Showing posts with label Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Braves. Show all posts

Monday, April 8, 2013

2013 MLB Season Preview Part 6: NL East

 
The expected ascent of Harper into the Trout-ian stratosphere at age 20 figures to be one of the game's biggest stories this year. (Getty Images.)


1. Nationals
PECOTA: 87 wins
My pick: Over

This 87-win projection is one of the oddest numbers spit out by PECOTA as the consensus among fans and experts is that this is the best all-around team in baseball this year. I'm inclined to agree with the latter as no other team is so well-stocked with talent in every area of the roster (manager included) as this year's Nationals. They won 98 games last year with a good Pythagorean record to back it up (in other words, they weren't especially lucky) and look to have greatly improved in the offseason.
Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, back-to-back #1 picks and two of the planet's true phenoms in any sport, are only now just starting to hit their stride. Harper is an early (and seemingly easy) MVP candidate as he enters just his second season at age 20. Those two are surrounded by an infield of power-hitters who are notably great defensive players, the rotation behind Strasburg is stacked, the bullpen's deep enough to withstand inevitable injuries and/or regression, and oh yeah Bryce Harper could go all Mike Trout on us this year. 90 wins easily, possibly somewhere closer to a 100.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 6: NL East

Watching this guy all year ought to be fun
Finishing up our look at each division as the season starts (for real this time) in Miami tonight.

NL East
Suddenly this division looks a lot like its American League cousin. It will basically be a toss-up between the three top teams and a fourth, the Nationals, should really surprise people. I remain hopeful and optimistic in the chances of my Mets this year, too. Hard to quibble with that lineup of theirs.


1. Miami Marlins
PECOTA: 88 wins
My take: Over

Lots of bright bombast from this newly minted organization with a psychedelic stadium, loud-mouthed manager, and one of the most exciting players in the game signing a big contract. For years I thought this team's crappy on-field decision-makers have cost them wins but Ozzie Guillen has an equal reputation for being a smart tactician and a smartass. Look for him to have a huge impact.

They'll certainly be fun to root against as they'll be pretty damn good and possibly very annoying.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Baseball's Insufflation

Two weeks without any posts. Not a nice way to treat a perfectly good blog.

As I've indicated a few times recently, my life is pretty hectic right now, at least relative to my past periods of prosperous blog posting. In the slivers of free time that I do have, my writing has been confined to notebook scribbles so as to keep my writing game sharp. I had hoped to start a monumental study and breakdown of Ulysses here at this blog by now but I've got a few things I'd like to get out of the way first and they're moving along very slowly.

Three straight weeks of family visitors certainly threw me off too, though it was nice to see familiar faces. As great as Austin has been to me thus far, I haven't made any real friends because I haven't really socialized all that much. Although, in an incredible example of synchronicity, a good friend of mine from San Diego who I had drifted away from in the months before moving to Austin actually relocated at the exact same time and now lives about 10 minutes up the road from me.

The baseball season's progressively dramatic developments have kept me occupied as well. Weeks ago I had drafted a blogpost about the complete lack of drama and close pennant races in baseball at the time and my conclusion was to be that, no matter how bad things look, somebody would inevitably make things interesting for us. Parallel epic collapses by the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves (whose franchise, incidentally, originated in Boston) plus resiliency on the part of the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have created as exciting a final day of the season that we could have ever possibly hoped for.

As I type this, the Wild Card races in both leagues look like this:

AL Wild Card
Red Sox 90-71
Tampa Bay 90-71

NL Wild Card
Braves 89-72
Cardinals 89-72

All four teams play tonight in four separate games and if the results don't yield a clear winner in both instances, we would see an extra one-game playoff tomorrow to decide the winner. Needless to say, it doesn't get any better than this.

For me, the NL race features two teams I don't like at all. The Braves are mortal enemies of the Mets but that doesn't bother as much as the stupidity of their manager, Fredi Gonzalez. One could write a lengthy piece detailing his numerous managerial transgressions throughout the year but it's enough to mention that he blatantly fails to put his best team on the field often and perpetuates the most idiotic bullpen strategies this side of... Tony LaRussa, the Cardinals manager. The Cardinals are no friends to the Mets either but, again, it's the manager that ticks me off the most. Since the Braves are a beaten down, limping team right now I'll prefer to see the Cardinals surpass them so at least they can be a viable contender in the playoffs.

As for the American League, I was sucked into rooting for the Red Sox during their incredible run in 2004 and had been rooting for them in all of their gargantuan battles with the Yankees over the years. That they employ Bill James and generally follow an intelligent, sabermetric approach to building their team has always appealed to me. Ever since reading Moneyball way back in 2003 (if I ever get to see the movie, I'll certainly share my thoughts on it here) I've had a strong fascination with the A's and other teams that employ statistical measures to team-building and the Red Sox certainly brought all that stuff to its highest peaks with their two championships in four years. But lately they've too closely resembled the Yankees and their distasteful tactic of throwing bags of cash at the best players on the open market.


On the other hand, the Rays, with their minuscule budget, have become a Moneyball East type of operation. Except their task is much more daunting having to play in a division with two deep-pocketed powerhouses and even the perpetually competitive Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays have a number of exciting young players (I'm starting to realize Evan Longoria might be my favorite player in the league) and even an eclectic manager.

I would love to see the Rays win, in fact, I'd love to see them win and then carry on to a World Series victory (perhaps a rematch of the 2008 Fall Classic against the Phillies?) but the scenario I most prefer to see would be both the Rays and Red Sox winning today and then playing an epic one-game playoff on Thursday. Same with the Cards and Braves. To nobody's surprise, all four teams have their best pitcher on the mound for today's game. I'll be watching intently and hoping the season drags the excitement out for as long as possible.

Friday, July 29, 2011

The Wave that Washed Your Meals Away

The excitement of the 2011 major league baseball season suddenly burst into supernova recently. It all began late Tuesday night in Atlanta.

