+ thus far as a Padre, Chase Headley and Adrian Gonzalez were great in August, and the surprise explosion that is Chris Denorfia's 2010 season hasn't slowed down one bit (145 OPS+ in August). If Ryan Ludwick can shake off his slow San Diego start (.658 OPS) and hit at a rate closer to his established norm, I think the offense will not only be fine but it should be an improvement on what they've been winning with for much of the year. The rotation looks a little more troubling as Wade LeBlanc seems to have lost his touch (although he had great K/BB numbers last month, he's been giving up far too many homers), Jon Garland's luck is fading and Kevin Correia continues to struggle (5.52 ERA on the year, 7.20 in August).There are reinforcements available in-house though, especially long relief man Tim Stauffer who's been itching to get back in the rotation and I think Bud Black and Darren Balsey will sort things out with the starters. The pen is not to be worried about with this team, it's too deep and too talented to fuss over.

These next four weeks are going to be thriling and, no matter what happens, I'll be glad to be watching pennant race Padre baseball in September which is something I never thought possible. I just hope they don't emulate the recent fate of my ignominious Mets.

How 'bout them Padres?

It's certainly been a great season for the Padres so far. I managed to secure great seats to Thursday afternoon's battle with their rival Dodgers and watched a tense 2-2 game that was won in the bottom of the 9th by Padre pinch-hitter Oscar Salazar. On "Throwback Thursday" with the Padres sporting their 1978 brown-and-yellow uniforms, it was fitting that the game was won by one of the only players wearing the true 70s high stirrups.

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It was announced during the game that the Padres had just traded for Miguel Tejada from Baltimore and a great buzz hummed throughout the 42,000-plus in attendance. I heard some bad words about current struggling shortstop Everth Cabrera and grumblings about what Tejada has left. But I like the deal very much and was excited when I heard about it.

Make no mistake about it, this Padre team has some run-scoring issues. Their pitching is so unbelievably amazing that this hasn't hurt their success but general manager Jed Hoyer recognized the team's main issue and made clear improvements with some offensive reinforcement for the pennant race the Padres are now seriously involved in. In his first year running the team, he's already shown a knack for shrews trades. This morning he picked up a solid corner outfield bat in Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals.

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The key in acquiring Tejada is that the Padres have gotten pretty much nothing offensively out of their shortstop position. After a strong rookie season last year, Everth Cabrera has struggled terribly this year with a .198 average and .270 OBP. He's looked pathetic at the plate recently as he's receded further into a slump and taken to bunting in almost every at bat to try and beat out an infield base hit. With David Eckstein injured, Jerry Hairston Jr. has had to cover for him at second base and so Cabrera has been left to rot out there. Now he'll be a back-up and pinch runner.

Tejada hasn't hit well in Baltimore this year but escaping that decrepit failure of a franchise (and the highly competitive AL East division) for the first place Padres should enliven him a bit. He had a very good year for the Astros last season, leading the National League in doubles with 46 so he probably has something left to show NL foes. His diminished defensive range shouldn't be a huge problem with the Padres pitching staff leading the majors in strikeout rate and thus putting fewer balls in play. He's also a perfect platoon partner for Chase Headley at third: Headley struggles with a .194/.263/.242 line against lefties while Tejada has a strong .821 OPS against southpaws for his career.

Ryan Ludwick is a huge addition for this team. Not only is he a very good fielder with a cannon arm (thus not disrupting but perhaps adding to the excellent Padre defense) but he's a solid above-average hitter (.288 True Average) who immediately becomes the Padres' second best offensive player. As a fan, I'm very excited about this upgraded lineup.

Best of all, the Padres didn't have to give up very much to get these two hitters. The best player given up is probably minor league pitcher Wynn Pelzer who they sent to the Orioles in exchange for Tejada. Pelzer was the #5 prospect in their system before this season according to Baseball Prospectus but he's struggled at Double-A this season and will probably end up in the bullpen.

Some early season thoughts on Padres, Athletics, Mets

I haven't written any baseball posts since my Season Preview and now that we're more than 30 games in I'd like to take a look at my three favorite teams.

