MLB 2016 Predictions

MLB teams are as tightly clustered as ever. (art by Chenglor55)

Predicting baseball has become harder than ever. This is a good thing. It's more fun to watch it all unfold when you have no idea which team might suddenly start firing on all cylinders and plow through everyone.

Trying to predict what the final results will be in six months from now, with so many variables in between, is also a fool's errand. But we do it because it's fun to talk about, read about, and write about baseball.

What I've gathered here are more like expectations than predictions. A key part of this, though, is that after doing so many of these over the years, it is not just an expectation but a certainty that some of these predictions will be very, very wrong. There will be injuries, there will be sudden performance dropoffs, there will be midseason trades that transform mediocre teams into contenders, there will be breakout stars and broken legs and torn UCLs. There will be lots of unforeseen events between now and October.

But this is how we like to talk about baseball when the season starts. We make predictions.

As usual, I'm starting off with Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, noting the PECOTA win projection for each team and then choosing an over/under on that number. I will also rank the teams in each division and pick two Wild Card teams in each league.


First, a quick word on the difference in expectations between the two leagues.

MLB 2015 Predictions, Part 2: American League

Mookie Betts. Familiarize yourself. Say it over and over again. Mookie Betts. [AP photo]

Continuing along, a bit late, with my predictions for the new baseball season, using the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for the 2015 season. Normally I like to get these out of the way before the season starts, but it's been an extremely busy time for me lately. Mostly because of this. (Once again, the win numbers at BP have inevitably changed slightly since I captured them here, they remain in flux as the season goes on.)

The American League saw so many big moves made over the winter that it's harder than ever to determine with any confidence how things may take shape. If every team had full health all around, there would likely be extreme parity in the AL with lots of teams finishing with win totals in the mid-80s. Out of 15 teams, I count only 3 that are good bets to be really bad: Twins, Astros, Rangers. Every other AL team expects to fight for a playoff spot. Every one of them is also constructed with obvious flaws or severely lopsided rosters.

AL East
These division standings could end up being jumbled into any combination imaginable and we oughtn't be surprised. The Rays and Yankees are most likely going to have down years, but both have enough talent on hand to conceivably compete, while the other three all have playoff aspirations.

1. Blue Jays
PECOTA: 80 wins
My pick: Over

With their best pitcher, Marcus Stroman, now out for the year with a torn ACL, I can't say that I've got a ton of confidence in this pick. But the addition of catcher Russell Martin alone makes the Jays a much better team and they were in the playoff race pretty much all of last season, only a terrible month of August (9-17 and outscored 132 to 86) knocked them out. Adding third baseman Josh Donaldson, one of the game's best all-around players the past two seasons (14.1 total fWAR, behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen) to an already powerful lineup certainly helps too.

Just like the Red Sox, the Jays are expected to have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the game, but the pitching, which features two late-career vets and three youngsters, has lots of question marks. Can R.A. Dickey harness his knuckleball well enough to pitch more like an above average starter than an amusing sideshow? Will 24-year-old Drew Hutchinson build on his solid first full season in 2014? Can the kids (Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, both 22) handle a full season of pitching for a contending big league team?

It's a top-heavy roster and the bottom has enough youth for some breakout potential so there's plenty of reason for optimism. With the Royals ending their playoff drought last year, the longest streak of missing the postseason now belongs to the Blue Jays. I don't think that streak will carry much further.

2014 MLB Predictions, Part 1: American League

Tampa Bay's ace David Price will lead my World Series pick.

The new baseball season is suddenly upon us. Things are slated to begin a bit earlier than usual this year as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will play the opening games of the regular season this weekend on the other side of the planet in Australia. Following that, Spring Training will awkwardly continue for another week before the rest of the teams kick off their season.

Here in Austin, I'll spend the next week or so hastily packing up to move into a new apartment with my girlfriend. Should be an exciting, hectic, and memorable time which will be almost immediately followed by a two-week trip to the Iberian Peninsula.

All of which is to say: I don't quite have the time to write as thorough an MLB preview as I had been doing for the previous 4 years. So I'll keep things as brief as I can this time around.

As always, I will use the season projections provided by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system as a baseline and determine whether I think each team will finish above or below that baseline. These predictions are not all that serious, I wouldn't bet on most of them (the last four years my success rate is below 40% with plenty of embarrassing misses) since the 162-game season provides immense opportunity for variance, injuries, sudden breakouts or collapses, and every other kind of unforeseen event. But I'm a certified baseball addict with opinions about everything and what better place to share them than here?

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2014 baseball season.

Starting with the American League...

2013 MLB Season Preview Part 3: AL East

It all boils down to whether this guy is on the field or not.

AL East

1. Rays
PECOTA: 87 wins
My pick: Over

Joe Maddon's squad ended last year with the run differential of a 95-win team but underachieved to the tune of 90 wins, just short of the playoffs. Despite trading away a key contributor in James Shields and losing B.J. Upton, this team actually might have improved. New shortstop Yunel Escobar upgrades what's long been a key weakness, while newly acquired outfielder Wil Myers is projected to be an elite all-around slugger whenever the team decides to let him play in the pros (certainly this year at some point). 

The pitching staff lost a big-time innings-eater but the organization already had an overflowing supply of young starters to work with, hence the need for a trade. Even without Shields, their rotation runs 7 or 8 deep right now. This team can pitch. It's the lineup that could potentially be a problem. Evan Longoria tends to miss too many games, Myers is currently being kept in the minor leagues for money reasons, Toronto's discarded keystone combo (Escobar and Kelly Johnson) could easily falter, they're getting no offensive value from the catcher and first base spots, and newly-minted centerfielder Desmond Jennings is still unproven. Even with so many question marks, this should still be the best offense the Rays have had in a few years. With Longoria playing at full strength, I think they'll edge out Toronto for the division and be a good bet for the World Series.

2012 ALCS Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

Well, that was fun.

The first round of baseball's playoffs provided just about the maximum possible amount of excitement with all four series requiring the full five games to be decided. All four series also featured at least one memorable game, while the San Francisco Giants managed to become the first team in the history of the sport to come back from a 2-0 series deficit by winning three straight games on the road.

There was a surprising amount of symmetry to the whole thing. In the American League, powerhouse favorites Detroit and New York saw surprise Cinderella teams (the Oakland A's and Baltimore O's) fight back to stave off elimination until respective aces Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia laid the underdogs to rest with dominant Game 5s. In the National League, the Giants completed an epic comeback by outlasting their opponent in a tense deciding game while the Cardinals had perhaps the greatest single-game comeback in postseason elimination game history---they trailed 6-0 (on the road!) and never stopped battling through each at-bat until they eventually broke through to first tie the game and then take a two-run lead, doing so in successive 9th inning at-bats while down to their final out.