After the 3rd inning, the Pirates and Braves were locked in a 3-3 tie. Nobody managed to put across another run for the next 16 innings. They nearly played the equivalent of two full baseball games without scoring a run. I tuned into the MLB.tv feed around the 13th inning and the matchup just seemed far too boring so I skipped to a different game. Once I saw that they were headed to the 16th, I realized this could be something special. The kind of game where managers actually have to start putting their thinking caps on (both skippers confused their thinking caps with dunce caps, though, as evidenced by their long line of stupid maneuvers).

The game got to the bottom of the 19th inning when things finally got interesting. The Braves put two runners aboard with one out. Julio Lugo, who I had only recently realized was still in the majors, stood at third base. The Braves had run out of position players so they let Scott Proctor, a crappy pitcher and an even worse hitter, step to the plate. He managed to make pretty solid contact but he hit a ground ball directly at the third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Lugo took off from third towards home plate and while Alvarez hurled a perfect throw to the catcher I remember thinking that this is one of the things I love to see in baseball, a tense moment with the game on the line and a fielder executing a perfect throw to home plate to keep the game alive.


The throw home was perfect, alright. Pirates catcher Michael McHenry, a minor league scrub acquired from the Red Sox organization after a slew of Pittsburgh catchers started falling apart in succession, received the throw from Alvarez and met the oncoming Lugo a few feet in front of home plate. Lugo was out by a mile and he knew it. He didn't even try to bowl the catcher over or knock the ball out of his glove, he simply executed a feeble slide with a look on his face like he didn't want the catcher to be too rough with him. Perhaps McHenry sensed Lugo's hapnophobia because instead of firmly smacking him with the glove, he waved his arm in the vicinity of Lugo's leg.

Lugo stood up from his slide with his body slumped into disappointment when suddenly the umpire gave the signal "SAFE!" and Lugo quickly touched homeplate. The game was over. And "the umpire" was about to lose his relative anonymity. The world of baseball-watchers exploded in anger. I've never enjoyed following the stream of Twitter messages as much as I did that Tuesday night (after 1 AM, mind you). Everybody had been tuning into the game because of how unusually long it was lasting, it seemed like there was a shot at history being made. Well, it was historic alright. Many people called it the worst call they'd ever seen in a baseball game.

In retrospect, the umpire Jerry Meals apologized and admitted he messed up while some have argued that he may have actually made the correct call. Major League Baseball actually issued a statement saying that Meals screwed it up, but they can't take it back. They won't be bringing the two teams back together to re-do everything. It's in the books. Worst of all for the Pirates, who are contending for the first time in some 19 years, this could be the difference between them going to the postseason or not.

*   *   *

All of that stuff was going on around 2 AM eastern time and so the next day figured to be filled with all kinds of reactions once everyone got to gather their thoughts on the incident. Well, a huge wave of Wednesday baseball action suddenly splashed, overtaking and washing away all the Jerry Meals news that had begun to pile up.

With the trade deadline looming, the newswire had begun to buzz with big news: the St. Louis Cardinals were going to trade their young stud centerfielder, Colby Rasmus. The 24-year-old Rasmus, although a world class talent, had been squabbling with the team's manager last year and it spilled over into this season with Rasmus having a bad year to show for it. It certainly didn't help Rasmus' standing with the Cardinals that his father had the attitude of a big-mouthed little league dad constantly interfering with the team's handling of his son. Better yet, it was the Toronto Blue Jays' shrewd young general manager who was swooping in to grab Rasmus and bring him up to the nest in Toronto along with a bunch of other rejected fledglings.

Before that trade was completed, the news wire blew up again: the New York Mets had reached a deal to send Carlos Beltran, the most coveted trade bait in baseball, to the San Francisco Giants. The rumors about Beltran had been swirling around for a few weeks but suddenly the wind jutted violently like a cold day in the Bay Area and Beltran was gone. But the Mets managed to scoop up the Giants' best pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, in return. (Personally, I'm sad to see Beltran go but glad he's headed to a contender defending their championship. I'll have more to say on Beltran and the Mets soon.)

While baseball peeps were still assimilating these two huge events, an afternoon baseball game in Cleveland between the Angels and Indians suddenly demanded everyone's attention. Angels righthander Ervin Santana was pitching a no-hitter. Once everybody (including me, via my iPhone) managed to tune in, Santana cruised through the last two innings and history was made. Suddenly, nobody gave a crap about Jerry Meals. 

Monday, March 28, 2011

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 3: NL East


I feel the need to emphasize that, with the six-month 162-game marathon of a season, there is so much variability in the performance of baseball teams and the outcome of the season that it's almost fruitless to discuss them like this. But, we baseball fiends like to blabber about it anyway.


I bring this up also because you have to keep in mind that even the highly intricate forecasting system whose win numbers I'm using, PECOTA, has huge variance. The number they present is basically an average but it's to be understood that the end result could easily fluctuate 5-7 games in either direction. I just received my ESPN Magazine in the mail today which features Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projections for each team and they even look very different (the Phillies are projected to win 95 games as opposed to PECOTA projecting 90).

So there's a lot of expected variance inherent in all of this. I'm not pretending to be an oracle, just using the win numbers as a springboard. It's inevitable that somebody will get hurt, somebody will slump badly, somebody will unexpectedly turn in a huge season, and that's the fun of actually watching the games. I can tell you with confidence, though, that the Nationals will suck.

NL East
(note that the PECOTA numbers are as of March 25th, 2011. They might have changed a bit by now.)

