MLB 2016 Predictions

MLB teams are as tightly clustered as ever. (art by Chenglor55)

Predicting baseball has become harder than ever. This is a good thing. It's more fun to watch it all unfold when you have no idea which team might suddenly start firing on all cylinders and plow through everyone.

Trying to predict what the final results will be in six months from now, with so many variables in between, is also a fool's errand. But we do it because it's fun to talk about, read about, and write about baseball.

What I've gathered here are more like expectations than predictions. A key part of this, though, is that after doing so many of these over the years, it is not just an expectation but a certainty that some of these predictions will be very, very wrong. There will be injuries, there will be sudden performance dropoffs, there will be midseason trades that transform mediocre teams into contenders, there will be breakout stars and broken legs and torn UCLs. There will be lots of unforeseen events between now and October.

But this is how we like to talk about baseball when the season starts. We make predictions.

As usual, I'm starting off with Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, noting the PECOTA win projection for each team and then choosing an over/under on that number. I will also rank the teams in each division and pick two Wild Card teams in each league.


First, a quick word on the difference in expectations between the two leagues.

MLB 2015 Predictions, Part 2: American League

Mookie Betts. Familiarize yourself. Say it over and over again. Mookie Betts. [AP photo]

Continuing along, a bit late, with my predictions for the new baseball season, using the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for the 2015 season. Normally I like to get these out of the way before the season starts, but it's been an extremely busy time for me lately. Mostly because of this. (Once again, the win numbers at BP have inevitably changed slightly since I captured them here, they remain in flux as the season goes on.)

The American League saw so many big moves made over the winter that it's harder than ever to determine with any confidence how things may take shape. If every team had full health all around, there would likely be extreme parity in the AL with lots of teams finishing with win totals in the mid-80s. Out of 15 teams, I count only 3 that are good bets to be really bad: Twins, Astros, Rangers. Every other AL team expects to fight for a playoff spot. Every one of them is also constructed with obvious flaws or severely lopsided rosters.

AL East
These division standings could end up being jumbled into any combination imaginable and we oughtn't be surprised. The Rays and Yankees are most likely going to have down years, but both have enough talent on hand to conceivably compete, while the other three all have playoff aspirations.

1. Blue Jays
PECOTA: 80 wins
My pick: Over

With their best pitcher, Marcus Stroman, now out for the year with a torn ACL, I can't say that I've got a ton of confidence in this pick. But the addition of catcher Russell Martin alone makes the Jays a much better team and they were in the playoff race pretty much all of last season, only a terrible month of August (9-17 and outscored 132 to 86) knocked them out. Adding third baseman Josh Donaldson, one of the game's best all-around players the past two seasons (14.1 total fWAR, behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen) to an already powerful lineup certainly helps too.

Just like the Red Sox, the Jays are expected to have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the game, but the pitching, which features two late-career vets and three youngsters, has lots of question marks. Can R.A. Dickey harness his knuckleball well enough to pitch more like an above average starter than an amusing sideshow? Will 24-year-old Drew Hutchinson build on his solid first full season in 2014? Can the kids (Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, both 22) handle a full season of pitching for a contending big league team?

It's a top-heavy roster and the bottom has enough youth for some breakout potential so there's plenty of reason for optimism. With the Royals ending their playoff drought last year, the longest streak of missing the postseason now belongs to the Blue Jays. I don't think that streak will carry much further.

2014 MLB Predictions, Part 1: American League

Tampa Bay's ace David Price will lead my World Series pick.

The new baseball season is suddenly upon us. Things are slated to begin a bit earlier than usual this year as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will play the opening games of the regular season this weekend on the other side of the planet in Australia. Following that, Spring Training will awkwardly continue for another week before the rest of the teams kick off their season.

Here in Austin, I'll spend the next week or so hastily packing up to move into a new apartment with my girlfriend. Should be an exciting, hectic, and memorable time which will be almost immediately followed by a two-week trip to the Iberian Peninsula.

All of which is to say: I don't quite have the time to write as thorough an MLB preview as I had been doing for the previous 4 years. So I'll keep things as brief as I can this time around.

As always, I will use the season projections provided by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system as a baseline and determine whether I think each team will finish above or below that baseline. These predictions are not all that serious, I wouldn't bet on most of them (the last four years my success rate is below 40% with plenty of embarrassing misses) since the 162-game season provides immense opportunity for variance, injuries, sudden breakouts or collapses, and every other kind of unforeseen event. But I'm a certified baseball addict with opinions about everything and what better place to share them than here?

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2014 baseball season.

Starting with the American League...

2013 MLB Season Preview Part 1: AL West

And another new season begins.

This will be the fourth time in this blog's history that I'll be writing up a division-by-division baseball preview. Each time in the past I've gotten at least a couple predictions dead wrong. Last year, for instance, I had the Nationals finishing in last place and the revamped Marlins winning the NL East. Instead, the Nats won 98 games and the division while the Marlins imploded with a 69-win last-place disaster season.

All of which is to say: don't take this too seriously. No matter how well you know baseball, it's impossible to predict the outcome of a six-month-long season with any sort of accuracy. This format is merely the most convenient for discussing each team's chances. I like to yap about baseball and looking at each team's projected record represents a good starting point.

Baseball's Race to the Postseason (AL Edition)

The baseball season has zoomed by so fast that I haven't had much time to write anything about it. As Austin receives its first extended downpour of rain in about 3 months, now's the time to quickly share my thoughts on how things have played out and what we can look forward to over the final 15 games or so of the regular season.

Amen to R.A. and the Redeeming Beauty of Baseball

We're almost midway through the 2012 baseball season and ever so slowly some things are starting to become clear. We know the Yankees are once again a dominant force. The Padres are a complete abject disaster. The AL Central is up for grabs. Rookies Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are really good.