Now we're left with an intriguing quartet of experienced postseason squads battling it out for a shot at the World Series. The Cardinals and Giants are our last two World Champions, while the Tigers and Yankees are about to begin their third head-to-head playoff matchup of the last 7 years. Here I'll give my quick rundown of the AL series (which begins tonight) and then later we'll take a look at the NL.

Baseball's Race to the Postseason (AL Edition)

The baseball season has zoomed by so fast that I haven't had much time to write anything about it. As Austin receives its first extended downpour of rain in about 3 months, now's the time to quickly share my thoughts on how things have played out and what we can look forward to over the final 15 games or so of the regular season.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 3: AL East

AL East
Once again this looks to be the best division in the game and also the most difficult to predict. The expected finish of the top three here is basically a dice roll. You can make a great argument for any one of them winning the division (heck, all three are good World Series picks). At the same time, whichever two teams among the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox don't win the division will be left to compete with the powerhouse Rangers and Angels for two Wild Card spots. Needless to say, the American League will be a lot of fun this year.

(Asterisk denotes predicted Wild Card team.)

1. Rays
PECOTA: 86 wins
My take: Over

Desmond Jennings is your new favorite player

There is something very special about this Rays team and, no, I'm not talking about their magical finish last year. This organization has developed and stockpiled talent for years now, yet they've always been very conservative about bringing their young prospects up to the majors lest they have to pay them too much money too soon. This was exemplified last year by the late arrivals of Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore, two players who were clearly ready to come up to the pros last season but were kept in the minors for most of the year. It seemed as though the Rays were punting away their season by handicapping themselves this way, but once they finally brought Jennings and Moore to the bigs, both guys performed so well down the stretch that they helped propel the team to its miracle comeback in the standings.

This year, the Rays are all in. Nobody's stuck in the minors. The team is built to win right now. And they might be scary good. They've already had one of the best defenses in baseball for years, they are adding flame-throwing lefty strikeout machine Moore to a rotation that was already excellent (so good, in fact, that a quality starter is being sent to the pen), and they'll have a full season of a 25-year-old Jennings who could conceivably go for 20 homers and 40 steals.

Baseball's Insufflation

Two weeks without any posts. Not a nice way to treat a perfectly good blog.

As I've indicated a few times recently, my life is pretty hectic right now, at least relative to my past periods of prosperous blog posting. In the slivers of free time that I do have, my writing has been confined to notebook scribbles so as to keep my writing game sharp. I had hoped to start a monumental study and breakdown of Ulysses here at this blog by now but I've got a few things I'd like to get out of the way first and they're moving along very slowly.

Three straight weeks of family visitors certainly threw me off too, though it was nice to see familiar faces. As great as Austin has been to me thus far, I haven't made any real friends because I haven't really socialized all that much. Although, in an incredible example of synchronicity, a good friend of mine from San Diego who I had drifted away from in the months before moving to Austin actually relocated at the exact same time and now lives about 10 minutes up the road from me.

The baseball season's progressively dramatic developments have kept me occupied as well. Weeks ago I had drafted a blogpost about the complete lack of drama and close pennant races in baseball at the time and my conclusion was to be that, no matter how bad things look, somebody would inevitably make things interesting for us. Parallel epic collapses by the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves (whose franchise, incidentally, originated in Boston) plus resiliency on the part of the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals have created as exciting a final day of the season that we could have ever possibly hoped for.

As I type this, the Wild Card races in both leagues look like this:

AL Wild Card
Red Sox 90-71
Tampa Bay 90-71

NL Wild Card
Braves 89-72
Cardinals 89-72

All four teams play tonight in four separate games and if the results don't yield a clear winner in both instances, we would see an extra one-game playoff tomorrow to decide the winner. Needless to say, it doesn't get any better than this.

For me, the NL race features two teams I don't like at all. The Braves are mortal enemies of the Mets but that doesn't bother as much as the stupidity of their manager, Fredi Gonzalez. One could write a lengthy piece detailing his numerous managerial transgressions throughout the year but it's enough to mention that he blatantly fails to put his best team on the field often and perpetuates the most idiotic bullpen strategies this side of... Tony LaRussa, the Cardinals manager. The Cardinals are no friends to the Mets either but, again, it's the manager that ticks me off the most. Since the Braves are a beaten down, limping team right now I'll prefer to see the Cardinals surpass them so at least they can be a viable contender in the playoffs.

As for the American League, I was sucked into rooting for the Red Sox during their incredible run in 2004 and had been rooting for them in all of their gargantuan battles with the Yankees over the years. That they employ Bill James and generally follow an intelligent, sabermetric approach to building their team has always appealed to me. Ever since reading Moneyball way back in 2003 (if I ever get to see the movie, I'll certainly share my thoughts on it here) I've had a strong fascination with the A's and other teams that employ statistical measures to team-building and the Red Sox certainly brought all that stuff to its highest peaks with their two championships in four years. But lately they've too closely resembled the Yankees and their distasteful tactic of throwing bags of cash at the best players on the open market.


On the other hand, the Rays, with their minuscule budget, have become a Moneyball East type of operation. Except their task is much more daunting having to play in a division with two deep-pocketed powerhouses and even the perpetually competitive Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays have a number of exciting young players (I'm starting to realize Evan Longoria might be my favorite player in the league) and even an eclectic manager.

I would love to see the Rays win, in fact, I'd love to see them win and then carry on to a World Series victory (perhaps a rematch of the 2008 Fall Classic against the Phillies?) but the scenario I most prefer to see would be both the Rays and Red Sox winning today and then playing an epic one-game playoff on Thursday. Same with the Cards and Braves. To nobody's surprise, all four teams have their best pitcher on the mound for today's game. I'll be watching intently and hoping the season drags the excitement out for as long as possible.

The Flight of the Oriole

For the last 2 or 3 weeks I've found myself listening almost exclusively to Madlib's Mind Fusion series, a pretty rare set of cds featuring a vast display of old soul-jazz-funk-psychedelic-global-whatever records (there are 5 albums/mixtapes in the series, 2 of them feature Madlib-produced hip hop remixes, 3 of them are diverse DJ mixes from Mind Altering Demented Lessons In Beats' famous 5-ton collection of vinyl and those mixes are superb).