1. Phillies
PECOTA:  90-72
My take: Over

Having assembled what might be one of the best pitching rotations of all time, the Phillies will try to prolong their dynasty which has seen them make it as far as the League Championship Series three years in a row and an increase in regular season wins for four straight seasons (89, 92, 93, 97). The only thing that could prevent this team from reaching 100 victories this season will be their rapidly declining lineup. The team scored just 772 runs last year, their fewest since 2002, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard missed time with injuries. Jimmy Rollins is no longer a capable hitter and Raul Ibanez turns 39 years old this summer. Having 22-year-old rookie Domonic Brown, one of the best offensive prospects in baseball, step into the starting lineup certainly helps but he's got big shoes to fill as the departed Jayson Werth was the team's best hitter last year with a 145 OPS+.

If the offense manages to muster just league-average production, this team will still win a ton of games because of the pitching staff. Their #4 starter, Cole Hamels, struck out 211 hitters last year. Roy Oswalt showed us is still an elite pitcher, leading the NL in WHIP, recording 193 strikeouts, a 2.76 ERA, and 6th-place finish in the Cy Young voting. That's the #3 starter. The top two guys are arguably two of the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball.

It's a long season and so many of the stars in this lineup are over 30, but I see them winning at least 95 games and possibly heading to another World Series. If they suffer any long-term injuries, though, this next team is just about ready to usurp their hold on the division.

2. Braves
PECOTA: 87-75
My take: Over

I spoke very highly of the Braves in my preview last season and I think they look great again this year. It's all about the pitching. Tommy Hanson is the ace of the staff already at age 24 and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a Cy Young candidate this year. Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are veteran groundball machines and 25-year-old Jair Jurrjens is an excellent pitcher when healthy. The bullpen looks to be a major strength with the young flame-throwing lefty/righty duo of Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel at the back end.

On offense, right-fielder Jason Heyward played a full season in the majors last year at age 20 and not only held his own but had a pretty damn good season (.393 OBP). The team as a whole can get on base, they were one of the top OBP teams in baseball last year and adding a homerun threat like Dan Uggla (30+ homers each of the last four years) into the mix along with highly-regarded rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman makes this an improved lineup.

The one area of concern might be their defense, especially with Dan Uggla taking over at second base. Chipper Jones isn't the best defensive player and that makes two liabilities in the infield with a predominantly groundball staff. Alex Gonzalez is still a great defensive shortstop though and I think this deep pitching staff will be able to succeed despite their second baseman's Uggla-ness. It'll be another 90 win season and a trip to the playoffs for this improving Braves team.  

3. Marlins
PECOTA: 84-78
My take: Under

Another NL team with a deep rotation, the Marlins will once again have to settle for floating on the peripheries of contention this year because of some weak spots in the lineup. While having Mike Stanton, projected to bash upwards of 30 homeruns, batting behind Hanley Ramirez all year will certainly put some runs up on the board, giving at bats to hitters like Emilio Bonifacio, Donnie Murphy and Matt Dominguez is badly detrimental to the team's success. The same goes for their decision to put Chris Coghlan, a mediocre left fielder, in charge of covering the vast center field pastures in LandShark Stadium (is that really the name of their stadium these days?). The bullpen also looks to be suspect.

A great rotation will make up for this team's shortcomings and keep them a game or two over .500. I expect a big season from Javier Vazquez who clearly doesn't enjoy pitching in the spotlight and should be content to do his duty in front of a mostly empty home ballpark in Miami. Josh Johnson is a perennial Cy Young candidate, he won the ERA title last year, and Ricky Nolasco continues to be unlucky and unheralded while posting great peripherals (4.45 K/BB ratio last season).


Because they always seem to be in the playoff mix even with a low payroll, no fans, and a jerky owner, I usually enjoy seeing this team succeed. But this year I don't think they'll come close to the Braves or Phils and the lowly Mets might even overtake them.



4. Mets
PECOTA:  78-84
My take: Over

The bumbling, clumsy ol' Mets...

As a Mets fan, at least I can say this: it's more fun to root for a team with imperfections. Even after they revamped their front office with some of the best minds in baseball, the Mets are still the butt of everyone's jokes because their owners got burned by the biggest Ponzi scheme in history and now have to borrow money from the league office in order to make payroll. Things don't look so great on the field either. Most projection systems forecast them to finish in fourth place, their rotation looks like crap and they've got a ton of injury risks in the lineup.


There is room for optimism, though. If there are no injuries, this is the best lineup in the whole division. The top seven hitters can all get on base at an above-average clip and even their new second baseman, rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus (whose name is pronounced exactly like the name of Odysseus' swineherd "Eumaeus") is projected for a solid .330 OBP. David Wright is one of the best hitters in baseball and, when he's at full strength, so is Carlos Beltran though nobody really knows what to expect from him this year after a bunch of knee injuries. Jason Bay had a power-outage (career-low .402 slugging) last year before the lights went out in his skull after smashing it into a fence. He's another roll of the dice. When healthy he's a great hitter. Same with Jose Reyes. With good health, the offense alone could push this team over .500.

The pitching looks to be a fun adventure ride. Each of the top three starters relies exclusively on one pitch. Mike Pelfrey has a sinker, Jon Niese a cutter, and R.A. Dickey a whacky knuckleball. If they could combine those three pitches into a single repetoire, they'd get a lot of people out. Otherwise, they'll struggle to post league average numbers. The rest of the staff doesn't look so good either, although I do think Chris Young can be a very effective pitcher if he's healthy. In the bullpen, they've got so many new faces that I really don't know what to expect.

Every aspect of this team is pretty nebulous, really, nobody knows what to expect out of them this year. It does seem like their ceiling is no more than probably 85 or 86 wins but they could just as easily win 70 games and it wouldn't shock anyone. I think they'll provide plenty of excitement as well as frustration on the way to an 83-win season. And that should be considered a success.

