2013 MLB Season Preview Part 1: AL West

And another new season begins.

This will be the fourth time in this blog's history that I'll be writing up a division-by-division baseball preview. Each time in the past I've gotten at least a couple predictions dead wrong. Last year, for instance, I had the Nationals finishing in last place and the revamped Marlins winning the NL East. Instead, the Nats won 98 games and the division while the Marlins imploded with a 69-win last-place disaster season.

All of which is to say: don't take this too seriously. No matter how well you know baseball, it's impossible to predict the outcome of a six-month-long season with any sort of accuracy. This format is merely the most convenient for discussing each team's chances. I like to yap about baseball and looking at each team's projected record represents a good starting point.

Baseball's Race to the Postseason (AL Edition)

The baseball season has zoomed by so fast that I haven't had much time to write anything about it. As Austin receives its first extended downpour of rain in about 3 months, now's the time to quickly share my thoughts on how things have played out and what we can look forward to over the final 15 games or so of the regular season.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 1: AL West

Yu Darvish, the newest Texas ace (photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

I wanted to avoid following baseball closely this year.

It takes up far too much of my time and mental energy.

Then the Angels, Rangers, and Tigers had to go and sign big-time players and suck me back in. Then Major League Baseball had to go and add another Wild Card team to the playoff scenario and modify the overall outlook of everything. The American League is stacked. Now it's impossible not to be invested in the outcomes.

The Wave that Washed Your Meals Away

The excitement of the 2011 major league baseball season suddenly burst into supernova recently. It all began late Tuesday night in Atlanta.

After the 3rd inning, the Pirates and Braves were locked in a 3-3 tie. Nobody managed to put across another run for the next 16 innings. They nearly played the equivalent of two full baseball games without scoring a run. I tuned into the MLB.tv feed around the 13th inning and the matchup just seemed far too boring so I skipped to a different game. Once I saw that they were headed to the 16th, I realized this could be something special. The kind of game where managers actually have to start putting their thinking caps on (both skippers confused their thinking caps with dunce caps, though, as evidenced by their long line of stupid maneuvers).

The game got to the bottom of the 19th inning when things finally got interesting. The Braves put two runners aboard with one out. Julio Lugo, who I had only recently realized was still in the majors, stood at third base. The Braves had run out of position players so they let Scott Proctor, a crappy pitcher and an even worse hitter, step to the plate. He managed to make pretty solid contact but he hit a ground ball directly at the third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Lugo took off from third towards home plate and while Alvarez hurled a perfect throw to the catcher I remember thinking that this is one of the things I love to see in baseball, a tense moment with the game on the line and a fielder executing a perfect throw to home plate to keep the game alive.

The throw home was perfect, alright. Pirates catcher Michael McHenry, a minor league scrub acquired from the Red Sox organization after a slew of Pittsburgh catchers started falling apart in succession, received the throw from Alvarez and met the oncoming Lugo a few feet in front of home plate. Lugo was out by a mile and he knew it. He didn't even try to bowl the catcher over or knock the ball out of his glove, he simply executed a feeble slide with a look on his face like he didn't want the catcher to be too rough with him. Perhaps McHenry sensed Lugo's hapnophobia because instead of firmly smacking him with the glove, he waved his arm in the vicinity of Lugo's leg.

Lugo stood up from his slide with his body slumped into disappointment when suddenly the umpire gave the signal "SAFE!" and Lugo quickly touched homeplate. The game was over. And "the umpire" was about to lose his relative anonymity. The world of baseball-watchers exploded in anger. I've never enjoyed following the stream of Twitter messages as much as I did that Tuesday night (after 1 AM, mind you). Everybody had been tuning into the game because of how unusually long it was lasting, it seemed like there was a shot at history being made. Well, it was historic alright. Many people called it the worst call they'd ever seen in a baseball game.

In retrospect, the umpire Jerry Meals apologized and admitted he messed up while some have argued that he may have actually made the correct call. Major League Baseball actually issued a statement saying that Meals screwed it up, but they can't take it back. They won't be bringing the two teams back together to re-do everything. It's in the books. Worst of all for the Pirates, who are contending for the first time in some 19 years, this could be the difference between them going to the postseason or not.

*   *   *

All of that stuff was going on around 2 AM eastern time and so the next day figured to be filled with all kinds of reactions once everyone got to gather their thoughts on the incident. Well, a huge wave of Wednesday baseball action suddenly splashed, overtaking and washing away all the Jerry Meals news that had begun to pile up.