The song above is from Volume 2 of the series (you can see the full tracklist here) and this tune has captivated me from the first time it hit my ears. It's jazz/soul with an old nightclub feel (the singer, Lorez Alexandria, had performed in Chicago nightclubs in the 1950s but this song is from her 1978 album How Will I Remember You?). I'm entranced by the blend of fast-tapping drums, deep bass strumming slowly, and the singer's strong voice and delivery. Her voice darts and floats like a bird as she sings the seductive story of a ladybird, a Baltimore Oriole, using avian archetypes ("no time for a lady to be dragging her feathers around in the snow"). A bird's eye view of the track reveals the full synthesis of meaning, content, and flavorful delivery---her French-sounding pronunciation of the "r" in Oriole even brings to mind the French word orielle which means "ear" and it's as though the temptress described in the song is also tempting the musical ear of the listener (the oriole is, after all, a songbird). It becomes clear that this was all purposely done by this very talented musician, her bio states that her "clearly enunciated delivery...was always highly sensitive to the import of the lyric she was singing" and the info shown at the bottom of the YouTube clip describes her as "superior at interpreting lyrics."

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The Baltimore Oriole first received its name because the bird's orange-and-black feathers resembled the coat of arms of Lord Baltimore, a British coloniser in the 1600s who was the first proprietor of the colony of Maryland in North America. The Baltimore Oriole is (surprise!) the state bird of Maryland and, following the pastoral tradition of naming baseball teams after state birds, Baltimore ballclubs have used the symbol of the Oriole for almost 130 years now.

The Baltimore Nine in the 1890s

The original Baltimore Orioles baseball franchise was founded way back in 1882 (the year James Joyce was born). They were a charter member of the American Association, an old professional league that lasted for ten years. When that league folded in 1892, the Orioles joined the National League (yep, the same National League that the Mets and everyone else play in today) and became a powerhouse, winning three consecutive pennants.

The National League during the 1890s was a scary place, the games often filled with violent, dirty play, the umpires were often spat on, punched, or shoved and the fans involved themselves in the game's quarrels to a degree unlike anything we could imagine nowadays. In their tame moments, they were known to hurl rotten eggs or beer bottles at the on-field arbiters. As Bill James wrote in the Historical Baseball Abstract,

 "the fans never actually killed an umpire. They tried. Umpires required police protection countless times, and there was an incident in Minnesota in 1906 in which a crowd got hold of an umpire with apparent intent to do bodily harm, but was dissuaded by a local athlete. A good many umpires have been killed in on-field accidents, some of them in the minors. But if they didn't kill one (deliberately) in the 1890s, then it just wasn't destined to happen, because they sure tried." (pg 53)

During this violent era, the Orioles were known as the absolute dirtiest team of them all. In 1894, the Orioles started a fight on the field in Boston that got so ugly it ended up with the the fans rioting and starting a fire that destroyed the ballpark and 170 surrounding buildings. Led by third baseman John McGraw, who would eventually go on to become one of the greatest managers of all time for the New York Giants, they played rough and they succeeded with it.

But just as the 20th century dawned, the National League decide to get rid of four teams including the Orioles. Members of the defunct team went to the brand spankin' new American League and made their own Baltimore Orioles team though they'd only last a couple of years before moving to New York and becoming the Highlanders (eventually changing their name to the Yankees).

The Orioles of today that we know and love were originally the St. Louis Browns, another team in the early American League, until the franchise transferred to Baltimore in 1954 and took on the name of the famous old B-more ballclubs. The newly minted Orioles stunk during their early years in the American League but they would eventually build up a pretty spectacular team that managed to stay in contention virtually every year from 1960 to 1983, winning three World Series titles along the way.

Those Orioles teams pulled off the exalted feat of playing in the Fall Classic for three consecutive years from 1969 to 1971, though they only won once during that span (in 1970). In 1969, the highly-favored, powerhouse O's went up against the scrappy New York Mets. The Amazin' and lovable Mets pulled off the upset, defeating Baltimore in 5 games, winning their first ever World Championship in a series that featured a handful of legendary moments. Here's the Mets segment from Ken Burns' wonderful baseball documentary:


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Having departed San Diego and lost the luxury of rooting for and seeing a nearby baseball team (the Padres) on the regular, I've found thus far this season that I'm clutching to my Mets fanhood as tightly as ever. I'm now deep in the heart of Texas, the state's two pro ball teams are each at least three hours away from me and I've got absolutely no interest in either of them anyway. I don't have cable, so I can't pick up their games on TV and while I do watch baseball on MLB.tv, I'm blacked out from watching any games involving a Texas team. So, early on in the season while league storylines are still developing, I've latched onto my ol' Mets.

This year's team got off to a terrible start but they've looked pretty respectable lately as their deep offense has awoken from its offseason hibernation. As I mentioned recently, I've been particularly glad to see Carlos Beltran back in the lineup and mashing the ball like he used to. As I cooked dinner the other night, I watched and cheered loudly as Beltran launched three homeruns against Colorado.

This weekend, the Metropolitans make their only trip to the city of Houston (though they do return to Texas to face the Rangers in June) and I've been trying to figure out a way to head over there to see a game but my schedule doesn't allow it and it's a three hour drive each way. I can't help but be annoyed by this, though, because my favorite baseball team is playing within driving distance from here and I'm unable to go see them.

I didn't even get to watch last night's game live as it was blacked out. The Mets went about their business anyway and blasted three monstrous homeruns in a nice comeback win against the Astros. For tomorrow afternoon's tilt, featuring the knuckleball-flinging sensation that is R.A. Dickey taking the hill for the Mets, I'll probably resort to tuning into the game's radio broadcast to keep up with the happenings of the National League New York Nine.

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The inimitable Joe Posnanski wrote a nice blog post that briefly examines the reborn Carlos Beltran (leading the NL in extra base hits at the moment) and compares him to Derek Jeter while also painting a humorously accurate and well-written portrayal of New York City and her relationship with her baseball teams. As anyone who's spent time in Manhattan knows, the best way to get a glimpse of what's going on with the local teams is to drop a quarter and pick up the often absurd New York Post tabloid. Sayeth Joe:

"I look to the Post front page for overreaction, for gut punches, for the very thing that New York cops, construction workers, store owners and waitresses and anyone else you might run into would say."

Early Season Baseball Ponderings

The baseball season is barely one-tenth of the way through, still far too early to make any solid judgments but there's been plenty of interesting developments to watch thus far. In the three full weeks of watching games (I haven't been able to watch any of the NHL or NBA playoff games so I've settled for absorbing tons of baseball on MLB.tv) I've caught a bunch of interesting observations.