5. Nationals
PECOTA: 71-91
My take: Under

Two Zimmermans and a Werth won't be enough to make this team reach 70 victories. The lineup is bereft of OBP and the pitching staff, aside from Jordan Zimmermann, looks like vintage Pittsburgh Pirates material. I do have a soft spot for Livan Hernandez because his strike zone craftwork is so fun to watch but he got very lucky last year with balls in play and is a good candidate to implode this year. They've got some promising prospects, sure, but they won't be playing any seriously competitive baseball until 2012 at the earliest.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Warmups: Stadium Stories

Baseball season is on its way. Opening Day is a week from tomorrow and, before I start posting my previews for each division, I'd like to first get a little warmed up for baseball writing with a few posts on various things related to baseball. First up is an inventory of all the major league ballparks I've ever been to.

Doubtless, there are better places to spend summer days, summer nights, than in ballparks. Doubtless.
Nevertheless, decades after a person has stopped collecting bubble-gum cards, he can still discover himself collecting ballparks. And not just the stadiums, but their surrounding neighborhoods, their smells, their special seasons and moods.--Thomas Boswell, How Life Imitates the World Series
1. Yankee Stadium
It was here that I attended my first baseball game ever on July 21, 1995. My brother John brought me to a game as a birthday present (it was a few days after my 10th birthday) and the annual outing to Yankee Stadium would become a birthday staple over the next few years until I defiantly renounced my Yankee fanhood right around the same time everybody started jumping on the bandwagon. My favorite player growing up was Jim Leyrtiz, the bat-spinning back-up catcher and first baseman (who was obscure in those days but went on to become a World Series hero). Each year, John would choose the perfect game to attend, somehow always knowing which games Leyritz would be starting. That first game in '95 Leyritz actually started at first base against the Texas Rangers' lefty Kenny Rogers (Leyritz was replaced by Don Mattingly later in the game). The Yanks won 8-3 and the winning pitcher was Dave Eiland who went on to become the Yankees' pitching coach for these last three years.

I saw a bunch of games here over the years with various people: John and I went to Game 1 of the World Series in 1996 when the Yanks got shellacked by the Braves (though I got to see Jim Leyritz catch the whole game); during the summer of my first job in 1999, working as a messenger for the company both my mom and John worked for in lower Manhattan, a co-worker named Lou decided one day that we should skip work and go watch an afternoon Yanks-Blue Jays game from the bleachers; Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe brought me along to an ALDS game against the Tigers in 2006; and I got to say my last goodbyes in an early season game against the Rays in 2008, right before moving to San Diego (that was the Yankees' last season in the old stadium).

2. Veterans Stadium
My Aunt Jeanie brought my brother Billy and I to a game here in '95 or '96. It was Billy's first game ever and it was the Phillies against the San Diego Padres, an interesting augur because ten years later Billy would take up residence across the country in San Diego (which led to me moving out there too). That night, Billy caught a foul ball in his hat (!) that was lined off the bat of Pads' outfielder Melvin Nieves. I remember the stadium was enormous and imposing.

3. Shea Stadium
Shea Stadium in 2003
Although I can't recall my very first visit to this lovable old dump, it was here that I would watch more games than anyplace else over the years. After the Yankees started throwing money around (and dumping players like my old fave Jim Leyritz who went on to lead the Padres to the World Series) I grew sick of them and jumped on the bandwagon of my father's team: the Mets. This was during the years of Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura so it was a fun team to follow. I've been a diehard Mets fan ever since and I get maudlin and misty-eyed thinking about this place because, even though the building was a dump, I had so many great memories here. A few that stick out in my mind are these:
  • A Saturday night interleague game against the Angels (John's favorite team) in which the Mets rallied twice in the late innings and won. Marlon Anderson tied the game in the bottom of the ninth with an inside-the-park homerun (!) against current Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. After surrendering a run in the top of the 10th, the Mets put two guys on base with their best hitters, Carlos Beltran and Piazza, coming up. They both struck out. It was all up to Cliff Floyd. He worked a full count, fouled off about a hundred pitches, then struck a monster homerun to win the game. Floyd was hurt so much in his career and is retired now but he provided a bunch of great evenings for Mets fans during a two year stretch. This was probably the most exciting game I've ever witnessed in person. I was sitting with John and his wife Kristina in one of my favorite spots in Shea: near the foul pole in fair territory out in left field.
  • A Friday night game against the Phillies that was rain-delayed for about 3 or 4 hours before getting under way. I was at the game with John, Kristina, and my little sister Emily. John and Kristina left early because it was late, wet, and freezing. Me and Em stayed til the bitter end and got to see Carlos Beltran launch a walk-off bomb which had us jumping up and down and screaming with our cheap ponchos on.
  • Witnessed the last two games in Montreal Expos history as they played two meaningless matches against the Mets on the last weekend of the season at Shea. The Mets and Expos both stunk that year and I lucked into having tickets to both of the last two games fall into my lap. For the final game, I remember Todd Zeile started at catcher for the Mets in his own last game before retirement. I watched that last game with three of my siblings on a crisp, sunny October afternoon as the Mets won 8-1 and the Montreal squad tossed a bunch of memorabilia to a group of devoted fans gathered above their dugout.
4. Stade Olympique
When it first looked like the Montreal Expos were going to be no more (the league was seriously talking about cutting two teams, they'd eventually settle for moving the Expos to Washington), my brother John, ever ambitious to go on a baseball trip (a trait he instilled in me, thankfully) drove us up to Montreal for a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Expos were a pretty good team in those days and we saw two entertaining games in that funky old stadium including a Sunday afternoon battle won on a walk-off smite by the 'Spos.

5. Toronto's SkyDome *
I'll use a * to indicate the stadiums I visited without getting to see a game there. My old Staten Island pal Joe and his mom brought me up to Toronto and Niagra Falls one year and we stayed in the hotel inside of the Blue Jays' home stadium. It was the offseason, though, so nothing was going on but we did sleep within the stadium and could see everything just outside our window.

6. Turner Field
Went to a game here while visiting my sister Laurie in Atlanta years back. I don't remember much about the game except that we sat in dead center, right next to the Braves bullpen (which has three mounds) and a few relievers, Paul Byrd chiefly among them, threw unopened sunflower seed packs to me and Billy after the game.