With the trade deadline looming, the newswire had begun to buzz with big news: the St. Louis Cardinals were going to trade their young stud centerfielder, Colby Rasmus. The 24-year-old Rasmus, although a world class talent, had been squabbling with the team's manager last year and it spilled over into this season with Rasmus having a bad year to show for it. It certainly didn't help Rasmus' standing with the Cardinals that his father had the attitude of a big-mouthed little league dad constantly interfering with the team's handling of his son. Better yet, it was the Toronto Blue Jays' shrewd young general manager who was swooping in to grab Rasmus and bring him up to the nest in Toronto along with a bunch of other rejected fledglings.

Before that trade was completed, the news wire blew up again: the New York Mets had reached a deal to send Carlos Beltran, the most coveted trade bait in baseball, to the San Francisco Giants. The rumors about Beltran had been swirling around for a few weeks but suddenly the wind jutted violently like a cold day in the Bay Area and Beltran was gone. But the Mets managed to scoop up the Giants' best pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, in return. (Personally, I'm sad to see Beltran go but glad he's headed to a contender defending their championship. I'll have more to say on Beltran and the Mets soon.)

While baseball peeps were still assimilating these two huge events, an afternoon baseball game in Cleveland between the Angels and Indians suddenly demanded everyone's attention. Angels righthander Ervin Santana was pitching a no-hitter. Once everybody (including me, via my iPhone) managed to tune in, Santana cruised through the last two innings and history was made. Suddenly, nobody gave a crap about Jerry Meals. 

Early Season Baseball Ponderings

The baseball season is barely one-tenth of the way through, still far too early to make any solid judgments but there's been plenty of interesting developments to watch thus far. In the three full weeks of watching games (I haven't been able to watch any of the NHL or NBA playoff games so I've settled for absorbing tons of baseball on MLB.tv) I've caught a bunch of interesting observations.

Though I'm often clicking through various concurrent games depending on the situation, competitiveness, team interest level, etc of each one, I do often find myself deciding to stay put and watch one baseball game in its entirety. It's often said that you see something new any time you watch a baseball game---in other words, no matter how many games you've watched, something will occur that you've never seen and it's often something memorable. A couple weeks ago, I was watching a Saturday afternoon game between the Tampa Bay Rays (a team I'm quickly becoming a fan of) and the Chicago White Sox. In the bottom of the 4th inning, Tampa starter Wade Davis got himself into a jam walking the bases loaded with two outs. Lucky for him, the batter he was facing was the #9 hitter in the White Sox lineup.

He thew a biting fastball up and in shattering the bat of Brett Morel who followed through with his splintered lumber and managed to pop the ball up just barely over the pitcher's head and beyond the mound at such a perfect and unintentionally soft velocity that it plopped down onto the grass untouched by the onrushing middle infielders. I've never seen such an occurrence, a perfectly lucky little blip in the expected outcome of things. It was like a pinball that manages to get lodged into some perfectly unreachable, almost structurally defective spot in a pinball machine. And a run scored on the play which loaded the bases once again, this time with the leadoff batter coming up for the White Sox. Alas, the Sox counterproductively put one of the worst hitters in baseball at the very top of their lineup so up steps slappy out-machine Juan Pierre to presumably kill his team's big rally and let the opposing pitcher escape unscathed. That's what I thought would happen.

Instead, Pierre took a mighty swing at the first pitch he saw and clocked a liner to right field that looked to possibly be a homerun otherwise an off-the-wall extra base hit that would clear the bases. Suddenly across the screen, in full horizontal hoverance above the warning track dirt, rightfielder Sam Fuld launched and about 3/4ths of the way through his flight managed to grab the flying orb in his outstretched glove. Inning over, three runs saved. It has to be on the short list of greatest catches I've ever seen while watching a game and it was especially shocking because of the above described circumstances.

Rob Neyer wrote a nice piece on "The Legend of Sam Fuld" the other day, noting his penchant for acrobatic catches. Looking through the video archives of Fuld's many highlight reel catches, though, it appears he's got a certain flair for the dramatic, often diving or sliding when he doesn't really have to. Having said that, the catch in that White Sox game is still one of the best I've ever seen.

*   *   *

As of this morning, the New York Mets have the worst record in baseball. They're off to a terrible start on the year and they've lost 9 out of their last 10. Most of that can be attributed to their terrible pitching, they've given up more runs that any team in the National League thus far, they've also looked atrocious in the field, dropping or completely missing easy fly balls in key moments.