And R.A. Dickey is among the best pitchers in baseball.

That last one is the hardest to believe. For one thing, Dickey got knocked around by the Yankees last night. He's also a 37-year-old knuckeballer, which is something of a sideshow in the game of baseball. And yet earlier this year he became the first National League pitcher since 1944 to throw two consecutive one-hitters. His dominance reached the point of 44 and 2/3 straight innings without giving up an earned run until the Yankees finally got to him last night.

But even after surrendering five runs last night, he's still 7th-best in the league at keeping runs off the board. He leads the NL in shutouts, wins, and his tied for the lead in pitcher's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Most incredibly, he's got the third most strikeouts of any pitcher in the NL and he's by far the oldest guy in the top 10 of that category.

2012 MLB Season Preview Part 1: AL West

Yu Darvish, the newest Texas ace (photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

I wanted to avoid following baseball closely this year.

It takes up far too much of my time and mental energy.

Then the Angels, Rangers, and Tigers had to go and sign big-time players and suck me back in. Then Major League Baseball had to go and add another Wild Card team to the playoff scenario and modify the overall outlook of everything. The American League is stacked. Now it's impossible not to be invested in the outcomes.

Searching for Optimism Part 2: Oakland A's

That big old football stadium nobody likes

Despite garnering massive amounts of attention for Moneyball, the successful major motion picture (starring Brad Pitt) all about their franchise, and winning the bidding war for one of the offseason's most sought-after young players, the Oakland Athletics aren't in very good shape these days. Even with the expanded gate into the playoffs, Baseball Prospectus approximates that this year's team has barely a 1 percent chance (1.3% to be exact) of making it into the postseason.  

It's safe to say their team doesn't look all that great. Aside from that, two of their key opponents look amazing. Half the teams in their little four-team division beefed up during the winter and look like they're ready to compete for the World Series for the next who-knows-how-many years. Their home stadium is now officially the crappiest ballpark in the majors. I've seen analysts predicting the team to lose 90 or 100 games in 2012. Not very encouraging news for an A's fan.

Well, I'm an A's fan (although not a deep-rooted one) and I refuse to subscribe to all these graveyard scenarios for my favorite American League team. After all, I only started to follow the green-and-gold so I could have a competitive team to root for while my New York Mets were languishing during the early aughts. Now the A's haven't been in the playoffs since 2006 and they've been stuck around 75 wins every year since.

Continuing my short series of analyzing three teams of low regard (Mets, A's, and Padres) to try and find some glimmers of hope and optimism, let's now delve into these Oakland A's piece by piece. To reiterate, my aim is to discuss these teams through the eyes of an incorrigible optimist who is trying to remain as objective as possible. Since we're talking about the hapless A's, that makes me this guy.

World Serious

The story of this blog over the past few months has been that its author can't find the time to write on it. One of the reasons for this has been the exhilarating and absorbing finish to the baseball season, so with the World Series starting tonight I figure I must say a few things about it while I sit here in a coffeeshop/restaurant eating lunch.

Despite the negative feelings for the Cardinals I've expressed a few times on this blog, I will be rooting for them to win what should be an exciting series against the Texas Rangers. Why? Because the unprecedented run this team has been on since the beginning of September and on into the playoffs has swept me up into their bandwagon. And I really don't like the Texas Rangers.

The story for both teams is remarkably similar: high-scoring offense and deep bullpens. Both teams received minimal contributions from their starting pitchers throughout the playoffs, finding themselves calling upon relievers early on then mixing-and-matching throughout the games. Of course, as unpredictable as baseball always is, you can expect the starting pitchers to play the biggest role in this World Series.

Texas boasts an incredibly deep and potent offensive attack, with five straight excellent hitters bunched up in the middle of the lineup. Really, it'd be hard to put together a better lineup than theirs, perhaps the only weakness is that there are so many right-handed hitters (Josh Hamilton and David Murphy being the only lefties) and you can expect Tony LaRussa to exploit that with his slew of hard-throwing righty relievers. The Cardinals also have a terrific offense; they led the National League in runs, on-base percentage, OPS, and tied for the lead in slugging percentage. They are led by the best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols, and as Rany Jazayerli pointed out in his World Series preview, Pujols traditionally plays even better in the playoffs. I'm really looking forward to seeing the Rangers' late game flame-throwers having to face off against Pujols.

On the run-prevention side, the Texas defensive attack (baseball is the only sport where the defense has the ball so "attack" is apt) combines to be much better than the Cardinals. The lineups are so good that they kind of cancel each other out, but it's the run prevention part that separates these two teams so let's look at that real quick:

Rotation
The Rangers possess an extremely rare combination of three southpaw starters who are all capable of throwing in the mid-90s. The other guy, Colby Lewis, is right-handed and doesn't throw very hard but he's still a pretty damn good pitcher. The Cardinals counter with the righty/lefty combo of Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia atop their rotation, both of them succeed by keeping the ball low and generating ground balls. Their third starter Edwin Jackson is a very good pitcher (he has nearly identical strikeout-to-walk numbers compared to Carpenter and Garcia) but he really hasn't shown it lately, and fourth-starter Kyle Lohse isn't anything special at all but if he can keep the game close into the 5th inning, he'll have done his job. The Rangers have the clear advantage here.

Bullpen
General Manager Jon Daniels has assembled an absolutely fearsome bullpen here and they are a major part of why the Rangers are here in the World Series. As I already mentioned, it will be really exciting to watch closer Neftali Feliz pitch against the middle of this St. Louis lineup. The Cardinals also relied heavily on their bullpen on their way here, in fact, their funky bullpen is one of the reasons I've come to like these Cardinals. They've got some characters in there and they can all pitch. Jason Motte is the closer and he's one of the meanest looking guys in baseball with beady eyes and a lumberjack beard, his short-armed, explosive throwing motion and 100-mph heat amplifies his menacing aura. I think the pundits and analysts give the Rangers the advantage here but with LaRussa pushing the buttons and showing a clear willingness to break from conventional bullpen usage (the team's saves leader Fernando Salas pitched in the 3rd inning already in this postseason), the Cardinals have the edge.