7. PNC Park
Another weekend baseball roadtrip with brother John. It was a beautiful, scenic drive through Pennsylvania and the stadium is one of the nicest I've ever seen, situated right at the intersection of Pittsburgh's three rivers. The Pirates played the Dodgers in a couple of forgettable games but the beauty of the stadium and the city sticks out in my mind the most. After the first game there was a fireworks show that was surreal---it incorporated not only the three yellow bridges beyond the outfield wall, but even the skyscrapers across the river. Best fireworks show I've ever seen.

8. Citizens Bank Park
When it first opened I took the train one day by myself (I was 18) and watched a game between the Phils and Tigers. The Tigers were atrocious in those days and the Phillies killed them. Over the years, I went to a handful of games here with my brother James and his three sons. In a homerun derby type of game against the Brewers, the guy sitting directly next to us caught a homerun on a line-drive (and we were in the second deck).


9. U.S. Cellular Field (aka new Comiskey Park)
When my brother Billy finished Navy bootcamp in June 2006, my whole family went over to Chicago for the graduation ceremony. After seeing him for a very short time, we had the whole night to ourselves in Chicago. Of course, I wanted to go see a baseball game and the Dodgers were in town for an interleague game with the Sox. Unfortunately, nobody in my family would join me but I took up my dad's offer to drop me off in the South Side and went to the game by myself. It was a lovely June evening and they were commemorating the 1959 World Series between the Sox and Dodgers. The Pale Hose won behind a great game from Mark Buehrle and I somehow ended up with a White Sox towel and then a White Sox credit card which I used for a few years.


10. Wrigley Field *
The next day after the White Sox game, my dad and I went to Wrigley and took a guided tour of the whole stadium. Great experience and, interestingly enough, the Cubbies were in New York playing the Yankees at the time. When I passed through Chicago on my way to California in the summer of '08, my brother Billy and I walked a lap or two around the outside of the stadium while the Cubbies were playing in...San Diego.

11. Petco Park
Oh Petco, how I love thee. After my first visit in 2006 (a memorably explosive game against the Braves) for my 21st birthday, I saw probably 25 games there over the next four years. I absolutely love this place and have so many good memories from there. Thankfully, many of them are preserved on this very blog but I really, really miss going to games there and hopefully will be back in San Diego one day. When I first moved there I got to live my dream: I was living in a rinky-dink studio apartment only two miles from the stadium so, on more than one occasion, I walked from my house to a baseball game. I could go on forever about this place but I'll stop now.

12. Fenway Park
First, did a stadium tour in the summer of 2007 while in Boston for my cousin Mary's wedding. Then, less than a year later, spent a weekend with Mary and her husband and they took me to a game. We sat out in the bleachers and watched the Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers trade bombs all day. The Sox won 11-7. I've been itching to get back there ever since.

13. Miller Park
During the 2008 cross-country road trip, one of the main stops was in Milwaukee so we could see a baseball game. They played the Arizona Diamondbacks with the roof closed (it was raining outside) and smoked 'em. After the game, Billy and I got to walk along the field because it was Senior Citizens Day and the elderly couple seated next to us said "come with us, you can pretend we're your parents." The people of Milwaukee are great.

14. AT&T Park
Another blurry photo from my clunky old camera.
In August of 2008 I visited San Francisco to look at a grad school I planned to attend, the California Institute of Integral Studies. The school was nice although far too expensive for me but I did get to go see a game while up there. It was an absolutely frigid, cloudy night in August and the Giants played the Braves in a meaningless game when both teams were out of the race. Yet, the stadium was packed and rowdy. This was a rare instance where I didn't stay for the entire game because I was just too cold, didn't prepare for winter weather in August.


15. Citi Field *
Got to do a full tour of the stadium, including dugout and clubhouses while the teams were present. Even spoke to Howard Johnson while he was on an elliptical machine. Did it all while posing as an electrician, hard hat and everything. Amazing and memorable experience, though I won't reveal how I ended up having the opportunity. Don't want to get anyone in trouble.


16. Angel Stadium
Fun, rowdy place. Went there this past summer with my girlfriend for my 25th birthday. Fun time though it was sweltering until the sun finally went down. We sat in the absolute last row of the stadium along the first base line and yet the view of the field was actually pretty good. Our view of the mountain range beyond the stadium was even better.

17. Dodger Stadium
An absolutely gorgeous stadium that seems like it was plopped down in the middle of a dense verdant forest. Went with bro Billy for a September matchup between the classic old New York rivals, the Giants and Dodgers. Sat very close to the field but was annoyed most of the people around us didn't seem to care that much about the game. When the game was over we got to walk right onto the outfield grass and watch a fireworks show, though.

Now that I've listed everything, I realize that during my three years living in California I went to every major league baseball stadium in the state except the Coliseum in Oakland. It's known as one of the worst facilities in professional sports but still, the A's are one of my favorite teams. All the more reason to go back there.

I'm currently situated in the middle of Texas, at least three hours from a pro baseball team but, as a diehard seamhead, I will definitely be taking the long drive to both Houston and Arlington to add those to my list.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Brief thoughts on the MLB Playoffs

Roy Halladay pitched a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NL Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds today. 'Twas the first postseason no-hitter since Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. In fact, Larsen and Halladay are the only pitchers to ever throw a postseason no-hitter in the entire history of baseball.

This is stunning. We've witnessed history. Though, sadly, I still haven't witnessed it yet because I'm currently watching a DVR recording of the game and I'm only in the 2nd inning.

After a long, fun, exciting and eventful weekend in San Francisco, I haven't had the chance to sit down and write an MLB postseason preview and now a couple of games have already been played. I'm unhappy with myself but, since I didn't get home until Monday night, I really haven't had a chance to analyze the postseason matchups as much as I'd like to. I haven't even been able to read any of my favorite writers' playoff previews.