The offense has been terrible as well, but I'm happy to see that Carlos Beltran has returned to his awesome self, hitting .286/.355/.554 thus far, after a bunch of knee problems had left his future in doubt before the season. The 33-year-old Beltran won't be galloping around the pastures of centerfield anymore and he seems to have put on some weight, but the guy can still hit and that's great. If he stays healthy and keeps hitting like this he'll almost certainly be traded away during the season and I'll be sad to see his Mets career come to an end without him ever getting to avenge that horrible swingless strikeout to end the Mets' World Series run in 2006. But at least he'll probably go out on a strong note and escape this festering team.

*   *   *

Through some sort of glitch in the system, I managed to scoop up righthander Dan Haren very late in my fantasy draft this year. That glitch seems to mirror the real life one in which somehow, in a league where durable, effective pitchers are such a rare and treasured commodity, the Angels picked up Haren last year for spare parts. Haren has been superb thus far this year. In four starts he's got a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he's thrown a few gems, including a one-hit shutout of the Indians (the highest scoring team in the league right now, for what it's worth). His approach has been fun to watch, as he operates with emotionless precision, carving through batting orders and looking away heartlessly after a hitter flails at strike three and marches away frustrated. He looks extremely confident in his stuff, throwing lots of changeups and darting splitters. Don't be surprised if he reels off some crazy 15-2 first half, this guy has always been that good.

*   *   *

That we're talking about the Cleveland Indians at all is an example of how small sample sizes can be deceiving but, to be honest, they're kicking ass thus far. After 18 games, they're tied for the best record in baseball and they've got by far the best run differential in baseball. I can promise you they will not maintain that pace but, still, it counts for something. As I noted in my AL Central preview, this is a team that can score some runs, and they've got the best offense in the league thus far in the young season. And they've done it thus far without strong output from their two best hitters, as both Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana have struggled thus far.

Similar to Carlos Beltran, I'm particularly glad that Grady Sizemore has made his way back and didn't seem to lose anything along his journey through the underworld. The former face of the franchise and projected superstar hasn't played at full strength in two years and yet he came back this week looking as good as ever. In his first game he smacked a homer and a double then went 3 for 5 with a walk and a double in his second game. He's still only 28 and so this could be the beginning of Sizemore's second career.

*   *   *

One thing that's always great to observe as the season takes shape is the emergence of rookies. Three rookie pitchers have caught my attention early on:

• Zach Britton of the Orioles has shown a composed presence for a 23-year-old rookie and the lefty has been a groundball machine, relying mostly on a hard sinker. A lefty with a 6/2 K/BB ratio and a bunch of groundballs, he looks like a star in the making.
• Kyle Drabek has been talked about as a prospect for years now and his major league performance thus far hasn't disappointed. Wearing jersey number 4, a rare pitcher with a single-digit jersey number (though I'm not sure why that's so uncommon), he's been solid for the Blue Jays thus far. He's walked a few too many batters (15 in 25 innings thus far), but he's had great stuff and doesn't look the least bit flustered out there. I watched his first game this year and he was virtually unhittable against the Twins. He went 7 innings and gave up one hit while inducing 11 ground ball outs.
• There's not much incentive to watching the Seattle Mariners these days but big righty Michael Pineda is worth a look. He's only had three starts thus far but there have been flashes of dominance from the 22-year-old. In his second career start, he pitched into the 8th inning against the Blue Jays and struck out 7. He relies almost entirely on a fastball-slider combo, not much in the off-speed department. The fastball sits in the high-90s and the lanky 6-foot-7 hurler has a very smooth, easy throwing motion. It's extremely early in the season and even earlier in this guy's career, but he already looks like a great complement to combine with King Felix atop that Seattle rotation for years to come.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 4: AL West

As we move into the American League portion of these previews, I'm going to try and keep the entry for each team a bit shorter as it's taking me far too long to assemble these previews and I want to have it all completed before Opening Day which is...tomorrow!

AL West

Baseball's only four-team division looks like it'll be a three-team race this year. Oakland has brought in a bunch of bats, Texas is a new powerhouse, and the Angels won't stay down for long. The Mariners look terrible once again.