San Diego Padres
Record: 22-12
Run differential: +45

They've been the baseball season's biggest surprise so far, starting the season as a projected last place team but with 34 games played they're comfortably in first place in their division and have the best record in the National League. Today they finished off a sweep of the Giants (again) on the road with a nearly perfect game pitched by Mat Latos.

I spoke very highly of the Padres' chances in my preseason predictions but I couldn't have imagined they would burst out of the gates with the second best start to a season in franchise history. Their bullpen has been the best in baseball so far and they've gotten great work out of a rotation that wasn't supposed to be very good but Jon Garland has pitched great (although a bit over his head), Mat Latos is getting better with each start (complete game one-hitter today), and lefties Wade LeBlanc and Clayton Richard have done surprisingly well. The offense doesn't look quite so good, though. Adrian Gonzalez (.265/.383/.453) hasn't heated up yet and for as great as Chase Headley's looked thus far, he's got a sub-.400 slugging percentage. I'm waiting for Kyle Blanks to gain some composure (41 strikeouts already in 89 at-bats) and start mashing like he did last year and the rest of the outfield has been weak enough at the plate that the local paper was making a case for the team to sign Jermaine Dye this week.

They've won with great pitching, defense (second-best UZR in baseball), and baserunning (league-leading 44 steals) which must make the baseball classicists feel warm inside. But can they keep us this up for very long? I'm a fan, I go see their games all the time, but I don't think so. The Dodgers and Rockies, the division's projected powerhouses, stumbled to start the year but the Padres have lost both series they've played against the Rockies so far and they haven't even played the Dodgers yet. The boys in blue are in San Diego for a weekend series and they've won their last 4, should be a fun weekend (too bad I'll be in New York for the next four days). I stand by my prediction of the Dodgers winning the division, but they have to get over their weird affection for washed up pitchers (Jeff Weaver, Ramon/Russ Ortiz). The offense is there and, despite the worries of their fans, I think the pitching staff will be fine with the top 3 of Kershaw-Billingsley-Kuroda. Crafty young righthander (you don't hear that description too often) John Ely looked good in his first three starts and I'm hoping he sticks around for the year.

Oakland A's
Record: 18-17
Run differential: -2

Similar to the Padres, they got off to great start and beat up on division rivals but they ran into a tough stretch where the AL East beasts smacked them around a little bit until Dallas Braden's world-shocking perfect game against the Rays this past Sunday. They've suffered their usual injuries already (Brett Anderson, Mark Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Coco Crisp, and more) but have stayed competitive mainly due to strong pitching, defense, and baserunning (just like the Pads).

Daric Barton is finally playing as good as he'd been expected to for a few years and he's become my favorite player. His at-bats are fun to watch; a very composed hitter, he's got an excellent batting eye never seeming to swing at anything out of the strike zone, draws a ton of walks (his .400 OBP is 10th in the American League), and smacks line drives all over the place. He's not hitting for the type of power you'd hope for in a first baseman but his on-base percentage is so good that it makes up for the lack of power. A perfect Billy Beane player.

Although they eventually lost 2-1, the Athletics played an excellent game against the Rangers on the road today in which they executed two shortstop-to-catcher plays at the plate, the second one a game saver. I watch a hell of a lot of baseball and it seems like teams mess up that simple play often but the A's executed to perfection. They're a crisp defensive team (although Coco Crisp hasn't manned the outfield pastures yet) that rarely makes mistakes behind a strong pitching staff.

Designated hitter/third baseman Eric Chavez was once my favorite player in baseball. He remains the only player whose baseball jersey I've ever bought (I have a few nameless team jerseys, though) but he's been an immense disappointment after signing a huge contract, sitting out with a multitude of injuries for the last 4 years now. He's back and he's healthy but he absolutely sucks (.660 OPS with 1 homerun). Presumably because of his huge contract, he's been the team's regular DH. This has to change. It bothers me that Jack Cust, one of the best hitters on the team, is playing in Triple-A right now. They've also got Chris Carter, a slugging prospect, waiting to come up and knock in some runs. The division doesn't look as tight as it was expected to be (the Mariners don't score enough to compete) but if the A's are serious about winning it they've got to insert a real hitter into that DH spot.