Fielding
Not only is Albert Pujols the best hitter on the planet, he's also the best defensive first baseman in baseball and probably one of the best defensive players in all of baseball at any position. Yes, he is that good. The Cardinal catcher Yadier Molina is also one of the best players at his position but the rest of the St. Louis defense is very poor. Nick Punto is a punch-line in sabermetric circles for his poor hitting, but he's a great fielder and if he gets any starts for the Cards he'll certainly improve their D. The Rangers have a clear advantage here as they've got a great defense. The keystone combo of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler will certainly make some highlight reel double plays in this series and third baseman Adrian Beltre is one of my favorite players to watch in the field.

We saw what happened to the Brewers and their crappy defense in the NLCS, so it's certainly possible that the Cardinals might lose some games by not catching the ball. The Rangers as a team struck out fewer than anyone else in their league and the Cardinal pitchers usually don't strike out too many hitters anyway so there should be plenty of balls in play and plenty of opportunities for Lance Berkman to make a mess of things out in right field.

With the Cardinals having home field advantage (due to the National League winning the All-Star Game, if that makes any sense), a tactically superior manager, and the Albert Pujols factor, I think they make up for their shortcomings against an extremely well-rounded Texas team. The Rangers are favored to win and they look like a superior team on paper, but there's something about these Cardinals that reminds me of the 2004 Red Sox, a team that just looked like you could put them out on the field against anybody in any atmosphere and they would tough it out and find a way to win. Those Red Sox actually beat the Cardinals in the World Series that year in another matchup of powerhouse (the Cards won 105 games that year) versus Wild Card underdog, and the Red Sox steamrolled the birds in a sweep.

I think this shapes up to be one of the best World Series matchups we've seen in a long time and I would put my money on the Cardinals to win in a long series with many tough battles. My pick: Cardinals in 7.

(One last note: the title of this post comes from my old boss in San Diego. He had a very heavy Croatian accent despite three decades living here in the U.S. and he always pronounced World Series "World Serious." Also, it's common for people to think that American Major League Baseball is being conceited by calling its championship round the "world series" but the way I see it, the MLB teams feature the greatest players from all around the world competing against each other. That's why players from Japan and everywhere else come here to play in the major leagues. Just wanted to point that out.)

Pennant Picks

Baseball events often serve as a time marker for me. I can look back at past exciting or historic events happening in baseball games and recall where I was at the time, what was going on in my life or in the world at large.

I watched the first game of the Yankees-Mets Subway Series in 2000 on a little portable television in the back of a car while my dad drove me and some friends home from a Saturday evening hockey game in Long Island. When the Yanks and Red Sox started their marathon Game 7 in 2003 (eventually won by Aaron Boone's walkoff homer) I was playing a roller hockey game for my college team at an outdoor rink in Chelsea Piers. I saw the White Sox win the World Series in 2005 at Mickey Mantle's restaurant near Central Park while on a date with a girl from Italy. 

The last two Octobers I watched from the living room of my San Diego apartment and now I've witnessed the excitement of this year's pennant chase here in Austin. The classic deciding game Friday night between the Phillies and Cardinals will forever be etched in my memory as I watched it unfold in amazement while eating baked ziti and sipping beer at an overpriced bar/restaurant down the road. (I attempted to watch the first game of that series at another restaurant last week but once the Texas Longhorns game started, every television in the bar was switched to that crappy meaningless game against Iowa State and I was screwed. Will certainly always remember that, too.)

I wasn't alive in the late 1960s but from watching Ken Burns' baseball documentary over and over again, I've come to associate the baseball events going at that time with the social upheavals and global events going on at the same time. In that documentary series, each decade gets its own lengthy treatment and the 60s is by far my favorite. The Civil Rights movement, Vietnam, the assassination of JFK (and RFK, Malcolm X, and MLK) aren't ignored, in fact they are perfectly weaved in to the baseball events in that decade as Bob Gibson's Cardinals dominated the era, Carl Yastrzemski carried the Sox in '67, the Orioles built a powerhouse and Washington DC nearly burnt to the ground after rioting in response to the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Protesters burned their draft cards and choppers flew over the jungles of Saigon.

As incredible as the crescendo of this baseball season has been, it will always be associated in my mind with the movement springing up in downtown Manhattan (my former stomping grounds) and spreading across the nation, the peaceful uprising and dissent against oppressive oligarchy and austerity measures. I confess to being a severe baseball addict, but as exciting and engaging as it has all been this year, the Occupy Wall Street news has been competing for my attention since it began in mid-September. The baseball games have often absorbed me in transfixion but at the same time my thoughts are constantly with the people out sleeping on the cement in the cold New York autumn.

Now, on to the baseball...

It seemed like nothing could touch the melodrama and excitement of the regular season's conclusion, but then we witnessed a Divison Series that featured four tightly fought matchups, three of which went down to the final game, and two of which saw huge upsets. The Rays series only lasted four games but the last three of those were all nail-biters. Now the smoke has cleared and we're left with just four teams in matchups that look to be just as competitive and entertaining as anything we've seen all year. Here are some thoughts on the two series we will watch over the next week.

National League Championship Series
Cardinals (90-72) vs. Brewers (96-66)

The Brewers were a popular World Series pick but I don't think anybody imagined they would be in this position, facing their sworn enemies for the NL pennant. The Cardinals don't belong here. They lost their best pitcher before the season began, were written off as a contender in Spring Training, and were trailing the final playoff spot by 9 games in early September. When they managed to climb all the way back into it and win on the final day, that only guaranteed them a match against the best team in the major leagues, the 102-win Phillies. Well, they've slayed yet another dragon and here they are.