(Note: the PECOTA numbers are as they appeared on 3-25-11)

1. Athletics
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Over

This is my favorite American League team and I've been picking them to win the AL West each year for a while now.  They haven't won it since 2006 which was also the last time they played in the postseason. But the team has now established a(nother) strong trio of young front-end starters in Brett Anderson-Trevor Cahill-Gio Gonzalez. The team finished at exactly .500 last year, 81-81, with an anemic lineup and uncharacteristically shaky bullpen. They've completely revamped the lineup, adding three hitters who jump right into the 3-4-5 slots and pushing guys like Kurt Suzuki and Kevin Kouzamanoff down to the bottom of the order. Daric Barton established himself as an on-base machine (.393 OBP last year) atop the lineup and I think the overall result will be better run-production than the A's have had in many years.

The pitching looks to be strong again with a loaded bullpen and as long as they have the Ellis-Pennington combo at 2B/SS and Coco Crisp (if he's healthy) manning centerfield, this is a great defensive team. I've got them pegged for a big year, 87 wins and a playoff appearance.


2. Rangers
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Even

The defending American League champs look strong once again this year. Adding Adrian Beltre to that lineup (as well as his superb defense in the field) will be a major boost to them. While this is an organization that looks to be prepared to compete for years to come, I think we'll see a tiny bit of regression from their 90 wins last season. Their pitching staff was outstanding last season, particularly the bullpen. If the two best starters, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, can match their excellence from last year, this team will be great again but I expect them both to fall back down to earth a bit. Same with the bullpen; while Neftali Feliz is an unquestionably superb pitcher, saving him only for the 9th inning and textbook "save situations" is a terrible waste of resources.

3. Angels
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over

My big brother John has been an Angels fan for something like 30 years so I commissioned him to share his thoughts on his favorite team's chances this year. Here's what he had to say:

Like every other Angels fan I am disappointed that they blew their money on paying off the rest of Vernon Wells' contract rather than overpaying for Carl Crawford. The fact that Boston chose Crawford out of all the big free agents of the last few years to really go overboard on should tell you that he was the guy to get.

But as far as 2011 goes, I feel the Angels have the widest degree of possible outcomes of any team out there. They might win 90 games or they might only win 72. Neither would surprise me.

Peter Bourjos' range knows no bounds

The key may be Peter Bourjos. He is another monster defensive centerfielder in the Gary Pettis and Devon White tradition. With him running down everything in sight out there (giving the Angels a full season of improved defensive efficiency %) and if the Angels deep farm system burps up a couple of talents a little early, they could receive a big boost. If Wells has one of his sporadic good years, and if Mike Scioscia can work his magic again where the Angels exceed the expected Pythagorean wins and then they use their money to take overpaid talent off the hands of some teams having disappointing seasons, then bam: 90+ wins.

I also expect the Rangers to regress (and Seattle to improve) based on the Plexiglass Principle. The A’s are just too poor and every free agent that Billy Beane signs never seems to work out. So the division is there for the taking.

But if the Angels' old players suddenly decline like old players do, and they get a couple of key injuries, some pitchers disappoint and they start slow, then they’ll stink.

My own guess for this group is right in the middle of that huge variance of possible outcomes John speaks of. I say 83 wins.

4. Mariners
PECOTA: 70-92
My take: Under

It seems like they can't possibly be as horrifically bad as last year. As shown in Baseball Prospectus 2011, they put up one of the 15 worst offensive seasons since 1954 last season (as measured by True Average). Things can only get better, right? Well, the team didn't really do much to improve the offense during the offseason. They brought in Jack Cust (a Three True Outcomes favorite of mine but not a reliable hitter) to be their designated hitter and catcher Miguel Olivo who, for his career, has an OPS+ of 86, sixteen percent below the league average. On the other hand, it is reasonable to expect that hitters like Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez will see improvement. First baseman Justin Smoak was terrible after coming over in a trade last year but, as a first-year player having to adapt to the big leagues while also adapting to a brand new organization, he can be forgiven for his poor performance. I expect him to at least get on base a little bit more this season. And, of course, the amazing Ichiro is a guarantee to knock 200 hits.

The offense will be a little better but I actually think the pitching will be worse. Behind Cy Young award-winner Felix Hernandez, this rotation looks like crap. Rookie right-hander Michael Pineda ought to be fun to watch but this is also his first taste of the big leagues and so we don't know what to expect. With some regression on the mound balancing out the inevitable offensive improvement, I see them around 65 wins this year.