New York Mets
Record: 18-17
Run differential: +15

This team looks alot different with Ike Davis at first base. They just don't seem nearly as bad as I thought they would be with an on-base machine like Ike manning first. He's only played 22 games but I think the 23-year-old Davis is the real deal, maybe a bit short in the power department but that will come as he gets more major league at bats. David Wright looks like himself again (7 homers, .525 slugging) even though the sports audience in New York never stops whining about him. And even the pitching staff has been good, especially the bullpen (2nd best reliever ERA in the league). My main complaint is manager Jerry Manuel and his inability to grasp simple baseball concepts, most glaringly with his lineup selection. It's simple: the higher a player bats in the order, the more chances he will get in a game and over the season as a whole. Therefore, the best hitters should bat highest in the order, putting them in a position to get the most chances. David Wright, by far the best hitter on the team, continually bats 5th in the order. Ike Davis and his .400 OBP bats 6th. Jose Reyes, whose been the leadoff sparkplug for this team his entire career, has been inserted into the #3 spot for some ridiculous reason while Manuel regularly leads off with Angel Pagan, a solid player who I like very much but who definitely should not bat ahead of the likes of Reyes, Wright, Davis or even Jason Bay. Manuel even puts Alex Cora (.316 OBP this year, .313 career) in the #2 spot often! It's insane!

Whining about the batting order is minor, though. Most studies show that batting order makes a relatively minimal difference over the year but in a division with the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and even surprisingly strong Nationals, they need to have their best hitters come to the plate more often.

I'm off to the eastern seaboard for the weekend and most likely won't post for a little while.

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 1: NL West

Throughout the week, as we approach Opening Day I will be posting my preview for the 2010 baseball season. I will be covering each of the six divisions, starting off with the NL West and moving eastward.

For each team I've included their projected 2010 record as predicted by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system. The system determines playing time for all players on each team, derives Runs Scored and Runs Allowed totals from their 2010 forecasts, and extrapolates that into wins and losses. We'll be using the PECOTA record as a baseline and I'll offer my take on each team's chances and how they'll all stack up.  

NL West
A division that used to be an afterthought, a joke, an easy bet to be the worst division in baseball suddenly became the best division in the National League last year (.533 win% playing against the other divisions). The western chapter of the senior circuit is overflowing with young talent and, as players like Matt Kemp and Tim Lincecum continue to build on the levels of performance they've established, the NL West should continue to be a division of supreme quality baseball.

The Rockies and Dodgers have both established themselves as playoff contenders and it'll be fun to watch them duke it out for the division crown this year. I think it'll be a very close finish with the Dodgers finishing ahead by a hair, though, because even though they've lost some players from their big 2009 season and didn't add on much, they are still absolutely loaded with talent at the plate and on the mound.


1. Dodgers
PECOTA's projection: 82-80
My take: Over
The 1-2 pitching punch of Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley might be a tougher duo than their rivals Tim Lincecum-Matt Cain and a bullpen that was the best in baseball last year returns almost all of its contributors. On offense, the Manny-Kemp-Ethier combo will carry them again and I'm optimistic about Russell Martin (no where to go but up after last year), and James Loney who had a great postseason last year.

Their main problem is depth. If someone gets hurt they don't have anybody to plug a hole (Xavier Paul?) and they are actually entrusting Vicente Padilla to provide quality starting pitching for them. It's gonna be a tough season, I certainly don't envision them sitting up in first place all summer but in the end their core will lead them ahead of the Rockies' oncoming avalanche. They won 95 games last year when they were good enough to win 99 but I'll take the Over on PECOTA's 82-win prediction and peg them for about 90.


2. Rockies
PECOTA's projection: 86-76
My take: Over
One of the league's most exciting young teams right now they ought to really give the Dodgers a hard time. I expect Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler to continue to take steps forward and excel, Troy Tulowitzki is a monster, and Ubaldo Jimenez will be one of the top 10 pitchers in the league especially with their strong defense backing him up.