Though I'm often clicking through various concurrent games depending on the situation, competitiveness, team interest level, etc of each one, I do often find myself deciding to stay put and watch one baseball game in its entirety. It's often said that you see something new any time you watch a baseball game---in other words, no matter how many games you've watched, something will occur that you've never seen and it's often something memorable. A couple weeks ago, I was watching a Saturday afternoon game between the Tampa Bay Rays (a team I'm quickly becoming a fan of) and the Chicago White Sox. In the bottom of the 4th inning, Tampa starter Wade Davis got himself into a jam walking the bases loaded with two outs. Lucky for him, the batter he was facing was the #9 hitter in the White Sox lineup.

He thew a biting fastball up and in shattering the bat of Brett Morel who followed through with his splintered lumber and managed to pop the ball up just barely over the pitcher's head and beyond the mound at such a perfect and unintentionally soft velocity that it plopped down onto the grass untouched by the onrushing middle infielders. I've never seen such an occurrence, a perfectly lucky little blip in the expected outcome of things. It was like a pinball that manages to get lodged into some perfectly unreachable, almost structurally defective spot in a pinball machine. And a run scored on the play which loaded the bases once again, this time with the leadoff batter coming up for the White Sox. Alas, the Sox counterproductively put one of the worst hitters in baseball at the very top of their lineup so up steps slappy out-machine Juan Pierre to presumably kill his team's big rally and let the opposing pitcher escape unscathed. That's what I thought would happen.

Instead, Pierre took a mighty swing at the first pitch he saw and clocked a liner to right field that looked to possibly be a homerun otherwise an off-the-wall extra base hit that would clear the bases. Suddenly across the screen, in full horizontal hoverance above the warning track dirt, rightfielder Sam Fuld launched and about 3/4ths of the way through his flight managed to grab the flying orb in his outstretched glove. Inning over, three runs saved. It has to be on the short list of greatest catches I've ever seen while watching a game and it was especially shocking because of the above described circumstances.

Rob Neyer wrote a nice piece on "The Legend of Sam Fuld" the other day, noting his penchant for acrobatic catches. Looking through the video archives of Fuld's many highlight reel catches, though, it appears he's got a certain flair for the dramatic, often diving or sliding when he doesn't really have to. Having said that, the catch in that White Sox game is still one of the best I've ever seen.

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As of this morning, the New York Mets have the worst record in baseball. They're off to a terrible start on the year and they've lost 9 out of their last 10. Most of that can be attributed to their terrible pitching, they've given up more runs that any team in the National League thus far, they've also looked atrocious in the field, dropping or completely missing easy fly balls in key moments.

The offense has been terrible as well, but I'm happy to see that Carlos Beltran has returned to his awesome self, hitting .286/.355/.554 thus far, after a bunch of knee problems had left his future in doubt before the season. The 33-year-old Beltran won't be galloping around the pastures of centerfield anymore and he seems to have put on some weight, but the guy can still hit and that's great. If he stays healthy and keeps hitting like this he'll almost certainly be traded away during the season and I'll be sad to see his Mets career come to an end without him ever getting to avenge that horrible swingless strikeout to end the Mets' World Series run in 2006. But at least he'll probably go out on a strong note and escape this festering team.

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Through some sort of glitch in the system, I managed to scoop up righthander Dan Haren very late in my fantasy draft this year. That glitch seems to mirror the real life one in which somehow, in a league where durable, effective pitchers are such a rare and treasured commodity, the Angels picked up Haren last year for spare parts. Haren has been superb thus far this year. In four starts he's got a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he's thrown a few gems, including a one-hit shutout of the Indians (the highest scoring team in the league right now, for what it's worth). His approach has been fun to watch, as he operates with emotionless precision, carving through batting orders and looking away heartlessly after a hitter flails at strike three and marches away frustrated. He looks extremely confident in his stuff, throwing lots of changeups and darting splitters. Don't be surprised if he reels off some crazy 15-2 first half, this guy has always been that good.

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That we're talking about the Cleveland Indians at all is an example of how small sample sizes can be deceiving but, to be honest, they're kicking ass thus far. After 18 games, they're tied for the best record in baseball and they've got by far the best run differential in baseball. I can promise you they will not maintain that pace but, still, it counts for something. As I noted in my AL Central preview, this is a team that can score some runs, and they've got the best offense in the league thus far in the young season. And they've done it thus far without strong output from their two best hitters, as both Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana have struggled thus far.

Similar to Carlos Beltran, I'm particularly glad that Grady Sizemore has made his way back and didn't seem to lose anything along his journey through the underworld. The former face of the franchise and projected superstar hasn't played at full strength in two years and yet he came back this week looking as good as ever. In his first game he smacked a homer and a double then went 3 for 5 with a walk and a double in his second game. He's still only 28 and so this could be the beginning of Sizemore's second career.

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One thing that's always great to observe as the season takes shape is the emergence of rookies. Three rookie pitchers have caught my attention early on:

• Zach Britton of the Orioles has shown a composed presence for a 23-year-old rookie and the lefty has been a groundball machine, relying mostly on a hard sinker. A lefty with a 6/2 K/BB ratio and a bunch of groundballs, he looks like a star in the making.
• Kyle Drabek has been talked about as a prospect for years now and his major league performance thus far hasn't disappointed. Wearing jersey number 4, a rare pitcher with a single-digit jersey number (though I'm not sure why that's so uncommon), he's been solid for the Blue Jays thus far. He's walked a few too many batters (15 in 25 innings thus far), but he's had great stuff and doesn't look the least bit flustered out there. I watched his first game this year and he was virtually unhittable against the Twins. He went 7 innings and gave up one hit while inducing 11 ground ball outs.
• There's not much incentive to watching the Seattle Mariners these days but big righty Michael Pineda is worth a look. He's only had three starts thus far but there have been flashes of dominance from the 22-year-old. In his second career start, he pitched into the 8th inning against the Blue Jays and struck out 7. He relies almost entirely on a fastball-slider combo, not much in the off-speed department. The fastball sits in the high-90s and the lanky 6-foot-7 hurler has a very smooth, easy throwing motion. It's extremely early in the season and even earlier in this guy's career, but he already looks like a great complement to combine with King Felix atop that Seattle rotation for years to come.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 6: AL East

Wrapping up our 2011 Season Preview with the most talked-about division in the sport. There are more words spilled on paper, more saliva spat between sports show hosts about the AL East teams than any in baseball. It seems at times that ESPN and SportsCenter are concerned with only two teams in baseball, the Red Sox and Yankees. So for this last part of the preview I will limit myself to just two sentences for each team since this is baseball's main-stream and it's already flooded.