Jays, Halos, Rays Rekindle Hot Stove Flame

Ever since reading Moneyball back in 2003, I've been interested in following the chess moves of the notably intelligent, crafty GMs in baseball. Right around that same time, teams started hiring so-called whiz kids (young, Ivy League-educated baseball geniuses) to run their teams like Theo Epstein for the Red Sox, Paul DePodesta for the Dodgers, Jon Daniels with the Rangers, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks, and Andrew Friedman for the Tampa Bay Rays. I'm fascinated by these young minds and usually follow their cunning schemes with precise attention, trying to figure out why they took that player or traded that aging slugger.

About a month ago I read a great interview with the Blue Jays' new hot shot general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, which sparked up my interest in that team and the plots Anthopoulos might have in mind to drag them back into contention again in a fiercely competitive AL East division.

Yesterday he made a trade that has the whole baseball analysis world lavishing the young executive with superlative praise. He somehow managed to get rid of arguably the worst contract in baseball, Vernon Wells' $86 million over the next four years, bestowed on the centerfielder by Antopoulos' predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi. Wells did manage to put up a strong showing at the plate last season (127 OPS+) but, going into his age 32 season, he's no longer a very capable centerfielder and yet he's due to collect $21.5 million per year over the next four years. That's more than the Phillies are paying ace Roy Halladay. FanGraphs ran some numbers and calculated that Wells' projected performance should be worth somewhere around $37-38 million over that span, instead he'll be getting $86 million!

Somehow, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim not only agreed to take Wells and his albatross contract off the Jays' hands, they also gave up a couple of pretty good pieces in catcher Mike Napoli and outfielder Juan Rivera. Napoli never really seemed appreciated in Anaheim but he's what I'll call a Bill James Abstract Favorite; a hitter whose assets are his ability to draw lots of walks and hit for power, basically a Three True Outcomes hitter. Focusing on his shitty batting average (.238 last year) or propensity for strikeouts (137 last year in just 510 at-bats) obscures the fact that he's a highly productive hitter because of his power and patience. He should fit right in on this slugging Blue Jays team.

Rivera is really nothing special at this point though he does have a little bit of power (in the game I attended up in Anaheim last summer he hit a moon shot) and maybe the homer-happy Jays can tap into that the way they did with Jose Bautista last year when he exploded for 54 homeruns.

I'm not really sure how Vernon Wells is supposed to fit on this Angels team. He's a lot like Torii Hunter in that he can hit a little bit but not enough to make sense as a corner outfielder, but he's too slow to cover ground in centerfield anymore. Hunter got bumped from center in the middle of the season last year for speedy Peter Bourjos, so I assume Wells will probably split time between left field and DH. Twice already (FanGraphs and Keith Law) somebody has referred to this as a "desperation move" on the Angels' part because they had been chasing after the big free agents all winter and fell short. Taking on an $86 million obligation and an aging mediocre outfielder really doesn't do them much good.

As for the Blue Jays, dumping off that chunky contract from their books puts them in a great position to stack up for serious battle against the AL East elites. Probably not this season, but by 2012 that entire division will feature contenders.

*   *   *
The division also got a whole lot more interesting yesterday when the Rays, who had been seemingly staying quiet all winter and let some great players go, signed two ex-Red Sox stars to bargain bin deals: Johnny Damon for $5.25 million and Manny Ramirez for $2 million. Both guys are approaching 40 but they can both still hit and should be comfortable jumping back into the division where they had the most success. They won a World Series together in 2004 when the Red Sox ended an 86-year drought for the franchise. Now, they'll be playing regularly against a completely revamped Red Sox powerhouse and, of course, the Yankees.

Manny was flaky, unproductive and possibly malingering for a crappy Dodgers team last year but if he's healthy, you can bet he'll still hit. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time and one of my favorite players to watch (not only because he's such a character but because the man can still hit with the best of them). Getting him at $2 million is an absurd bargain.

Damon had a tough time in Detroit's big ballpark last year (8 homers) but he can definitely still get on base and ought to be a tough out in that deep Rays lineup. I predict that these pick-ups won't be quite so big a deal in the AL East race because it's pretty much inevitable that both players will get banged up and spend some time sitting out. But it will sure as hell be fun to watch.