I peg them for 88 wins, a bit of a drop from last season's 92 attributable to the fact that this will be a really strong division this year. Last season it was basically the Rockies and Dodgers with the Giants tagging along but not really being able to hang with the big boys because of their puny offense. Everybody (yes, even the Padres, see below) should be pretty competitive this season and I think that'll drag the records of the Rockies and Dodgers down. Still a battle between those two for the top of the mountain but the mountain isn't quite as steep this time.

3. Diamondbacks
PECOTA's projection: 83-79
My take: Even
Alot of people like this team as a darkhorse contender and there's certainly alot to like about them. They've got Justin Upton for one. Mark Reynolds is young and blasted 44 homers last year. Conor Jackson, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero and even Kelly Johnson can all hit. I like their rotation alot this year, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren can pitch with the best of them and the two youngsters they picked up in the offseason, Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, ought to be relieved to discover that there's only 8 good hitters to face every night in the National League.

But the D'backs have looked good on paper for a few years now and they've been disastrous. Sure, if everything clicks (all those names perform at high levels) they can be a great team, certainly a playoff contender, but how often does everything break right for a team? The guy who's out there telling everybody what to do, manager A.J. Hinch, hasn't managed a baseball team (any team) for even one year. He's got a psychology degree, though. In a highly competitive division, I see them being just that: competitive. "On paper" their roster can probably match up with the Dodgers and Rockies but I don't think the D'backs will be able to hang with them all year. They'll certainly contribute to what will be a tight race for this division, though.

4. Padres 
PECOTA's projection: 73-89 
My take: Over
This will probably be the most daring prediction I come up with. The Padres are supposed to be absolutely terrible this year according to most analysts and predictive systems. BP has them finishing with 73 wins, the CHONE projection system says 78 wins but I peg them at about 80. Why? Because, crazy as it may sound, I think they have a solid lineup (and good enough pitching). Their main offensive hole is David Eckstein at secondbase but if he plays bad enough maybe Matt Antonelli will supplant him, finally. They've got a surprisingly strong middle of the order in Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks (who I'm really excited about), and Chase Headley. I expect good things from Headley who had a solid-but-unspectacular season last year with a .280 EqA, he's only 26 and he's moving back to original position at thirdbase after trying out left field for a couple seasons. Twenty-seven year-old Will Venable put up a .285 EqA last year and will get a chance to shine this season as the starting rightfielder and they've got Scott Hairston back in the mix, a guy who managed to slug .533 playing in the worst hitter's park in baseball last year (before he was traded, that is).

The pitching is nothing spectacular but Mat Latos is pretty damn good already and he's only 22. The rest of the rotation: Chris Young is helpful if healthy (last time he managed a full season he had a 3.12 ERA), Kevin Correia doesn't impress me but does eat up innings, same with Jon Garland, and Clayton Richard has some upside as a young lefty who throws hard but I'd like to see Tim Stauffer and Wade LeBlanc get some starts. The Pads have also assembled an impressive pen. It adds up to a .500-ish season that'll keep San Diego fans happy and hopefully (fingers crossed) Adrian Gonzalez in his hometown. (In the interest of full disclosure I should note that I currently live about 10 minutes away from Petco Park and developed a slight rooting interest in this team.)

5. Giants
PECOTA's projection: 81-81
My take: Under
Yes, their topline pitching is amazing. But the offense is as bad as the pitching is good. And as horrible as their hitters were last year, they were lucky to have even scored as many runs as they did according to the Giants' chapter in this year's BP annual. A regression is expected for an offense that was 13th in scoring in the National League last year. The strong rotation and bullpen won't make up for that.

They will be fun to watch, though, with Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval leading the way and I also enjoy following the machinations of a manager like Bruce Bochy trying to mix & match and move players around in his lineup in an attempt to ignite some slight little spark with his poorly equipped charges. I see them finishing a few games below .500 with their badly unbalanced approach of all-pitching, no-hitting catching up with them after their 88-win breakthrough last season (their run totals suggest they were actually about an 83-win team). In what should be a battle to avoid the bottom of the barrel, the Giants will finish below the Pads.