This looks to be an extremely close and exciting series. These two teams genuinely don't like each other, they had some bean ball incidents this summer, lots of trash talk, and they represent two different poles on the spectrum---the Cards are the gritty, scrappy veterans and the Brewers are young, loud-mouthed and here for the first time. The Cardinals have been doing this for a good 12 years now, this is their 6th appearance in an LCS during that span while the Brewers organization had not won a playoff series since 1982. At that time they were still in the American League, led by manager Harvey Keunn, they were known as "Harvey's Wallbangers" and they went all the way to the World Series where they lost to... the Cardinals! (Dan Okrent's great book 9 Innings covers those Brewers at length.)

On the field, the teams are closely matched in the rotation, bullpen, defense, and lineup. While the Brewers boast a superb top-three starting pitchers in Yovani Gallardo, Zack Grienke, and Shaun Marcum, the Cardinals' top-three are no slouches and perfectly capable of matching up against the much more heralded Milwaukee trio. Chris Carpenter leads the St. Louis bunch with his alliterative appellation and strike zone carving repertoire, young lefty Jaime Garcia put up basically the same numbers as Carpenter in fewer innings, and Edwin Jackson is capable of matching zeroes with anybody the Brewers have. Both teams run deep in the bullpen, too.

Both teams pack high-octane offenses mostly led, again, by superior trios. For Milwaukee it's Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks in the heart of the lineup while St. Louis relies on Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. Combined, those trios match up pretty well although maybe the Cards have a very slight edge. Outside of those, the role players seem to tilt in the Cardinals' favor. Third baseman David Freese would be a household name by now if he could ever stay healthy because the boy can hit. Yadier Molina emerged as one of the better hitting catchers in baseball this year, shortstop Rafael Furcal has looked like his old self in this postseason, and the Cardinals even boast a pretty strong bench (that micromanager Tony LaRussa loves to employ).

In comparison, the Brewers have a few more liabilities on offense. Guys like Casey McGehee, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jonathan Lucroy can pop out a homerun every now and then but they had poor seasons overall. Neither team is any good defensively, although I think analysts are sometimes a bit too overzealous in dismissing the Brewers in that respect.

Really, the teams are so closely matched that there's no way to pinpoint a particular weakness that will decide the series. It should be one for the ages, perhaps the best LCS since the Red Sox and Yankees in 2004. I prefer to see the Brewers win and they are my pick because they have homefield advantage but I think it will go all 7 games and feature plenty of fireworks.

American League Championship Series
Tigers (95-67) vs. Rangers (96-66)

This matchup, to me, looks closer than it really is. The Rangers are a far superior team, in fact, they were probably the best team in all of baseball this year (Baseball Prospectus has a rather complicated extraction that bears this out). Jon Daniels deserves a lot of credit, he was the youngest general manager in baseball history when he stepped into the role for the Rangers in 2005 at the age of 28, and he has built this team into a well-rounded, deep powerhouse.

Let me get this out of the way: I live in Texas right now and the team Daniels has assembled is an admirable one, but I'm not a fan of this team at all. Eric over at Pitchers & Poets recently wrote a nice piece about why he's pulling for the Rangers despite their shady associations (George W. Bush being the most prominent one) but I'm not falling for it. I'd certainly like to root for this team because of a guy like Jon Daniels and what he's done here, but I've been to the ballpark, I've watched this team for years as an Oakland A's fan and I just don't like them.

As I wrote earlier this year, the Detroit Tigers are a team that I can root for. They represent a decrepit, broken down and demoralized city that has hosted baseball since the beginning of the American League. Detroit is a rich sports town with a great baseball history. Texas? I couldn't watch a Texas Rangers playoff game at a bar because a fucking Texas-Iowa State college football game was on. I can't root for that kind of stupidity. Anywho...

The Rangers are an all-around powerhouse that can beat up any team and their dad. Adrian Beltre blasted three homeruns in one game the other day and he's probably the third-best hitter on this team (behind Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton). The lineup is absolutely scary. If there's one thing that might be in the Tigers' favor here, it's that there are so many right-handed hitters in the lineup and Detroit has an all-righty pitching staff but the Rangers don't seem to care what hand the pitcher throws with. They'll blast off against anybody. The Detroit offense can put up runs too, most of them will come from Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta is an interesting player not just because of the misplaced "h" in his name but because he seemingly resurrected his career in the Motor City and renewed his status as an offensive threat. Alex Avila, the rookie catcher, had a spectacular season at the plate but so far in the playoffs he hasn't shown up (just 1 hit in 16 at-bats).

Like every other part of this team, the Texas pitching staff runs deep. If five starters were needed in a playoff series, they could throw out five great ones, but they only need four so Alexi Ogando was put into the bullpen and we all saw what he's capable of last night (97 mph fastballs at the corners). This very interesting rotation boasts three tough lefties and a righty who remade himself after a stint in Japan. The Japanese league guy seems to be the only liability here as Colby Lewis followed up his superb 2010 campaign with an up-and-down season this year (he pitched fine, just gave up way too many homers). Detroit depends on their workhorse Justin Verlander, the easy Cy Young choice this season, but he seems to be losing steam this past month or so. They'll need him to pick it up and possibly pitch 3 times in this series if they hope to win. I predicted Max Scherzer would have a huge year for Detroit before the season, but he didn't. He pitched well with plenty of strikeouts but, like Colby Lewis, he surrendered a bunch of homeruns. I worried about that coming into the playoffs but Scherzer pitched great against the Yankees in two appearances so look for him to be a big part of this series.