Tuesday's Full Moon Augurs Another No-Hitter

Since we've had three straight no-hitters that have all occurred on the night of the full moon (and because no-hit bids are happening often enough) I am predicting that we will see a no-hitter on Tuesday night August 24th which is a full moon. But who will throw it? I've identified some potential candidates out of the moundsmen who are scheduled to pitch that night. We can look at the batting average (since we're talking about a no-hitter, not necessarily a perfect game) of the opposing team and the batting average allowed and overall dominance of the starting pitcher. Keep in mind he'd also have to be a guy who can go the full 9 innings without getting pulled for running up a high pitch count (although that didn't stop Edwin Jackson two full moons ago when he threw 149 pitches).

We've actually got a few strong candidates pitching that night.

Most likely:
Adam Wainwright vs the Pittsburgh Pirates

By far the strongest candidate to throw a no-no on Tuesday, Wainwright is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league right now. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, ranks behind only Roy Halladay with his 5 complete games, and has the 4th most strikeouts in the league. He is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the second-worst batting average in all of baseball.

Other candidates:

Cole Hamels vs Houston Astros

Hamels had a game against St. Louis last month in which he allowed only 2 hits in 8 innings and before his most recent start (a clunker against the Giants) he had a string of 3 consecutive dominant games, striking out nearly ten per game during that span and pitching into the late innings each time. The Astros as a team are batting .246 on the year (ahead of only Pittsburgh in the NL) even though they've actually played a bit better of late. If it's not a no-hitter, it should still be a pretty dominant game for Cole Hamels.

R.A. Dickey vs Marlins, Josh Johnson vs Mets
The knuckleballing sensation known as R.A. Dickey nearly threw the first no-hitter in Mets history last week, giving up only 1 hit (to the pitcher Cole Hamels) while throwing a complete game. The Marlins rank in the bottom third in the majors with a .255 batting average and have been no-hit already this year but they've got plenty of threats in their lineup, particularly Hanley Ramirez. While Ramirez is having a subpar season by his own standards (117 OPS+ after three seasons above 140) he's still an excellent hitter and, as the leadoff man, will be granted at least 3 chances to hit Dickey's knuckler.

Opposing Dickey and the Mets will be the towering (6 foot 7) ace for the Marlins, Josh Johnson. For most of the year Johnson has been nearly untouchable but he's slowed down recently and was even knocked out of a game in the 4th inning by the Reds. The Mets are pretty bad in the batting average department (.248) and in Johnson's 12 innings against them so far this year they've batted just .182 against him. They've been pretty pathetic at the plate lately, culminating in a weak showing in Pittsburgh. They were held to 1 run on 5 hits earlier today against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Should be an interesting pitcher's duel in Queens.


Gio Gonzalez vs Cleveland Indians
He's prone to wildness so he might rack up a high pitch count but he still has the potential to dominate, especially against a flimsy Cleveland lineup (they were the victims in the famous Armando Galarraga perfect game incident). Opposing hitters are batting just .227 against Gonzalez this year.


Not likely but certainly possible:


Josh Beckett vs Seattle Mariners
Beckett hasn't had a good year at all so far. While his strikeout and walk numbers are fine (8 Ks and 2 walks per 9 IP), he's been shelled for an OPS against of .856. But on this night he'll be facing the absolute worst lineup in major league baseball. The Mariners are hitting a pathetic .238 as a team.

Gavin Floyd vs Baltimore Orioles
I see Floyd as the wild card of the group. He's been hit hard in his past two starts and these Baltimore Orioles he'll be facing are playing much better than the lowly O's I saw earlier this year at Petco. Floyd has occasionally put it all together and pitched some dominant games this year including a game at Wrigley in which he had a no-hitter going with two outs in the seventh inning. I don't think he'll get one against Showalter's boys but he belongs on this list as someone who might do it.

One-In-A-Million Shot Bonus:

Ervin Santana vs Tampa Bay Rays
Nothing against Santana, but this is just kind of a joke because the Rays have already been no-hit twice this year and once last year. In all seriousness though, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that the Tampa Bay Rays, who might be the best team in major league baseball (or, at worst, the second-best behind the Yankees), will go hitless in a game for the third time this season. Santana has three complete games already this year and has been pretty stingy in his two most recent starts, giving up 4 hits or less in both games. It would be a memorable and historic event if the Rays were the victims of a no-hitter again but perhaps not as strange as having four consecutive no-hitters occur on the night of a full moon.

A Memorialable Baseball Day

What a friggin' day of Baseball. As summer's solstice approaches, the advancing 2010 baseball season reached its apex again today. All sorts of colorful varieties of the summer game were displayed radiantly today, the first day of a three-day weekend. When the sun went down, an orange-tinted waning full moon oversaw our game's second perfect pitching outing of the year already.