AL East
Weaker Yankee and Rays teams open up the Wild Card door for AL contenders.

1. Red Sox
PECOTA: 93-69
My take: Over

Baseball's powerhouse features a deep lineup, rotation, bullpen, and even solid defense. They'll probably surpass 100 wins.

2. Rays
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Over

Crawford is gone, the bullpen is a bargain bin bundle, but one of the smartest organizations in baseball continues to compete with the AL East beasts. Division's best rotation and a surprisingly strong offense led by a middle of Manny, Evan, and Danny (Johnson) leads the Rays to Wild Card playoff berth.

3. Yankees
PECOTA: 92-70
My take: Under

Explosive lineup and door-slamming pen keep them competing in baseball's best division but flimsy rotation falls short of Rays and Sox. Wild Card race should be exciting.

4. Orioles
PECOTA: 81-81
My take: Over

Interesting mix of young and old bats outscore opponents stifled by youthful rotation. With three "bona fide closers" in the pen, somebody ought to get the job done.

5. Blue Jays
PECOTA: 76-86
My take: Over

Fun team that relies on taters and a veritable factory of young arms. An 82-win season will leave them in 5th place, though they'll be a baseball novelty.

Baseball Starts to Bloom

Major League Baseball has crawled out of its winter hibernation and its participants have begun stretching, yawning and wiping the crust out their eyes. Spring Training baseball has begun in Florida and Arizona, new players are meeting their teammates and donning new threads, pitchers are loosening up their arms and getting injured already, hitters are getting back in the swing of things and, of course, the always anticipated annual rite of spring has begun: the publishing of new baseball books.

I picked up the annual Baseball Prospectus book a couple weeks ago and I'll have plenty to say about it soon. Also, a writer who began with the BP conglomerate, Jonah Keri, has released his first book on his own and its getting great reviews already. The book is titled The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First detailing the extraordinary turnaround of the Tampa Bay Rays from pathetic embarrassment to pennant-winning AL East powerhouse regularly competing with the league's most powerful and resource-rich organizations. I've only read the opening pages thus far but the writing is great; Keri has a reputation for being a wonderful writer, and the book is a bit like the Moneyball story which means I'll probably become a Rays fan after reading it. Admittedly, for me the prominence of Wall Street tactics and ex-Goldman Sachs honchos within the story is a bit discomforting because of my violent feelings toward that sector of society these days but it is a baseball story above all and Keri has denied that the Rays people had any past involvement in the shady tactics that murdered the economy. Besides that, Jonah is a cool guy, I've had lunch with him once before.

About 5 or 6 years ago when I was getting college credit as an intern with Baseball Prospectus (thanks to my pal Jay Jaffe), my brother John and I attended a book-signing and discussion upon the release of the big annual book and we got to go out for lunch with the crew of writers afterward. It was a highly interesting, baseball-chatter filled afternoon, and it just so happened that John and I sat at the end of the table next to both Jonah Keri and Nate Silver. Jonah was an extremely nice, humble guy; a Canadian with a deep and sometimes humorous affection for the Expos (which John and I could sympathize with since we'd recently drove to Montreal for a weekend to take in a couple games), he was also highly knowledgeable about college basketball and that often snuck into the discussion since it was March. We also talked about the new hardcover book BP had recently written, Baseball Between the Numbers, which Jonah edited.

Nate was also a very cool dude. The whiz kid who had developed BP's statistical projection system PECOTA, he is probably the smartest individual I've ever met. He would later go on to leave BP for a pretty famous career as a statistician analyzing political polls. (He accurately predicted the results for 49 of the 50 states in the last presidential election and was even named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People in 2009---with Bill James himself writing the article.) I remember Nate having the physical quirks and awkwardness of a genius; he would sit in a strange twist with his legs crossed and arms leaning forward. For such a gifted mind, he was a humble and soft-spoken individual. A few years later, big bro John and I went to another signing and Nate, who I hadn't spoken to since that lunch, remembered me. In retrospect, it should come as no surprise because his digital computerbrain probably remembered what hat I wore that day (Padres, actually) and what I had for lunch.

You can read more about Jonah's new book here and here, and if you're interested in what Nate Silver's up to these days he's got a blog on the New York Times site. Mostly about politics, sadly. He doesn't touch on baseball too much anymore though he does write about basketball (college and pro) every now and then.

Jays, Halos, Rays Rekindle Hot Stove Flame

Ever since reading Moneyball back in 2003, I've been interested in following the chess moves of the notably intelligent, crafty GMs in baseball. Right around that same time, teams started hiring so-called whiz kids (young, Ivy League-educated baseball geniuses) to run their teams like Theo Epstein for the Red Sox, Paul DePodesta for the Dodgers, Jon Daniels with the Rangers, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks, and Andrew Friedman for the Tampa Bay Rays. I'm fascinated by these young minds and usually follow their cunning schemes with precise attention, trying to figure out why they took that player or traded that aging slugger.

About a month ago I read a great interview with the Blue Jays' new hot shot general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, which sparked up my interest in that team and the plots Anthopoulos might have in mind to drag them back into contention again in a fiercely competitive AL East division.

Yesterday he made a trade that has the whole baseball analysis world lavishing the young executive with superlative praise. He somehow managed to get rid of arguably the worst contract in baseball, Vernon Wells' $86 million over the next four years, bestowed on the centerfielder by Antopoulos' predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi. Wells did manage to put up a strong showing at the plate last season (127 OPS+) but, going into his age 32 season, he's no longer a very capable centerfielder and yet he's due to collect $21.5 million per year over the next four years. That's more than the Phillies are paying ace Roy Halladay. FanGraphs ran some numbers and calculated that Wells' projected performance should be worth somewhere around $37-38 million over that span, instead he'll be getting $86 million!

Somehow, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim not only agreed to take Wells and his albatross contract off the Jays' hands, they also gave up a couple of pretty good pieces in catcher Mike Napoli and outfielder Juan Rivera. Napoli never really seemed appreciated in Anaheim but he's what I'll call a Bill James Abstract Favorite; a hitter whose assets are his ability to draw lots of walks and hit for power, basically a Three True Outcomes hitter. Focusing on his shitty batting average (.238 last year) or propensity for strikeouts (137 last year in just 510 at-bats) obscures the fact that he's a highly productive hitter because of his power and patience. He should fit right in on this slugging Blue Jays team.