Joaquin Benoit basically became a national hero with his heroic relief effort for Detroit against the Yankees to seal their demise in the previous round, and the Tigers do have a nice bullpen. But nothing comes close to this Rangers relief group. As I mentioned, they brought Alexi Ogando out of the pen in Game 1 yesterday and he was nearly untouchable. They also have two of the best relievers in baseball over the last few years, Mike Adams and Koeji Uehara, at their disposal and then flame-throwing Neftali Feliz as the final piece. Even their middle-relief or platoon pitching options are solid. It's gonna be really tough to score against the group late in the game.

I really don't like the Rangers but there's no denying how strong they are as a team. While I will be rooting hard for the underdog Detroit to knock them out, I don't realistically see it happening. My pick: Rangers in six.

2011 MLB Season Preview Part 4: AL West

As we move into the American League portion of these previews, I'm going to try and keep the entry for each team a bit shorter as it's taking me far too long to assemble these previews and I want to have it all completed before Opening Day which is...tomorrow!

AL West

Baseball's only four-team division looks like it'll be a three-team race this year. Oakland has brought in a bunch of bats, Texas is a new powerhouse, and the Angels won't stay down for long. The Mariners look terrible once again.

(Note: the PECOTA numbers are as they appeared on 3-25-11)

1. Athletics
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Over

This is my favorite American League team and I've been picking them to win the AL West each year for a while now.  They haven't won it since 2006 which was also the last time they played in the postseason. But the team has now established a(nother) strong trio of young front-end starters in Brett Anderson-Trevor Cahill-Gio Gonzalez. The team finished at exactly .500 last year, 81-81, with an anemic lineup and uncharacteristically shaky bullpen. They've completely revamped the lineup, adding three hitters who jump right into the 3-4-5 slots and pushing guys like Kurt Suzuki and Kevin Kouzamanoff down to the bottom of the order. Daric Barton established himself as an on-base machine (.393 OBP last year) atop the lineup and I think the overall result will be better run-production than the A's have had in many years.

The pitching looks to be strong again with a loaded bullpen and as long as they have the Ellis-Pennington combo at 2B/SS and Coco Crisp (if he's healthy) manning centerfield, this is a great defensive team. I've got them pegged for a big year, 87 wins and a playoff appearance.


2. Rangers
PECOTA: 85-77
My take: Even

The defending American League champs look strong once again this year. Adding Adrian Beltre to that lineup (as well as his superb defense in the field) will be a major boost to them. While this is an organization that looks to be prepared to compete for years to come, I think we'll see a tiny bit of regression from their 90 wins last season. Their pitching staff was outstanding last season, particularly the bullpen. If the two best starters, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, can match their excellence from last year, this team will be great again but I expect them both to fall back down to earth a bit. Same with the bullpen; while Neftali Feliz is an unquestionably superb pitcher, saving him only for the 9th inning and textbook "save situations" is a terrible waste of resources.

3. Angels
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over

My big brother John has been an Angels fan for something like 30 years so I commissioned him to share his thoughts on his favorite team's chances this year. Here's what he had to say:

Like every other Angels fan I am disappointed that they blew their money on paying off the rest of Vernon Wells' contract rather than overpaying for Carl Crawford. The fact that Boston chose Crawford out of all the big free agents of the last few years to really go overboard on should tell you that he was the guy to get.

But as far as 2011 goes, I feel the Angels have the widest degree of possible outcomes of any team out there. They might win 90 games or they might only win 72. Neither would surprise me.

Peter Bourjos' range knows no bounds

The key may be Peter Bourjos. He is another monster defensive centerfielder in the Gary Pettis and Devon White tradition. With him running down everything in sight out there (giving the Angels a full season of improved defensive efficiency %) and if the Angels deep farm system burps up a couple of talents a little early, they could receive a big boost. If Wells has one of his sporadic good years, and if Mike Scioscia can work his magic again where the Angels exceed the expected Pythagorean wins and then they use their money to take overpaid talent off the hands of some teams having disappointing seasons, then bam: 90+ wins.

I also expect the Rangers to regress (and Seattle to improve) based on the Plexiglass Principle. The A’s are just too poor and every free agent that Billy Beane signs never seems to work out. So the division is there for the taking.

But if the Angels' old players suddenly decline like old players do, and they get a couple of key injuries, some pitchers disappoint and they start slow, then they’ll stink.

My own guess for this group is right in the middle of that huge variance of possible outcomes John speaks of. I say 83 wins.

4. Mariners
PECOTA: 70-92
My take: Under

It seems like they can't possibly be as horrifically bad as last year. As shown in Baseball Prospectus 2011, they put up one of the 15 worst offensive seasons since 1954 last season (as measured by True Average). Things can only get better, right? Well, the team didn't really do much to improve the offense during the offseason. They brought in Jack Cust (a Three True Outcomes favorite of mine but not a reliable hitter) to be their designated hitter and catcher Miguel Olivo who, for his career, has an OPS+ of 86, sixteen percent below the league average. On the other hand, it is reasonable to expect that hitters like Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez will see improvement. First baseman Justin Smoak was terrible after coming over in a trade last year but, as a first-year player having to adapt to the big leagues while also adapting to a brand new organization, he can be forgiven for his poor performance. I expect him to at least get on base a little bit more this season. And, of course, the amazing Ichiro is a guarantee to knock 200 hits.

The offense will be a little better but I actually think the pitching will be worse. Behind Cy Young award-winner Felix Hernandez, this rotation looks like crap. Rookie right-hander Michael Pineda ought to be fun to watch but this is also his first taste of the big leagues and so we don't know what to expect. With some regression on the mound balancing out the inevitable offensive improvement, I see them around 65 wins this year.

MLB 2010 Midseason Thoughts: American League

Standings are as of this morning.