A brief overview:

-Roy Halladay threw a perfect game tonight against the Marlins in Miami. It's already the 2nd perfect game pitched in the major leagues this season and third in the last two years although it's only the 20th ever, including two that happened in the 1800s. Joe Posnanski perfectly captured the uniqueness of what we've been witnessed.

-The Mets and Brewers played an action-filled ballgame wearing Negro League throwback uniforms. The Mets were the New York Cubans from the 1930s and the Brewers were the Milwaukee Bears circa 1923. In stark contrast to Halladay's gem, both starting pitchers in this game were knocked out before the 4th inning as there was plenty of offense, 14 runs in all including two homers from Corey Hart with the Brewers beating the Mets 8-6. John Axford, sporting a classic handle-bar mustache, closed out the game for the Brewers.

-After seeing their starting pitcher take an A-Rod missile of a line drive off the side of his head (it hit his skull so hard that it bounced almost 300 feet away), the Cleveland Indians stormed back at Yankee Stadium to beat the Bronx Bombers 13-11 sending their fans home disappointed and unhappy.

-Gabe Gross made this ridiculous catch in the Tigers-A's game. Notice how he couldn't stop smiling afterward. This is a kid's game after all.

-After hitting a walk-off grandslam in the bottom of the 10th inning in Anaheim, Kendry Morales jumped on home plate so hard he broke his leg.

-In the only game that my TV let me watch, the Cubs' Carlos Silva, who was literally dumped on the Cubs after embarrassing himself for two years as a horrible waste of money in Seattle, baffled the Cardinals offense with 11 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings. He's now 7-0 on the year. Salvation thy name is Carlos Silva.

And plenty of other fun stuff happened.

The Stanley Cup Finals also began today with a hard-hitting and exciting 6-5 game won by the Chicago Blackhawks. And the Lakers are going to the NBA Finals again to play the Celtics (again). It is a damn good time to be a sports fan.

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 4: AL West

Before we continue our series, I'd like to point out that the baseball blog Wezen-ball has a predictions contest going on where everybody can submit their choices for who will win each division (as well as MVPs, World Series winners and all that good stuff). It's a pretty cool set-up actually with one community spreadsheet where everybody can make their entries and look at who others have picked. I've entered my picks but, with the restraints of making sure every game is accounted for when all the win-loss records are added up, it made things much harder. I tried my best to transcribe the picks I've already made here but some minor adjustments had to be made to their records at times. No biggie. So, we move on to the American League today with possibly the hardest division to predict.

AL West
Take your pick. There are four teams: three of them are poised to enter the playoff picture after spending the last few seasons rebuilding. The other one has won the the last three division titles and 5 out of the last 6. The Angels won 97 games last year and won the division by 10 games over 2nd place Texas, but a look at everyone's Pythagorean records (as listed in Baseball Prospectus 2010) shows a much closer spread:

2009 AL West
Angels 87-75
Rangers 85-77
Mariners 83-79
Athletics 82-80

A five-game spread between first and last place. BP's depth chart page (featuring the PECOTA forecasts I've been referencing in the division previews) shows another close race with the A's and Rangers tying for the lead with 83 wins, Seattle at 82 and the Angels with 78. Again, a five-game spread between the division winner and cellar-dweller. CHONE's projection looks very different, showing the Mariners in last with only 78 wins and the Rangers running away with the division at 86 wins. Here's how I see it all playing out...

1. Athletics
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Over

Similar to the NL West, the division is so ultra-competitive this year that I expect everybody's records to suffer. There will not be a 90-game winner in the AL West this season. Not even 85 wins, I'm predicting the A's to take the division with 84. From top to bottom, their pitching corps looks superb. They've got five above-average starters penciled into the rotation and when (not if) someone gets hurt, there's almost an entire back-up rotation of arms prepared to provide league-average innings. Behind them, Billy Beane has once again assembled what should be one of the league's best bullpens. While Seattle has gotten so much attention for its defensive attributes and the Rangers praise for finally showing they can assemble a pitching staff, the A's still have the best pitching in the division.