Rivera is really nothing special at this point though he does have a little bit of power (in the game I attended up in Anaheim last summer he hit a moon shot) and maybe the homer-happy Jays can tap into that the way they did with Jose Bautista last year when he exploded for 54 homeruns.

I'm not really sure how Vernon Wells is supposed to fit on this Angels team. He's a lot like Torii Hunter in that he can hit a little bit but not enough to make sense as a corner outfielder, but he's too slow to cover ground in centerfield anymore. Hunter got bumped from center in the middle of the season last year for speedy Peter Bourjos, so I assume Wells will probably split time between left field and DH. Twice already (FanGraphs and Keith Law) somebody has referred to this as a "desperation move" on the Angels' part because they had been chasing after the big free agents all winter and fell short. Taking on an $86 million obligation and an aging mediocre outfielder really doesn't do them much good.

As for the Blue Jays, dumping off that chunky contract from their books puts them in a great position to stack up for serious battle against the AL East elites. Probably not this season, but by 2012 that entire division will feature contenders.

*   *   *
The division also got a whole lot more interesting yesterday when the Rays, who had been seemingly staying quiet all winter and let some great players go, signed two ex-Red Sox stars to bargain bin deals: Johnny Damon for $5.25 million and Manny Ramirez for $2 million. Both guys are approaching 40 but they can both still hit and should be comfortable jumping back into the division where they had the most success. They won a World Series together in 2004 when the Red Sox ended an 86-year drought for the franchise. Now, they'll be playing regularly against a completely revamped Red Sox powerhouse and, of course, the Yankees.

Manny was flaky, unproductive and possibly malingering for a crappy Dodgers team last year but if he's healthy, you can bet he'll still hit. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time and one of my favorite players to watch (not only because he's such a character but because the man can still hit with the best of them). Getting him at $2 million is an absurd bargain.

Damon had a tough time in Detroit's big ballpark last year (8 homers) but he can definitely still get on base and ought to be a tough out in that deep Rays lineup. I predict that these pick-ups won't be quite so big a deal in the AL East race because it's pretty much inevitable that both players will get banged up and spend some time sitting out. But it will sure as hell be fun to watch.

MLB 2010 Midseason Thoughts: American League

Standings are as of this morning.

AL West
Texas      --
Los Angeles (of Anaheim!)  4.5
Oakland 9.5
Seattle  16

At the halfway point, the division is not nearly as close as I expected it to be. Seattle has been terrible (I was right about that!) but so have my Oakland A's, the team I predicted to win the division. The Angels have played well despite injuries but the Rangers are a virtual lock to take this division. They're the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+82) and they've just added one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, Cliff Lee, to shore up the rotation which has been their only real weak spot.

With the A's languishing amid their usual spate of injuries and limp bats, the Rangers are going to become one of the gladiators I'll be rooting for to topple the Yankee monster. They've already beaten the Yanks in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

AL Central
Detroit   --
Chicago  0.5
Minnesota   3
Kansas City  9
Cleveland   14

I'm glad to see this is once again a three team battle. Chicago started out terribly but has burst back into contention over the past month or so and as I write this they've won 6 straight games. They'll be without Jake Peavy for the rest of the year though after he suffered a detachment of his shoulder muscle. Rookie Daniel Hudson (10 K vs 3 BB per 9 IP in the minors this year) looks like an able-bodied replacement for Peavy and so their pitching should remain strong, but they'll have to add a bat if they want to stay in the race for the rest of the year.

Detroit has succeeded with a deep offense led by Miguel Cabrera's huge season (he's in the top 2 of each Triple Crown stat category) and a surprisingly explosive big league introduction from rookie left fielder Brennan Boesch (astronomical .600 slugging so far although he'll probably come back to Earth soon). If their mediocre pitching picks up the slack, they can win the division but I think Minnesota is still the favorite. The Twins need to stop punting the third base position with Nick Punto (72 OPS+) and acquire someone with some semblance of hitting ability for that spot. Otherwise, I'm happy to see both Delmon Young (.339/.504 OBP/SLG) finally fulfilling his promise and Francisco Liriano returning to dominance (9.81 K/9 IP, 3rd in the AL). Joe Mauer's power outage (just 4 homers) is worrisome but he's still great and Justin Morneau has played like an MVP and kept that Twinkie offense afloat.

AL East
New York  --
Tampa Bay  3
Boston   5.5
Toronto  12
Baltimore  18

The Yanks are once again the best team in baseball (surprise!) as they've got the most wins (55) and the best run differential (+114). Yesterday morning, rumors had a Cliff Lee-to-New York deal all but completed but thankfully it fell apart. Adding one of the best pitchers in baseball to the best team in the league just does not seem fair. Now, hopefully Lee continues his dominant streak against the Yanks by toppling them in the playoffs.

The Red Sox have been a fun team to follow and root for as they've suffered an unbelievable amount of injuries but deftly plugged the holes with temporary parts. I've enjoyed every minute of the Big Papi Resurgence, Adrian Beltre has been superb, and Kevin Youkilis just keeps truckin' along as one of the best but least appreciated (he's an all-star snub) hitters in the league.

What's interesting about this division is that not only have the Red Sox barely played at all with their full roster, but the Yankees and Rays haven't gotten top production from their key players as of yet. New York's offensive leaders have been Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher while A-Rod, Texeira, and Jeter have played below their established levels of performance. For the Rays, Carlos Peña is on pace for 100 walks but his OBP right now is .321, James Shields has given up nearly 5 runs per game, and BJ Upton's mediocre-at-best performance has significantly lowered our hopes of what he can become. But yet all three teams have great records. It'll be fun to watch how things play out when (or if) Boston's cavalry comes back, the Yankees perform on all cylinders, and the Rays regain the historically awesome form they showed at the beginning of the year. I still like the Rays to win the division and the Sox the Wild Card but it'll be a pretty dang exciting race.

AL MVP thus far: Justin Morneau, Twins
His monster season (.345/.437/.618 BA/OBP/SLG) has carried along an underperforming Twins offense and kept them in the mix of a very tight AL Central. If you'll allow me to get all nerdy on you for a moment: his 46.2 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is currently 2nd in all of baseball, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is first.