But I feel the need to say something about it. After all, I've already written so much about baseball on this blog that I can't just neglect to offer some predictions on the final deciding games of the season.

So, here are some thoughts on the first round matchups. (Unfortunately, they're a bit tainted by the timing of this post.)

AL Division Series

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers
An interesting matchup between two very different teams. The Rays work the count, the Rangers hack the ball all over the place. Cliff Lee's dominance today portends disaster for the Rays as they'll surely have to get through him in another start if they are to win this series. The Rays haven't gotten much from their #2 and 3 starters down the stretch and, while I picked Tampa Bay in the preseason to play against the Phillies in the World Series, I think the Rangers will knock them out in the first round with their extremely powerful and deep lineup.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins
This is a very familiar first round matchup. Previously (in 2003, 2004, and last year) the Twins didn't put up much of a fight against a powerhouse Yankee squad but now the Twins have home field advantage throughout the series and they've also got a much stronger lineup than they had in those days. They'll face a mediocre Yankee pitching staff led by workhorse lefty C.C. Sabathia (134 ERA+) with the same old stalwart Mariano Rivera at the back end. I like this Twins team very much and I think they'll push through the Yanks on their way to their first World Series in 19 years.


NL Division Series

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
I cheated by watching Roy Halladay's no-no already but...I'll take the Phillies. With Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt (three guys who could each be the ace of any major league team), nobody will beat this team. Their lineup is deep, powerful, patient and rugged; they've all been through this before. The Reds have a talented ball club and one of the best hitters in baseball (Joey Votto) but this might even be a sweep for the Phils. Yeah, I'll go with a sweep.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
Sigh...poor Padres. It's amazing that, completely unrelated to their final weekend series to decide the NL West, I found myself in San Francisco for the weekend. A blessing, really, although I didn't get to go see any of the games since they were all completely sold out, standing-room included. It's nice that the Padres made the 162nd game an interesting one but (perhaps this reveals that I'm not a true Padres fan), I think the Giants will be a much more fun team to watch in the postseason. Tim Lincecum alone makes this team a fun one to watch. I rooted for the Padres all year (and went to more of their games than I've ever gone to see any team in my life) but this San Francisco squad belongs in the playoffs. Their pitching is just ridiculously good and their lineup is pretty solid. And the fans actually care, in fact the city was going wild after the Giants won on Sunday. People were driving around beeping their horns and waving flags, excited orange-clad college girls roamed the streets, and I caught a glimpse of a Spanish-language news channel covering the festivities. It's a big deal for the city. San Diego didn't seem to give a shit about the Padres, sadly.

I think this will be the real "wild card" of the postseason and fittingly it's the Wild Card-winning Braves who are involved. This looks like a great matchup to me and I look for an exciting, back-and-forth series that goes the full five games. Jason Heyward will probably do something awesome, we'll undoubtedly have some great pitcher's duels with guys like Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain, Lincecum, Tim Hudson, and even rookie Madison Bumgarner on the mound. It's really gonna be fun. In the end, I'll take the Braves to go to the NLCS for a division rival battle with the Phillies.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

MLB 2010 Midseason Thoughts: National League

Standings as of Saturday morning July 10th, 2010.


NL West
San Diego  --
Colorado  2
Los Angeles 2
San Francisco  5
Arizona  17.5

I like the Padres, I go to many of their games (eight this year so far, two in the past two weeks), and I've written about them a bunch of times here already. I'm very happy to see them in first place but as I've mentioned before, the Rockies and Dodgers have really started to play better after slow starts and they've been biting at the Pads' heels for weeks. The question is: are the Padres truly good enough to win this division? With their extremely pitcher-friendly home ballpark, there's been some confusion about the overall quality of this Padre team. Their pitching has been great, but some silly people discredit that as a park illusion (even though their ERA in away games is the best in the majors) and, big ballpark or not, nobody believes in their offense. The park-adjusted statistics (TrueAverage and OPS+) do show that they've got a pretty weak offensive attack with Adrian Gonzalez (.324 TAv) and Nick Hundley (.271 TAv) being the only above-average hitting regulars. Away from the wide expanses of Petco Park, the team hasn't hit very well at all but with their undeniably awesome pitching they've managed to amass the best road record in the National League.

And the offense has actually performed pretty well at home while the pitching has been great:

4.41 runs scored per game at home
3.17 runs allowed per game at home

They are a team of stellar pitching (led by burgeoning rookie Mat Latos in the rotation and a historically great bullpen) and a just-good-enough offense. It's basically Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys who "get the job done." Early in the season it looked like Chase Headley was going to finally bust out as a high-caliber player but he's really slowed down and currently sits at a pretty weak .259 TAv. Thankfully, Nick Hundley has emerged as a good hitter and, despite limited playing time so far, I'm liking what I see from outfielder Aaron Cunningham.

I had great seats for a Padres-Rockies game last week and saw a nice duel between Pads' lefty Wade LeBlanc and Rox righty Jason Hammel. Aside from an extremely impressive homerun launched over the fence in the deepest part of the yard by redhot youngster Carlos Gonzalez, LeBlanc didn't allow much and pitched a great game but it was blown open by the long-ball serving ways of San Diego reliever Edward Mujica. Colorado looked strong and they took 2 out of 3 in that series without their best player (Troy Tulowitzki). The two teams had a great battle in Colorado last night and they're in a close game right now as I type this. Look for a very entertaining race to the finish line between these two teams over the next three months. Obviously I'll be rooting for the Padres.

While I picked the Dodgers to win the division in my preseason picks, their erratic play has me questioning whether they'll even stay in the mix much longer.