AL West
Texas      --
Los Angeles (of Anaheim!)  4.5
Oakland 9.5
Seattle  16

At the halfway point, the division is not nearly as close as I expected it to be. Seattle has been terrible (I was right about that!) but so have my Oakland A's, the team I predicted to win the division. The Angels have played well despite injuries but the Rangers are a virtual lock to take this division. They're the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+82) and they've just added one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, Cliff Lee, to shore up the rotation which has been their only real weak spot.

With the A's languishing amid their usual spate of injuries and limp bats, the Rangers are going to become one of the gladiators I'll be rooting for to topple the Yankee monster. They've already beaten the Yanks in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

AL Central
Detroit   --
Chicago  0.5
Minnesota   3
Kansas City  9
Cleveland   14

I'm glad to see this is once again a three team battle. Chicago started out terribly but has burst back into contention over the past month or so and as I write this they've won 6 straight games. They'll be without Jake Peavy for the rest of the year though after he suffered a detachment of his shoulder muscle. Rookie Daniel Hudson (10 K vs 3 BB per 9 IP in the minors this year) looks like an able-bodied replacement for Peavy and so their pitching should remain strong, but they'll have to add a bat if they want to stay in the race for the rest of the year.

Detroit has succeeded with a deep offense led by Miguel Cabrera's huge season (he's in the top 2 of each Triple Crown stat category) and a surprisingly explosive big league introduction from rookie left fielder Brennan Boesch (astronomical .600 slugging so far although he'll probably come back to Earth soon). If their mediocre pitching picks up the slack, they can win the division but I think Minnesota is still the favorite. The Twins need to stop punting the third base position with Nick Punto (72 OPS+) and acquire someone with some semblance of hitting ability for that spot. Otherwise, I'm happy to see both Delmon Young (.339/.504 OBP/SLG) finally fulfilling his promise and Francisco Liriano returning to dominance (9.81 K/9 IP, 3rd in the AL). Joe Mauer's power outage (just 4 homers) is worrisome but he's still great and Justin Morneau has played like an MVP and kept that Twinkie offense afloat.

AL East
New York  --
Tampa Bay  3
Boston   5.5
Toronto  12
Baltimore  18

The Yanks are once again the best team in baseball (surprise!) as they've got the most wins (55) and the best run differential (+114). Yesterday morning, rumors had a Cliff Lee-to-New York deal all but completed but thankfully it fell apart. Adding one of the best pitchers in baseball to the best team in the league just does not seem fair. Now, hopefully Lee continues his dominant streak against the Yanks by toppling them in the playoffs.

The Red Sox have been a fun team to follow and root for as they've suffered an unbelievable amount of injuries but deftly plugged the holes with temporary parts. I've enjoyed every minute of the Big Papi Resurgence, Adrian Beltre has been superb, and Kevin Youkilis just keeps truckin' along as one of the best but least appreciated (he's an all-star snub) hitters in the league.

What's interesting about this division is that not only have the Red Sox barely played at all with their full roster, but the Yankees and Rays haven't gotten top production from their key players as of yet. New York's offensive leaders have been Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher while A-Rod, Texeira, and Jeter have played below their established levels of performance. For the Rays, Carlos Peña is on pace for 100 walks but his OBP right now is .321, James Shields has given up nearly 5 runs per game, and BJ Upton's mediocre-at-best performance has significantly lowered our hopes of what he can become. But yet all three teams have great records. It'll be fun to watch how things play out when (or if) Boston's cavalry comes back, the Yankees perform on all cylinders, and the Rays regain the historically awesome form they showed at the beginning of the year. I still like the Rays to win the division and the Sox the Wild Card but it'll be a pretty dang exciting race.

AL MVP thus far: Justin Morneau, Twins
His monster season (.345/.437/.618 BA/OBP/SLG) has carried along an underperforming Twins offense and kept them in the mix of a very tight AL Central. If you'll allow me to get all nerdy on you for a moment: his 46.2 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is currently 2nd in all of baseball, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is first.

AL Cy Young thus far: Cliff Lee, Mariners/Rangers
Most of the frontline pitchers have 17 or 18 starts by this point. Lee started the season a bit late because of an injury and so he's only had 13 starts but he's still in the mix of all the pitching leaderboards. He leads the league in complete games, ERA, WHIP, and his nearly 15-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is just absurd. The next best in that category is the eminent Roy Halladay with 6.61-to-1. Some regression is expected as he throws more innings, especially in the Texas summer heat (and that bandbox of a stadium), but up til now nobody in the AL has pitched nearly as well as this guy has.

Some early season thoughts on Padres, Athletics, Mets

I haven't written any baseball posts since my Season Preview and now that we're more than 30 games in I'd like to take a look at my three favorite teams.

San Diego Padres
Record: 22-12
Run differential: +45

They've been the baseball season's biggest surprise so far, starting the season as a projected last place team but with 34 games played they're comfortably in first place in their division and have the best record in the National League. Today they finished off a sweep of the Giants (again) on the road with a nearly perfect game pitched by Mat Latos.

I spoke very highly of the Padres' chances in my preseason predictions but I couldn't have imagined they would burst out of the gates with the second best start to a season in franchise history. Their bullpen has been the best in baseball so far and they've gotten great work out of a rotation that wasn't supposed to be very good but Jon Garland has pitched great (although a bit over his head), Mat Latos is getting better with each start (complete game one-hitter today), and lefties Wade LeBlanc and Clayton Richard have done surprisingly well. The offense doesn't look quite so good, though. Adrian Gonzalez (.265/.383/.453) hasn't heated up yet and for as great as Chase Headley's looked thus far, he's got a sub-.400 slugging percentage. I'm waiting for Kyle Blanks to gain some composure (41 strikeouts already in 89 at-bats) and start mashing like he did last year and the rest of the outfield has been weak enough at the plate that the local paper was making a case for the team to sign Jermaine Dye this week.