AL Cy Young thus far: Cliff Lee, Mariners/Rangers
Most of the frontline pitchers have 17 or 18 starts by this point. Lee started the season a bit late because of an injury and so he's only had 13 starts but he's still in the mix of all the pitching leaderboards. He leads the league in complete games, ERA, WHIP, and his nearly 15-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is just absurd. The next best in that category is the eminent Roy Halladay with 6.61-to-1. Some regression is expected as he throws more innings, especially in the Texas summer heat (and that bandbox of a stadium), but up til now nobody in the AL has pitched nearly as well as this guy has.

A Double Feature Extravaganza! 2010 MLB Season Preview Parts 5 and 6: AL Central and AL East

Due to my attending the Anaheim Ducks-vs-Vancouver Canucks hockey game last night, I was unable to spend any time putting together Part 5 of our continuing preview of the baseball season. I was aiming to finish this 6-part preview today and so what that means is: a Double Feature! With the season starting tomorrow night and exhibitions already underway in the major league stadiums (Angel Stadium was packed last night as they played the Dodgers and I watched the Twins and Cardinals play a game at brand new Target Field earlier today) let's take one last look at what's to come.



AL Central
It's taken an extra game to decide the division in each of the last two seasons and it just might happen again this year as things are looking to be very tight between five flawed teams. Just like their cousins in the National League Central, this is the weakest division in the AL and it might only take 82 or 83 wins to come out on top. The new-look Twinkies are considered to be the favorite but the White Sox have assembled a pitching staff that can match up with anyone. Detroit, Cleveland, and Kansas City are all closely bunched together and if a few things were to go right, they can be in the mix too.

1. Twins
PECOTA: 81-81
My take: Over

The lineup looks great but do they have enough pitching to win the division? I think it'll be enough to just barely get them over the hump. A deeper lineup than they've had in recent years with the additions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson to go along with Mighty Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau will scare the bajeebies out of their AL opponents and I think it'll be enough to supplement their unspectacular pitching. In the wake of closer Joe Nathan's injury they've decided to replace him through the trade market...no wait, a closer-by-committee system! ah, forget it...they'll actually just hand the ball to 6-foot-11 behemoth Jon Rauch. The loss of Nathan is a big deal but I don't think Rauch will represent such a significant drop-off as to ruin the team's chances. Not with the lineup they've assembled. The rotation is nothing special but what it lacks in frontline production it makes up for in sheer quantity of capable contributors. 84 wins and another division title.

2. White Sox
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Over
Kind of the opposite of the Twins, they've got a superb rotation from top to bottom and a pretty good bullpen to back it up (especially the fire-breathing monster that is Matt Thornton) but a lineup of question marks. Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy? Will Gordon Beckham improve on his solid rookie debut? Does Paul Konerko have anything left in the tank? Can Andruw Jones buy his soul back from the devil? Will Juan Pierre provide anything other than frustration?
The White Sox chapter in this year's Baseball Prospectus annual was actually so good that it kinda turned me into a bit of a Sox fan this year. It describes how, through trades and picking up other teams' developed prospects as well as over-the-hill veterans (like Andruw Jones this year), Kenny Williams has taken big gambles but  assembled a strong competitve squad these last few years and I'm curious to see if this year's gambles (Rios, Jones, Pierre, Mark Teahen) will pay off. Led by Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy, the pitching is going to be wonderful and at least keep the team afloat. If even a few of those question marks turn out well though, they'll be fighting the Twins up until the final day of the season if not longer.

3. Indians
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Under
An absolute disaster last year, the Tribe is generally looked upon as a rebuilding non-contender this year. But they might surprise alot of people. Just like the other imperfect teams in this division, they have the makings of a nice offense but zero pitching. They haven't really done much to try to improve their wretched run-prevention and they'll be depending on a front three of Jake Westbrook (missed all of 2009), Fausto Carmona (6.32 ERA last year), and Justin Masterson (reliever-turned-starter who walked 5.5 per 9 innings in '09). Reports out of Spring Training about the 26-year-old former 19-game winner Fausto Carmona are very positive and if the rediscovery of his ability to pitch well is indeed true, this team might actually hang in the race for a while on the strength of their lineup. That lineup is not only good but also young (aside from DH Travis Hafner, the projected starters are all 28 or under) and so there is plenty of break-out potential. There ought to be alot more excitement in Cleveland this year but I don't think they'll be in the mix for the division title. 76 wins sounds good.

4. Tigers
PECOTA: 79-83
My take: Under

An incongruent mix of expensive veterans and cheap youngsters, this team faded out of first place last year and I expect them to continue to fade in 2010. Justin Verlander had a terrific season last year (league-leading 269 Ks) but was worked like a mule, throwing 300 more pitches than any other pitcher in the majors, and more than any American League pitcher in the last 10 years. It'd be a nice surprise if he made it through this season without an arm injury and he's anchoring this team's strength, the rotation. Although it wasn't well-received in Detroit, I liked the trade GM Dave Dombrowski made in the offseason shipping out Edwin Jackson at his peak value and Curtis Granderson as he approaches 30 and bringing in a young centerfielder (23-year-old Austin Jackson) and a young pitcher with ace-level potential in Max Scherzer. The signing of Johnny Damon also makes sense although his production will probably suffer in their big ballpark. With all its pieces working properly, this looks like a .500-level team and, yes, that would be good enough to win this division. Because I imagine they'll have some injuries and old players being ineffective, they look more like a rickety old car sputtering along with shiny new rims and a sweet stereo system. They won't be in it for the long haul.


5. Royals
PECOTA: 77-85
My take: Under
Nobody is quite sure what it is the Royals are trying to do. They spent the offseason adding some more crappy veteran players (Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, Rick Ankiel) to a lineup that already had more than enough crappy veteran players. Ankiel and Podsednik might help out their atrocious defense but bringing them on board is really just a sad attempt by general manager Dayton Moore to get into the hip new fad of focusing on defense. While Podzilla has speed and Ankiel a great arm, neither player has ever been noted for above-average defensive performance and so it's another example of Moore's incompetence and ignorance of advanced metrics. If not for Zack Greinke, there would be no reason to ever watch this team play and even with Greinke there is no reason to believe they will be anywhere near competitive, even in a perennially weak division.

And now, the grand finale...