NL Central
Cincinnati  --
St. Louis    2
Chicago   10.5
Milwaukee  10.5
Houston   13.5
Pittsburgh   18

Oh boy was I ever wrong about the Brewers. I feel bad for the Milwaukee fans devoting their time, energy, attention, and emotion to this team. On the other hand, the success of the team on the Ohio River in Cincinnati is undoubtedly for real. Their lineup is very deep, especially with Scott Rolen recapturing his glory days (.306 TAv). Joey Votto (.337 TAv, 22 HRs) is having a huge year, Brandon Phillips is having his typical good year, and I think you can expect Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce to continue to get better as the season goes on. They've got talented young pitchers up the wazoo (rookie Travis Wood almost threw a perfect game in Philadelphia today) and I don't think even the clumsy ineptitude of toothpick-chewing Dusty Baker can sink this cruising ship.

On the other hand, did anybody see the ending of that Rockies-Cardinals game the other night? The Rox pulled a miracle comeback, scoring 9 runs in the 9th inning while down by 6 but what in the hell was Tony La Russa thinking playing his outfielders so deep? Yet another example of TLR overmanaging to the detriment of the team. Check out the highlights, it was a 9-7 game with 2 outs and a runner on third, Carlos Gonzalez batting. That run at third was meaningless, the pitcher had to simply get Gonzalez out to win the game. Gonzalez stroked a line drive to right field that would've normally been hit directly at the right fielder but Randy Winn was playing as far back as the warning track. I believe this is called "no doubles" defense but who cares about a double in that situation? It looked like the outfielders were positioned there to be ready to retrieve a homerun from over the fence...which is just insane! La Russa was also largely blamed for (twice in one game) losing that extremely long game to the Mets earlier this season. The Cards are supposed to be the favorites to win this division, their rotation is superb (2nd best ERA behind the Padres), and the lineup is solid but I wouldn't be surprised to see La Russa screw up a few more tight games and lose this division by one or two games in the end.

And I'm amazed the Pirates have played bad enough to fall below the Astros. The Astros are pathetic.

NL East
Atlanta   --
New York  4
Philadelphia  5.5
Florida   10
Washington   12.5

Tim Hudson has been the surprise ace (2.44 ERA) of a strong Atlanta pitching staff and the depth of offensive production they've had is staggering. They have an unbelievable ten (!) hitters with a True Average of at least .270. Nine guys have at least a .280 TAv. Five (!) hitters have at least a .290. I think it's clear that they've got a strong hold on the #1 spot atop this division but don't count the Mets and Phillies out. The 2nd place team here will probably take the Wild Card.

I've been pleasantly surprised with this Mets team all season long. As good as that Braves offense is, the Mets are still right next to them in overall True Average. David Wright has regained his status as the Metsiah. His True Average of .326 leads all major league third basemen, a serious feat considering the next closest is Evan Longoria at .313. Wright also leads all 3B in VORP and is 7th in all of baseball by that stat. Angel Pagan has turned into a nifty player, Jose Reyes is getting his mojo back, Jason Bay hasn't hit homers but is still producing (.293 TAv), and although he's slowed down as of late I still trust in what Ike Davis can do. Don't forget about Carlos Beltran! I worried about the rotation coming into this season but Mike Pelfrey has established himself as a force to be reckoned with after adding a splitter to his arsenal while Johan Santana is showing signs of coming out of his weird slump (which was apparently due to tipping off his vaunted changeup), Jonathon Niese is becoming established as a consistent starter (.541 SNWP or Support-Neutral Winning Percentage), and R.A. Dickey has successfully been a big hairy knuckleballer...what's more fun than that?

The Mets bullpen is what worries me. Are Elmer Dessens and Fernando Nieve reliable? Maybe for now, but I'd be pulling my hair out if they were protecting leads late in the season in a pennant race. Although Rob Neyer sees no discernible difference in his peripheral numbers, K-Rod is worrisome. It'd be fun if the Mets could fight their way to the top and knock off the Braves or beat out the Phillies for the Wild Card but it's easy to foresee some big late game collapses by that Met bullpen.

NL MVP thus far: Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
The San Diego star has had yet another huge season batting in the middle of a lineup without any other major threat (see above) and playing half his games in the worst hitter's park in the majors. Taking a look at his park-adjusted numbers at Baseball Prospectus' site (scroll to the Davenport Translations), Adrian would have 38 homeruns right now if he were in a normal park. The major league leader has just 24. Look at his road numbers for crying out loud: .353/.410/.660 AVG/OBP/SLG. 

NL Cy Young thus far: Josh Johnson, Marlins
There are a few guys in the National League having great pitching seasons. The most talked about is probably Ubaldo Jimenez, but Roy Halladay is having another great year, so is Adam Wainwright and even Mat Latos. Josh Johnson has been better than all of them. His 1.70 ERA is the best in baseball (so is his 1.84 Runs Allowed), he has the most Quality Starts, the best opponents OPS, and he's a hundreth of a point behind Cliff Lee for best WHIP all while throwing more innings than all but five pitchers in the NL. Looking at more advanced stats, he currently leads all major league pitchers in Wins Above Replacement, Support-Neutral Win Percentage, and ERA+. His stature in that last mark is just insane, at 246 it means he's prevented runs at a rate 146-percent better than the league at this point (that number also adjusts for any advantage he may get from his home ballpark). The last pitcher to be in that territory was vintage Pedro. Keep watching!

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 3: NL East

NL East
Found a cool article over at Baseball Analysts showing the spread of different statistical forecasting systems and how they predict each division to play out. My assessment of the National League East  is right along the lines of what the forecasting systems predict.