They've won with great pitching, defense (second-best UZR in baseball), and baserunning (league-leading 44 steals) which must make the baseball classicists feel warm inside. But can they keep us this up for very long? I'm a fan, I go see their games all the time, but I don't think so. The Dodgers and Rockies, the division's projected powerhouses, stumbled to start the year but the Padres have lost both series they've played against the Rockies so far and they haven't even played the Dodgers yet. The boys in blue are in San Diego for a weekend series and they've won their last 4, should be a fun weekend (too bad I'll be in New York for the next four days). I stand by my prediction of the Dodgers winning the division, but they have to get over their weird affection for washed up pitchers (Jeff Weaver, Ramon/Russ Ortiz). The offense is there and, despite the worries of their fans, I think the pitching staff will be fine with the top 3 of Kershaw-Billingsley-Kuroda. Crafty young righthander (you don't hear that description too often) John Ely looked good in his first three starts and I'm hoping he sticks around for the year.

Oakland A's
Record: 18-17
Run differential: -2

Similar to the Padres, they got off to great start and beat up on division rivals but they ran into a tough stretch where the AL East beasts smacked them around a little bit until Dallas Braden's world-shocking perfect game against the Rays this past Sunday. They've suffered their usual injuries already (Brett Anderson, Mark Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Coco Crisp, and more) but have stayed competitive mainly due to strong pitching, defense, and baserunning (just like the Pads).

Daric Barton is finally playing as good as he'd been expected to for a few years and he's become my favorite player. His at-bats are fun to watch; a very composed hitter, he's got an excellent batting eye never seeming to swing at anything out of the strike zone, draws a ton of walks (his .400 OBP is 10th in the American League), and smacks line drives all over the place. He's not hitting for the type of power you'd hope for in a first baseman but his on-base percentage is so good that it makes up for the lack of power. A perfect Billy Beane player.

Although they eventually lost 2-1, the Athletics played an excellent game against the Rangers on the road today in which they executed two shortstop-to-catcher plays at the plate, the second one a game saver. I watch a hell of a lot of baseball and it seems like teams mess up that simple play often but the A's executed to perfection. They're a crisp defensive team (although Coco Crisp hasn't manned the outfield pastures yet) that rarely makes mistakes behind a strong pitching staff.

Designated hitter/third baseman Eric Chavez was once my favorite player in baseball. He remains the only player whose baseball jersey I've ever bought (I have a few nameless team jerseys, though) but he's been an immense disappointment after signing a huge contract, sitting out with a multitude of injuries for the last 4 years now. He's back and he's healthy but he absolutely sucks (.660 OPS with 1 homerun). Presumably because of his huge contract, he's been the team's regular DH. This has to change. It bothers me that Jack Cust, one of the best hitters on the team, is playing in Triple-A right now. They've also got Chris Carter, a slugging prospect, waiting to come up and knock in some runs. The division doesn't look as tight as it was expected to be (the Mariners don't score enough to compete) but if the A's are serious about winning it they've got to insert a real hitter into that DH spot.

New York Mets
Record: 18-17
Run differential: +15

This team looks alot different with Ike Davis at first base. They just don't seem nearly as bad as I thought they would be with an on-base machine like Ike manning first. He's only played 22 games but I think the 23-year-old Davis is the real deal, maybe a bit short in the power department but that will come as he gets more major league at bats. David Wright looks like himself again (7 homers, .525 slugging) even though the sports audience in New York never stops whining about him. And even the pitching staff has been good, especially the bullpen (2nd best reliever ERA in the league). My main complaint is manager Jerry Manuel and his inability to grasp simple baseball concepts, most glaringly with his lineup selection. It's simple: the higher a player bats in the order, the more chances he will get in a game and over the season as a whole. Therefore, the best hitters should bat highest in the order, putting them in a position to get the most chances. David Wright, by far the best hitter on the team, continually bats 5th in the order. Ike Davis and his .400 OBP bats 6th. Jose Reyes, whose been the leadoff sparkplug for this team his entire career, has been inserted into the #3 spot for some ridiculous reason while Manuel regularly leads off with Angel Pagan, a solid player who I like very much but who definitely should not bat ahead of the likes of Reyes, Wright, Davis or even Jason Bay. Manuel even puts Alex Cora (.316 OBP this year, .313 career) in the #2 spot often! It's insane!

Whining about the batting order is minor, though. Most studies show that batting order makes a relatively minimal difference over the year but in a division with the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and even surprisingly strong Nationals, they need to have their best hitters come to the plate more often.

I'm off to the eastern seaboard for the weekend and most likely won't post for a little while.

2010 MLB Season Preview Part 4: AL West

Before we continue our series, I'd like to point out that the baseball blog Wezen-ball has a predictions contest going on where everybody can submit their choices for who will win each division (as well as MVPs, World Series winners and all that good stuff). It's a pretty cool set-up actually with one community spreadsheet where everybody can make their entries and look at who others have picked. I've entered my picks but, with the restraints of making sure every game is accounted for when all the win-loss records are added up, it made things much harder. I tried my best to transcribe the picks I've already made here but some minor adjustments had to be made to their records at times. No biggie. So, we move on to the American League today with possibly the hardest division to predict.

AL West
Take your pick. There are four teams: three of them are poised to enter the playoff picture after spending the last few seasons rebuilding. The other one has won the the last three division titles and 5 out of the last 6. The Angels won 97 games last year and won the division by 10 games over 2nd place Texas, but a look at everyone's Pythagorean records (as listed in Baseball Prospectus 2010) shows a much closer spread:

2009 AL West
Angels 87-75
Rangers 85-77
Mariners 83-79
Athletics 82-80

A five-game spread between first and last place. BP's depth chart page (featuring the PECOTA forecasts I've been referencing in the division previews) shows another close race with the A's and Rangers tying for the lead with 83 wins, Seattle at 82 and the Angels with 78. Again, a five-game spread between the division winner and cellar-dweller. CHONE's projection looks very different, showing the Mariners in last with only 78 wins and the Rangers running away with the division at 86 wins. Here's how I see it all playing out...