Offensively, they're a different story. While there probably won't be any one glaring weakspot in their lineup, nobody is going to mash 30 homers, maybe not even 25. Jack Cust remains their biggest power threat and they've added Kevin Kouzmanoff who, while moving to another park that suppresses offense, will at least be relieved to escape PETCO Park which is by far the worst park in baseball for hitters. Daric Barton will get probably his last chance to show that he can hit and he's looked pretty good in Spring Training. I'm rooting for him to do well but the A's have minor league firstbaseman Chris Carter waiting in the wings who PECOTA thinks can hit 27 homers if he played a full season in the majors this year. One of my favorite players of all time, Eric Chavez, will also get a shot to play some firstbase after missing significant time with various injuries the past few years and there's an outside chance he'll provide some offensive value too. Lately, they've begun to place more emphasis on speed and will have Rajai Davis and Coco Crisp wreaking havoc on the bases. It won't be much, but it will be enough to back up their pitching and win a tight race by a hair.


2. Rangers
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Even
A tough team to project. They should have a very strong bullpen and will definitely put up runs but the rotation, which finally looked good last year, looks very shaky to start the season. I love Rich Harden, he's one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball, but he hasn't reached 150 innings in a season since 2004 and he is supposed to anchor the rotation. Scott Feldman was terrific last year but a regression is expected. Other than that, there's really nothing to get excited about unless they eventually plug either of their two young flamethrowers (Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz) into the starting rotation but they'll probably allow the other guys to crash and burn first.

The offense, which faltered a bit last year (.255 EqA) has much more reason for optimism. A bounceback is expected from Josh Hamilton who suffered a bunch of nagging injuries last year, Ian Kinsler is a beast, Michael Young is consistently around the 200-hit mark, Nelson Cruz exploded last year and should keep it up, Chris Davis is a popular candidate to have a huge year, and they've added Vlad the Impaler. If Vlad stays in the lineup enough to get 500 at-bats this will be one of the best offenses in the game. In this division, though, I peg them for 83 wins.

3. Angels
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over

Reports of the Angels' demise have been overstated. They lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero during the offseason but I think they've found some able replacements. Figgins played a big role atop their lineup last year, getting on base like crazy ahead of their sluggers. Bobby Abreu will still be up at the top of the lineup drawing lots of walks and they still have Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter who were the team's two best hitters (.298 and .296 EqA, respectively) in its offensive resurgence last year. They went out and picked up Hideki Matsui who should get on base plenty and also smack a few homers and perpetual prospect Brandon Wood will finally get an opportunity to play, replacing Figgins at third. The lineup now has less speed but they will still certainly still hit. The main question mark is supposed to be their pitching. Lackey's replacement Joel Piniero actually had about the same value as Lackey did last year (2.7 WARP compared to 3.3) and everybody else from a strong 2009 starting rotation returns. Jered Weaver should continue his ascent and Scott Kazmir/Ervin Santana have the potential to put together good seasons if healthy. The bullpen carries a shaky reputation because they no longer have Francisco Rodriguez pitching the 9th inning and, collectively, the unit got off to a horrible start last year. But, as Baseball Prospectus 2010 points out, they were actually the 2nd-best bullpen in the league from May 1st on. I expect them to be in the mix all season but finish just out of first place, relinquishing their crown. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them hold on to it, though.

4. Mariners
PECOTA: 82-80
My take: Under
The A's and Rangers are organizations stacked with budding young talent that will enable them to be competitive for the long run. The Angels are the perennial division winner trying desperately to maintain their hold on the top spot. The Mariners, on the other hand, have slowly constructed a catapultation device with the aim of flinging themselves up to the top of the division this year ahead of everybody else. They're ready to win now and they may never be quite as ready. A renaissance of defense carried them to 85 wins last year and they were the most active team this past offseason, scooping up a table-setter (Chone Figgins), another ace (Cliff Lee), and an enigmatic slugger (Milton Bradley). Is it enough to win them the division? Probably. But I don't think they'll do it.


I love the moves they've made, Figgins was a perfect pick-up for a team that doesn't get on base and I've always liked Milton Bradley (I look at him as my generation's Dick Allen) but I just don't think it's enough to resurrect the American League's worst offense from 2009.  The combination of Cliff Lee and superstar Felix Hernandez is scary but the rest of the pitching staff is not. The Mariner defense was out of this world last season and it is just for that reason that I expect them to regress a bit in that area this year. Above all, the Mariners are a perfect candidate for what is called the "Plexiglass Principle" which states that a team that significantly improves (or declines) one season has a tendency to bounce back in the opposite direction the year after. Seattle won only 61 games in 2008 and jumped all the way to 85 last year. They'll be a fun team to watch but expect them to bounce back down to earth a bit.