1. Phillies
PECOTA: 90-72
My take: Over
They won 93 games and the National League pennant last year playing with a bad bullpen and a so-so starting rotation. And, according to Baseball Prospectus' WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) stat, Jimmy Rollins was less than half as valuable as he was in 2008 (2.5 wins down from 5.9 the year before). PECOTA forecasts a bounce back season from Rollins (a .284/.342/.467 batting line) and they have upgraded their only real glaring offensive hole at thirdbase, signing Placido Polanco to replace punchless Pedro Feliz. They didn't have Cliff Lee for a full season last year but now they'll have an even better pitcher, possibly the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay presumably for the whole season (pending an injury of course but he's been extremely durable). With Halladay and another bounce-back candidate in Cole Hamels (horrible luck last season) atop a rotation that also features stalwart moundsman Joe Blanton and lefty J.A. Happ, they should be able to match-up with just about anybody. The bullpen was a nightmare last season but it's hard to imagine they'll keep letting Brad Lidge take the ball in the 9th inning if he continues to suck. In the end, I see them matching last year's 93 wins and returning to the NL Championship. And they just might face these guys:

2. Braves
PECOTA: 86-76
My take: Over
I've thought about this team alot lately. They're a popular pick to dethrone the Phillies and deliver Bobby Cox a division title in his final season in the dugout and the more I read about this team, ponder them, and look over their projections, the more I like them. First off, they had terrific pitching last year. By FIP or Fielding-Independent Pitching (a stat that filters out the defense's contribution to pitching performance) they were the best team in all of baseball. They traded away Javier Vazquez who was great for them last year but the rotation is still loaded. Jair Jurrjens (what a wonderful name) has established himself as an ace and they'll have a full season of Tommy Hanson, their best pitching prospect whom PECOTA projects to have a 3.39 ERA in 192 innings this year. They lost some important bullpen contributors in Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano but their replacements (Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito) should step in ably and they still have the bespectacled submariner from down under, Peter Moylan.
The lineup doesn't seem to have any weaknesses (unless Troy Glaus gets hurt or doesn't hit), Baseball Prospectus' #2 prospect Jason Heyward is stepping into the mix this year at age 20, and they've even got a nice-looking bench. Because of all that, they are my pick for the NL Wild Card and I know they will provide many exciting games playing against the Phils who won't relinquish their crown without a fight. I'll say: Phillies 93 wins, Braves 92.

3. Marlins
PECOTA: 80-82
My take: Over
I guess it's about time I divulge my rooting interests. Well, it's complicated. I've already mentioned my proximity to the place where the Padres play their baseball games and I do like to see them succeed. At heart I'm a Mets fan but I also consider myself a serious fan of the Oakland Athletics (mainly because of Billy Beane) and I root for the Red Sox as well as the Padres. The pattern (aside from the Mets) is an interest in the teams that highly value sabermetrics and objective analysis and use that as a main tool in team planning and game strategy. The Marlins do not have a reputation for relying or emphasizing statistics in their evaluations of players and decision-making but, as a team with a cheap douchebag owner that often has to let its expensive star players leave (Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, AJ Burnett), playing in a football stadium where nobody comes to see their games, they nevertheless seem to stay in the mix every single year. I find it hard not to like them because, despite their disadvantages, the people in the front office seem to know what they're doing. 

They feature perhaps the most exciting player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez as well as a few sluggers in Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and Cody Ross (a 5-foot-9 extremely rare lefty-throwing/righty-hitting outfielder whose main strength is his popgun homerun swing) in a what could be a pretty strong lineup with sophomore sensation Chris Coghlan leading off. They scored 4.95 runs per game when he batted leadoff last year (106 games)--a rate that would've been 3rd in the NL if he'd been penciled in there all year. The rotation is led by two 27-year-olds coming into their prime: certified ace Josh Johnson and the extremely underrated Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco had a fluky year last year, he struck out 195 while only walking 44 (only two NL pitchers had a better ratio) but ended up with a 5.06 ERA and had to spend some time in the minors to collect himself. I expect him to have a huge year in 2010 and help lead the Marlins to be a factor in the annual late-season Wild Card chase, falling short to stronger teams like the Braves and Rockies in the end.


4. Mets
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Even
Ah, the Mets. The team of my youth, the team I used to go see at Shea Stadium a dozen times a year back when things looked promising for their future. Now they're once again a laughingstock. As indicated in Baseball Prospectus 2010, they spent $43 million dollars (35% of their payroll!) on players who sat out with injuries last season. They're already starting off this season next week with their starting centerfielder, shortstop, and firstbaseman all on the shelf and even with those guys in the lineup they're not projected to do well anyway because of a terrible pitching staff. It's pretty sad, although such a state of crapitude seems to be the overlying theme for the Mets in their history. Steve Phillips then Jim Duquette. Now, Omar Minaya has brought us here. Where are we? Well, some scattered remains of a once-hopeful contender can be seen in the rubbish: an ace (Johan Santana), a duo of young superstars (Wright and Reyes), a highly-paid Hall of Fame centerfielder (Carlos Beltran), some prospects-turned-projects (John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey). Throw in Jason Bay to knock in a few runs and this might be a playoff contender, but half or all of those guys might get hurt and perpetuate the New York City tabloid circus. I'm with PECOTA, although it wouldn't surprise me to see them around the 80-82 record CHONE predicts for them. With some luck they'll be in the playoff mix but I imagine the baseball gods will avoid coming anywhere near this dung heap.

5. Nationals
PECOTA: 74-88
My take: Even
They're inching closer toward respectability. They only won 59 games last year but their run totals suggested they were closer to a 70-win team and such huge discrepancies don't tend to carry over from one year to the next. The Nats are led by a legitimately good offense with Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman both good for 30+ homeruns and Josh Willingham offering solid production. But it just about ends there. Their pitching is absolutely putrid. They tried 30 different pitchers last year and gave up 56 more runs than any other team in the NL. Aside from Mound Messiah Stephen Strasburg who should be playing for them at some point this season, their only bright spot is supposed to be John Lannan, the guy who struck out fewer batters per 9 innings than any other qualified pitcher last year (162 innings needed to qualify).
Their offense will win them some games before the Strasburg Era officially begins and then it's all chaos from there.