1. Athletics
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Over

Similar to the NL West, the division is so ultra-competitive this year that I expect everybody's records to suffer. There will not be a 90-game winner in the AL West this season. Not even 85 wins, I'm predicting the A's to take the division with 84. From top to bottom, their pitching corps looks superb. They've got five above-average starters penciled into the rotation and when (not if) someone gets hurt, there's almost an entire back-up rotation of arms prepared to provide league-average innings. Behind them, Billy Beane has once again assembled what should be one of the league's best bullpens. While Seattle has gotten so much attention for its defensive attributes and the Rangers praise for finally showing they can assemble a pitching staff, the A's still have the best pitching in the division.

Offensively, they're a different story. While there probably won't be any one glaring weakspot in their lineup, nobody is going to mash 30 homers, maybe not even 25. Jack Cust remains their biggest power threat and they've added Kevin Kouzmanoff who, while moving to another park that suppresses offense, will at least be relieved to escape PETCO Park which is by far the worst park in baseball for hitters. Daric Barton will get probably his last chance to show that he can hit and he's looked pretty good in Spring Training. I'm rooting for him to do well but the A's have minor league firstbaseman Chris Carter waiting in the wings who PECOTA thinks can hit 27 homers if he played a full season in the majors this year. One of my favorite players of all time, Eric Chavez, will also get a shot to play some firstbase after missing significant time with various injuries the past few years and there's an outside chance he'll provide some offensive value too. Lately, they've begun to place more emphasis on speed and will have Rajai Davis and Coco Crisp wreaking havoc on the bases. It won't be much, but it will be enough to back up their pitching and win a tight race by a hair.


2. Rangers
PECOTA: 83-79
My take: Even
A tough team to project. They should have a very strong bullpen and will definitely put up runs but the rotation, which finally looked good last year, looks very shaky to start the season. I love Rich Harden, he's one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball, but he hasn't reached 150 innings in a season since 2004 and he is supposed to anchor the rotation. Scott Feldman was terrific last year but a regression is expected. Other than that, there's really nothing to get excited about unless they eventually plug either of their two young flamethrowers (Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz) into the starting rotation but they'll probably allow the other guys to crash and burn first.

The offense, which faltered a bit last year (.255 EqA) has much more reason for optimism. A bounceback is expected from Josh Hamilton who suffered a bunch of nagging injuries last year, Ian Kinsler is a beast, Michael Young is consistently around the 200-hit mark, Nelson Cruz exploded last year and should keep it up, Chris Davis is a popular candidate to have a huge year, and they've added Vlad the Impaler. If Vlad stays in the lineup enough to get 500 at-bats this will be one of the best offenses in the game. In this division, though, I peg them for 83 wins.

3. Angels
PECOTA: 78-84
My take: Over

Reports of the Angels' demise have been overstated. They lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero during the offseason but I think they've found some able replacements. Figgins played a big role atop their lineup last year, getting on base like crazy ahead of their sluggers. Bobby Abreu will still be up at the top of the lineup drawing lots of walks and they still have Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter who were the team's two best hitters (.298 and .296 EqA, respectively) in its offensive resurgence last year. They went out and picked up Hideki Matsui who should get on base plenty and also smack a few homers and perpetual prospect Brandon Wood will finally get an opportunity to play, replacing Figgins at third. The lineup now has less speed but they will still certainly still hit. The main question mark is supposed to be their pitching. Lackey's replacement Joel Piniero actually had about the same value as Lackey did last year (2.7 WARP compared to 3.3) and everybody else from a strong 2009 starting rotation returns. Jered Weaver should continue his ascent and Scott Kazmir/Ervin Santana have the potential to put together good seasons if healthy. The bullpen carries a shaky reputation because they no longer have Francisco Rodriguez pitching the 9th inning and, collectively, the unit got off to a horrible start last year. But, as Baseball Prospectus 2010 points out, they were actually the 2nd-best bullpen in the league from May 1st on. I expect them to be in the mix all season but finish just out of first place, relinquishing their crown. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them hold on to it, though.

4. Mariners
PECOTA: 82-80
My take: Under
The A's and Rangers are organizations stacked with budding young talent that will enable them to be competitive for the long run. The Angels are the perennial division winner trying desperately to maintain their hold on the top spot. The Mariners, on the other hand, have slowly constructed a catapultation device with the aim of flinging themselves up to the top of the division this year ahead of everybody else. They're ready to win now and they may never be quite as ready. A renaissance of defense carried them to 85 wins last year and they were the most active team this past offseason, scooping up a table-setter (Chone Figgins), another ace (Cliff Lee), and an enigmatic slugger (Milton Bradley). Is it enough to win them the division? Probably. But I don't think they'll do it.


I love the moves they've made, Figgins was a perfect pick-up for a team that doesn't get on base and I've always liked Milton Bradley (I look at him as my generation's Dick Allen) but I just don't think it's enough to resurrect the American League's worst offense from 2009.  The combination of Cliff Lee and superstar Felix Hernandez is scary but the rest of the pitching staff is not. The Mariner defense was out of this world last season and it is just for that reason that I expect them to regress a bit in that area this year. Above all, the Mariners are a perfect candidate for what is called the "Plexiglass Principle" which states that a team that significantly improves (or declines) one season has a tendency to bounce back in the opposite direction the year after. Seattle won only 61 games in 2008 and jumped all the way to 85 last year. They'll be a fun team to watch but expect them to bounce back down to earth a bit.