AL East
This is it, the main event, the Royal Rumble Battle Royale. We've got three teams vying for two playoff spots and those three teams are also the winners of the last three American League pennants. They've all made adjustments and are primed to do battle. (We also have a couple other punching bags, one of which might punch back sooner or later.) PECOTA's predictions for how things will turn out are included here but I must note that the CHONE projection system has a much different view, with the Yankees running away with the division again at 99 wins and the Rays left out of the mix with a mere 88 while the Red Sox draw the Wild Card to the tune of 93 victories. Here's what I think will happen:

1. Red Sox
PECOTA: 95-67
My take: Under
The Theo Epstein Era (or Dynasty) faces a new chapter. After a strong year in '09 followed by an early postseason exit, the young Sox GM sought to address the team's main and perhaps only weakness: it's defense. To address this need, he scooped up one of the one best fielding centerfielders (according to UZR or Ultimate Zone Rating, that hip "new" thing) from the last few years, Mike Cameron, as well as one of the baseball's best defensive third basemen, Adrain Beltre. Great pick-ups both, they've brought the team plenty of press (too much) about it's focus on defense and how they are finding a new way to win. What's being neglected is the fact that Beltre (three straight 25+ HR seasons before an injury riddled '09) and Cameron (.281 EqA last year) can both hit a little too as can Marco Scutaro, the new shortstop who finished last year with a 5.6 WARP (higher than the likes of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Justin Upton). One mustn't forget that those three will merely be the last three hitters in what will be a very strong Red Sox lineup. As a team, they had the 3rd-highest EqA in the AL last year and, even with the loss of Jason Bay, they've probably got a better lineup than the one trotted out on Opening Day of 2009.

With the addition of former Angels ace John Lackey, the rotation looks absurdly good. Lackey will slot in as their #3 starter behind Josh Beckett and the Sox' emerging ace, 26-year-old Jon Lester. The lefty Lester placed in the top 5 in both ERA and strikeouts last year and led the Sox team with a 5.5 WARP. They'll probably have the best back-end starters in baseball as well with the combination of Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and the ol' reliable knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. To go along with that, their bullpen has a chance to be the best in baseball as well. The closer, Jonathan Papelbon, showed a tiny chink in his armor losing last year's deciding playoff game but he's still one of the most dominant hurlers in the game right now with a career 1.84 ERA in almost 300 innings. With that rotation, a strong defense behind it, and a deep lineup (the #9 hitter will probably be Marco Scutaro, he of the .379 OBP last year) this powerhouse squad will come out on top in an ultra-competitive AL East.


2. Rays
PECOTA: 91-71
My take: Over
One look at their roster and the depth is staggering. Going down the lineup:
-Shortstop Jason Bartlett is coming off a monster .320/.389/.490 season and, even with any expected regression, should still be good
-Carl Crawford is turning 28 and his 2010 season is basically one extended opportunity to showcase his skills and why he deserves a huge contract from a new team next season. Yes, the contract-year theory.

-Ben Zobrist is the new baseball sensation, bursting onto the scene last year with a reconstructed swing (tweaked for him by The Swing Mechanic) that knocked 27 homers while the versatile Zorilla played all over the field with splendid defense everywhere. He was neck and neck with Albert Pujols in WARP for a while even though Pujols batted 100 more times than he did. This year he'll play rightfield, secondbase and anywhere else Joe Maddon needs him to while putting plenty of runs on the board.
-24 years old, coming off a 33-homerun season, one of the best defensive players in the league last year, and primed for a monster season in 2010, Evan Longoria is "all that and a bag of chips" as BP says in this year's book.
-#5 hitter Carlos Pena led the American League in homeruns last year with 39 and, like Crawford, this is his contract year.

Need I go on? That's just the first five hitters in a lineup that does not have a weak spot. Catcher Dioner Navarro isn't a great hitter but his back-up Kelly Shoppach is and he'll probably get plenty of playing time from Joe Maddon, perhaps as part of a platoon. Pat Burrell had a bad year in '09 but, if he doesn't rebound, there's enough depth to plug another hitter in the DH spot.
I haven't even mentioned their rotation which consists of five young pitchers (oldest is 28, James Shields) that all have the potential to be an ace, especially the pitcher who will be their #3 guy: 24-year-old former #1-overall draft-pick David Price. The bullpen is a potential weakness but they've signed the reliably effective Rafael Soriano and the farm system is so rich with prospects that they can pick somebody up in a trade if need be. They're awesome but in this division they'll be the Wild Card team. Expect a tight finish, though, and plenty of exciting games against the Sox and Yanks.

3. Yankees
PECOTA: 90-72

My take: Over
The 103-win behemoth that ran through the league like an unstoppable force last year will be toppled. Adding Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson to an already awesome rotation and lineup sounds great but I think last year's run will leave the oldies like Derek Jeter (36 years old), Jorge Posada (38), Mariano Rivera (40) on the ground gasping for air in this year's Roller Derby-style race. GM Brian Cashman is a sharp fellow and he recognized the need to curtail the potential drop off if the aforementioned Yankee statues suffer setbacks and he went out and added more talent. He also let old-timers like Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon hit the road. But I think they're due for some nicks and scratches. Injuries and missed-time as well as obligatory regression. Granderson and Vazquez have hopped on board a presumed-powerhouse defending-champion looking to cruise through the season like a shiny new sports car on the highway. But the Orioles' dumptruck is letting out little rocks and pebbles that'll crack the windshield and scratch the paint on that sports car and the Rays and Red Sox are souped-up vehicles moving with greater urgency towards their destination. For the Yanks it's a tie for second-place with the Rays at the finish line (92 wins apiece), bowing out of the picture on a tie-breaker.

4. Orioles
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Under
No, Matt Weiters did not solve world hunger or blast a pitch so hard that the Big Bang reoccurred, but he made a pretty strong debut for a 23-year-old catcher with absurd expectations and continued the process of trickling in prospects with star-level potential for the Orioles. This team is not ready to compete, their pitching rotation will mostly serve as a homerun-launching machine for the AL East beasts above, but they've come a long way and a deep lineup will make them respectable this year.

5. Blue Jays
PECOTA: 72-90
My take: Under
Unless Major League Baseball does something drastic like realigning the divisions, it will be more of the same for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future. The new GM seems like another potential wiz-kid but he's got a long way to climb and he's already a few steps behind the Orioles who have assembled the pieces of a long-term contender the last few years while the Jays tread water. Adam Lind and Travis Snider both look like the real deal and maybe prospect Brett Wallace will turn into a nice player but that's about it as far as young hitters. The Jays have gained a reputation for having a seemingly endless supply of capable young pitchers but none of them have really amounted to much thus far and there's a Grand Canyon-sized gaping hole to fill now that Roy Halladay is gone. This year they'll be a pretty bad team with a good bullpen. I predict them to lose 100 games and trade off whatever they can, most likely the constituents of the pen.

Happy Baseball Everyone!